Iranian MPs file impeachment motions against economy and oil ministers

The announcement signals a continued emphasis on the administration’s tough approach on Tehran but comes with Trump’s acknowledgment of past tensions with his appointee.

“I am pleased to announce Morgan Ortagus as Deputy Special Presidential Envoy for Middle East Peace… Early on Morgan fought me for three years, but hopefully has learned her lesson,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “She will hopefully be an asset to Steve [Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East].”

Ortagus is recognized as a significant figure in US foreign policy, serving as the State Department spokesperson during Trump’s presidency. In this role, she communicated US positions on global issues, often focusing on Iran, China, and the Middle East.

She expressed hope in a tweet after being appointed that under Trump peace and stability will return to the Middle East.

A hardline approach to Iran

Ortagus consistently echoed and defended the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran. This policy aimed to isolate Tehran diplomatically and economically following the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2018.

Ortagus argued that the sanctions undermined Iran’s ability to fund regional proxy groups and its missile development program.

She supported the US exit from the JCPOA, describing the agreement as inadequate in addressing Iran’s regional interventions and nuclear ambitions.

"Under the current trajectory, the Iranian regime will get a nuclear weapon in the next administration unless we have a president with the fortitude to stop it," said Ortagus in an exclusive interview with Iran International in June.

Ortagus highlighted the US’s backing of domestic protests in Iran, attributing the country’s economic and social struggles to the government’s policies.

"Khamenei's thugs killed 1,500 Iranians on the streets of Iran last November,” Ortagus wrote, quoting one of Khamenei's tweets in August 2020. “At least 23 were children. They deserved freedom and a future.”

She was referring to the fall of 2019, when widespread protests broke out across Iran following a sudden threefold increase in gas prices. Thousands of protesters were arrested. Many victims sustained gunshot wounds to the upper chest, indicating that security forces were operating under shoot-to-kill orders.

Ortagus has consistently portrayed Iran’s missile program as a global threat and accused Tehran of supporting militant groups.

Joining a team led by Steve Witkoff, Ortagus’s appointment comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. Her focus on pressuring Tehran aligns with Trump’s broader foreign policy objectives.

In the past three weeks, at least three well-known female artists have made headlines by unveiling in public as an act of civil disobedience.

On December 30, renowned 62-year-old visual artist Bita Fayazi gained widespread attention on social media when she cut the ribbon to inaugurate a government-sponsored art exhibition with her scarf tied around her neck instead of covering her curly gray hair. Some other female participants at the ceremony, mostly young women, also did not cover their hair.

The Ceramic Art Biennial event was held at Niavaran Cultural Center, a bustling center of cultural activities and exhibitions governed by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance in the north of the capital.

There are no reports of ministry officials or others at the event objecting to Fayazi’s unveiling during the ceremony. She has not clarified whether it was a planned protest against compulsory hijab or an impromptu act.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-linked Fars News Agency slammed the ministry for the incident at the Niavaran Cultural Center which it described as a “de-stigmatization of unveiling”. Similarly, the Mehr News Agency, affiliated with the state-run Islamic Propaganda Organization, labeled Fayazi’s act “limitless norm-breaking”. 

A few days earlier, on December 26, Goli Emami, a prominent author and translator, walked on the stage at an event organized by an Iranian publishing house at Ivan-e Shams Hall in Tehran to receive the IranKetab Literary Award for her lifetime of literary work.

Emami, 82, who received a standing ovation from the audience, was not even wearing a token scarf around her neck when she accepted her award. 

Such defiance of the compulsory hijab, even at government-sponsored events, was unimaginable before the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran's morality police in September 2022.

Amini’s death sparked several months of nationwide protests. The 22-year-old Amini was arrested on the street by morality patrols, not for defiance of hijab, but because some of her hair was showing from under her headscarf.

Since then, the number of women who refuse to wear the compulsory hijab in public has grown significantly. Social media reports indicate that seeing unveiled women, even in very conservative religious cities such as Qom and Mashhad, no longer surprises anyone.

Music and dance have become powerful tools for Iranian women to challenge the Islamic governance that has prohibited solo singing and public dancing by women for over four decades.

The hijab-free concert by singer Parastoo Ahmadi on December 12 at an empty caravansary which she streamed live on YouTube, was as groundbreaking as the one-woman anti-hijab protest of Vida Movahed, a young mother of 32, on Revolution Avenue in Tehran seven years ago, that was the first symbolic act of defiance catching the public's imagination.

At her “virtual concert”, Ahmadi, 27, not only had no head covering but also wore a black gown that revealed her bare shoulders. She was arrested and arraigned but was later freed on bail.

Female actresses have been spearheading the anti-compulsory hijab movement since the Woman, Life, Freedom protests at the cost of imprisonment, being banned from working and losing their passports.

"Simply put, Syria served as a kind of backbone and connector for the axis of resistance, playing an unparalleled role in any potential offensive against the northern front of Palestine. However, within the framework of the strategic ideology, this role has now been transferred to Yemen following the loss of Syria," he said.

Iran-backed militias in the region have become weaker as Israel has launched attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah, both part of what Iran calls the Resistance Axis. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have escalated their attacks. Since October 7, they have fired drones and missiles almost daily toward Israel, describing these actions as solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. They have also made commercial traffic unsafe in the Red Sea by targeting vessels moving to or from the Suez Canal.

In September, Iran International reported that approximately 300 Palestinian and Yemeni fighters were undergoing military training inside Iran, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Last week, the United Nations Security Council warned Iran against further escalations by the Houthis, the Tehran-allied armed group in Yemen.

"If residential consumption drops by just 10%, more gas can be directed to industrial units," said Ahmad Mahdavi Abhari, Secretary General of the Petrochemical Industry Employers Association. He made the remarks during a signing event between the National Petrochemical Company and two petrochemical facilities.

