Iran International
Iran's energy-rich government is bracing for potential unrest amid rolling blackouts and rising gasoline prices, with judicial, security and intelligence services briefed to be ready for a response.
On Monday, the head of Iran’s judiciary instructed the Attorney General and provincial prosecutors to coordinate with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies to prevent unrest, sensing widespread public dissatisfaction over power and gas outages.
Speaking during a meeting of the Supreme Judicial Council, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei stated, “The Attorney General and prosecutors across the country, in direct cooperation with the intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies, should take all appropriate measures and arrangements to stabilize and strengthen the security of the people and citizens, and, as in the past, and even with greater firmness, take the relevant measures so that the enemy's conspiracy to create insecurity…is neutralized."
Ejei, widely recognized as one of Iran’s most prominent human rights violators, warned President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration that the recent wave of nationwide shutdowns caused by air pollution and the government’s failure to meet energy demands could spell unrest. People are struggling to heat their homes in the bitter cold while the cost of living is soaring amid the worst economic recession in the Islamic Republic's history.
The government is bracing itself for action reminiscent of the 2019 and 2022 protests in which hundreds of Iranians were killed by security forces and tens of thousands were arrested.
Facing a 30% shortfall in natural gas supplies from its Persian Gulf fields, the Iranian government has turned to burning the highly polluting heavy oil mazut, shrouding Tehran and other cities in dense smog.
Years of under-investment in the energy sector, exasperated by technology sanctions by the West, has pushed Iran into a downward spiral in natural gas production.
Gas pressure is falling in its main production field in the Persian Gulf that it shares with Qatar. Only the largest Western oil companies have the technological capability to remedy the situation.
The Pezeshkian government has limited options to address the crisis, apart from a complete overhaul of the country’s foreign policy and opening its economy to global engagement.
The latest wave of economic and public sector shutdowns, which began on December 9, has led to widespread closures of schools, universities, and government offices across many provinces.
The electricity and fuel crisis, combined with a sharp decline in the national currency’s value since September, has fueled an increasingly volatile public mood.
Iranians are facing daily price hikes while also witnessing a series of regional setbacks for the government. The most unexpected blow was the rapid overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, which forced Iranian forces to retreat from Syria, reportedly with Russian assistance.
Recent statements saying that the government is in touch with Syria's new ruling parties reflects possible concern about the perception of its diminishing authority and credibility among the population, both following the debacle in Syria and the deteriorating economic conditions at home.
On Sunday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech warning that those within Iran who align themselves with foreign powers, particularly the United States, would face severe consequences.
During the 2022 protests, triggered by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested for not wearing her hijab properly, Khamenei blamed the US and foreign powers of having stoked the fires of protests.
"The fools smell the scent of kebab," Khamenei said on Sunday, using a metaphor to describe what he sees as misguided ambitions from those seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic. "Anyone inside the country who chooses to serve the Americans, the Iranian people will trample them underfoot."
Since Khamenei explicitly said that he was speaking as the leader of the Islamic Republic and not offering an analysis, his words could signal that hostility toward Syria’s new government is now official policy for the Islamic Republic. This may serve as a directive for the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign operations branch.
This speech, Khamenei’s 1,936th during his 35-year tenure, delivered a clear message about the Islamic Republic’s position on Syria's new administration. While many regional nations have expressed hope for peace and stability in Syria, Khamenei underscored the need to oppose the new government, essentially advocating for its overthrow.
"The young Syrian has nothing to lose. His university is unsafe, his school is unsafe, his home is unsafe, his street is unsafe, his life is unsafe. What should he do? He must stand strong and determined against those who designed this insecurity and those who implemented it, and God willing, he will triumph over them," Khamenei said.
Khamenei also denied the existence of proxy groups tied to the Islamic Republic, even though such groups are widely recognized globally as Iran’s proxies. Organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and Hashd al-Shaabi have openly acknowledged their dependence on and allegiance to Iran.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, who was recently killed in an Israeli strike, repeatedly affirmed that Hezbollah relies entirely on Iran for its financial, military, and logistical support. This dependency is not unique to Hezbollah. Both the Houthis and Hamas have frequently acknowledged receiving financial and military assistance from Iran. Mahmoud al-Zahar, a senior Hamas leader, once disclosed that during a visit to Tehran, Qasem Soleimani personally handed him $22 million in cash, which Hamas representatives transported back to Gaza in suitcases. These statements from the leaders of these groups directly challenge Khamenei’s assertions that these forces operate independently and are not proxies of Iran.
Khamenei further claimed that the Islamic Republic does not need proxies and is capable of acting directly against the US and Israel if necessary. This assertion contradicts his admission just ten days earlier in another speech, where he acknowledged that Iran’s efforts to support Bashar al-Assad were thwarted by Israeli and US air forces.