Mahdavi also criticized the Ministry of Oil for delays in finalizing investment contracts for petrochemical companies in the upstream gas sector. He urged the government to expedite these agreements to support the industry during this critical time.

Meanwhile, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said on Wednesday that Iran needs $45 billion in investment to tackle its persistent winter energy shortages and worsening air pollution.

The funds are vital for boosting gas production to meet the targets outlined in Iran's long-term development plan, which informs the country's budgets and industrial policies.

"According to the Seventh Development Plan, gas production must reach 1.4 billion cubic meters per day," Paknejad said. "To achieve this goal, $45 billion of investment is required."

He added that most of the funding must be directed toward developing gas fields and upgrading related infrastructure. However, he did not mention Iran's difficulty in securing advanced Western technology for boosting gas extraction at its main fields in the Persian Gulf.

Successive Iranian governments have struggled to cope with rising consumption, particularly during the colder months when power plants often rely on polluting fuels, further exacerbating air quality issues in urban areas.

85-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's method of projecting power abroad and tightening his grip at home appeared to be working.

What a difference a year makes.

Tehran's affiliates Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah have been decimated by Israel while Islamist rebels hostile to Iran toppled Syria's Assad dynasty, a key ally.

Iran is now adrift in a decisive year, Kamran Matin, an international relations scholar at the University of Sussex told the Eye for Iran podcast.

“All of this has come together and created a very difficult environment for the Islamic Republic, all of which is even more difficult to deal with in light of the Supreme leader's deteriorating health and his age,” said Matin.

Iran’s regional and international strategy is closely tied to how it can control and shore up influence domestically.

Part of the modus operandi of the Iranian system is to blame domestic troubles on sanctions and regional conflicts, promising that investment in nuclear infrastructure and militant proxies can buttress its standing in a dangerous neighborhood.

That rationale, Matin said, has evaporated and the mystique of Iran’s regional strength has lost its luster.

There have been 54 anti-government protests in Iran since Dec 26 and Jan 2 of this year according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington DC-based think tank critical of the Islamic Republic.

Iran now faces a sobering realization of its diminished stature.

Race for a deal, or the bomb?

Up against deepening economic malaise as Iran’s currency slips to new lows, an energy crisis which has stoked protests and the loss of regional muscle which deterred enemies, Iran’s rulers now have limited options.

They are at a crossroads, with each path presenting huge risks: race toward a nuclear bomb as an ultimate security guarantee or make concessions to President Donald Trump and compromise the state's very raison d'etre as a scourge of empire.

The answer may hinge on Trump’s plan for Tehran, a country that according to American intelligence has allegedly plotted to kill him.

The president-elect, who has surrounded himself with Iran hawks for his next administration has suggested bombing Iran into “smithereens" for the alleged assassination attempt.

At the very least, Trump will likely apply maximum pressure and more economic sanctions on an already crippled economy, which would squeeze Iran's rulers further.

“It's unclear how Iran is able to negotiate with some sort of strength to be able to extract any concession from the United States and Western powers,” said Matin.

Iranian officials and state media Iran moot talks with Trump more eagerly, tamping down their former rhetoric of resistance and confrontation.

That could signal fear amongst the ruling elite and an understanding of their weakened position, said Matin.

In a speech last month after the collapse of Assad, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed a somber crowd, blaming Israel and the United States for Iran not intervening to save its ally.

“Khamenei basically declared this impotence that American and Israelis had closed all the roads and so on and so forth,” said Matin on the speech, which was devoid of Khamenei's usual affirmations of strength.

The last standing in the Axis of Resistance - the Houthis

The Islamic Republic's woes may mean an opening for the Americans like never before that could force Iran to bargain away its regional satrapies, or face attack.

“Trump is much more willing to take on Iran, given how Israel has basically neutralized Iran's proxy forces,” said Matin on the changing tides.

Yemen's Houthis, Iran's last relatively robust military ally, will likely be a priority.

The Iran-backed group has fired drones and missiles towards Israel frequently for over a year, describing it as an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Maritime Attack Tracker recently tallied 106 confirmed Houthis strikes on shipping since November 2023.

"There have been many more attacks recently on (the Houthis) by Israel and the US-led coalition," Matin said.

"So it may well be that they will also be pacified over time, especially if Iran itself is weakened. And maybe one of the elements in the future talks between Iran and the US would be Iran stopping its supply of advanced weapons to Houthis."

Indirect impact of Trump: a loss of Russia for Iran?

The return of president-elect Trump to the White House will likely mean yet more bad news for Iran’s Islamic establishment.

One of Trump’s first goals is to fulfill his promise to end the war in Ukraine.

If Trump follows through as he is forecasted to, Iran will lose leverage with key ally Russia, another partnership that helped it project power on the world stage.

That would lead to another major blow to the Islamic Republic.

“Russia is likely to restore its damaged relations with the West, with the United States in particular," Matin said. "That also means in turn that Russia does not necessarily need to accommodate Iran's demands or needs in order to keep Iran on board in terms of supplying drones and other weapons to Russia to be used in Ukraine.”

Ukraine's foreign ministry in early September said Russia had launched 8,060 Iran-developed Shahed drones at Ukraine since 2022, according to a Reuters report.

Syria, formerly an Iranian satellite state, was another issue binding Moscow and Tehran.

"Both of them were involved supporting Assad regime. Neither of them are there anymore. What really binds Iran and Russia together is this wider tension each of these countries have with the West, with the United States,” Matin said.

It seems with Iran's dwindling influence, domestic unrest and battered allies throughout the region, 2025 is poised to be a decisive year for Tehran.

To watch the full Eye for Iran episode with Kamran Matin, click on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any other major podcast platform.