Not only did Khamenei deny the existence of Iran's proxy forces, but he also refused to acknowledge the evident setbacks faced by Iran and its allied groups in the region. While Israel has destroyed Hamas infrastructure in Gaza, eliminated many of its leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, and targeted Hezbollah’s command network, Khamenei continues to claim victory. These statements starkly contrast with the on-the-ground realities. Regional and international analysts widely agree that Iran's regional policies have failed. Israel's military strategy has successfully pushed Hezbollah away from the border, limiting its access to Israeli territory. Despite these setbacks, Khamenei persists in his analyses, insisting that Hezbollah has not been defeated.
Khamenei’s refusal to accept the realities in the region and his continued reliance on flawed analyses stem more from obstinacy than from genuine miscalculation. Rather than acknowledging his mistakes, he attempts to reshape facts to align with his vision. This stubbornness has wasted Iran’s financial and human resources while deepening animosity among regional nations and governments toward Iran.
Moreover, Khamenei not only dismisses external realities but also attempts to silence domestic critics. In his recent speech, he targeted opponents of the Islamic Republic's regional policies, branding them as mercenaries. This follows earlier threats in which he accused dissenting analysts of treason and demanded punitive measures against them. This repressive approach highlights Khamenei's growing concern over the potential domestic fallout from his regional policy failures and their impact on the Islamic Republic’s stability.
Denying failures and silencing critics will not resolve any issues; rather, they will exacerbate internal dissatisfaction and further isolate the Islamic Republic both regionally and globally. This persistent denial and obstinacy have already inflicted significant costs on the Iranian people. Khamenei's insistence on opposing Syria's new government and risks not only deepening regional instability but also fueling anti-Iran sentiment among the Syrian population and neighboring countries.
Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that while Iran has actively engaged with opposition groups, it does not maintain direct ties with Syria’s ruling faction, responsible for the overthrow of the decades-long Assad dynasty.
“Our involvement has always been about preventing ISIS's advance and the spread of terrorism to regional countries,” Baghaei said during a press briefing in Tehran on Monday.
He added that Iran’s focus included advancing Syria’s political processes and preventing the country from becoming a haven for extremist groups.
“The issue of various terrorist groups operating in Syria has been a major concern since the beginning of developments in Syria 13 years ago,” he said.
Iran has long had a military presence in Syria, as has its armed allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist group by nations such as the UK and US.
Responding to speculation about a message from Syria’s leadership via Turkey, Baghaei said that regional concerns, including Syria, are often addressed during multilateral discussions.
“Our stance is to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while ensuring that the Syrian people determine their fate without foreign interference,” he added.
After the storming of the embassy
Baghaei described a coordinated effort involving Iran’s embassies in Damascus and Beirut to evacuate nationals.
“At present, no non-resident Iranian nationals remain in Syria,” he said, adding that Iranians, including military advisors and diplomatic staff, were successfully evacuated during the recent unrest which saw the Iranian embassy ransacked.
Prospects for nuclear negotiations
Turning to nuclear negotiations, Baghaei said Iran is committed to dialogue. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has never shut the door on negotiations. We have always participated in good faith, despite many concerns being unfounded,” he said.
Referencing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Baghaei said that Iran’s cooperation had yielded agreements in the past but criticized the lack of follow-through by other parties.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany).
The agreement aimed to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program by imposing strict limits on its uranium enrichment activities and granting extensive access to international inspectors in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Despite its initial success in curbing Iran's nuclear advancements, the deal faced challenges, particularly after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration and re-imposed sanctions on Iran.
This withdrawal led to a gradual erosion of the agreement, with Iran scaling back its commitments in response and since, escalating its nuclear program beyond international limits.
Efforts to revive the JCPOA have been ongoing, reflecting its significance in promoting regional stability and preventing nuclear proliferation. However, negotiations remain complex, with both sides expressing concerns over compliance and mutual trust.
Baghaei denied reports of a message being sent from US President-elect Donald Trump.
Iran-Turkey relations and broader goals
Baghaei also highlighted the importance of maintaining strong ties with Turkey, describing it as a significant regional neighbor.
“We are committed to good-neighborly relations with Turkey, which benefit both nations,” he said. While acknowledging occasional differences, Baghaei expressed confidence in ongoing dialogue to resolve disputes.
Recent tensions between Iran and Turkey over Syria have highlighted the complexities of their regional relationship. While both nations have historically cooperated on various issues, their conflicting interests in Syria have created friction as each vies for power.
Iran, a staunch supporter of Syria's government under Bashar al-Assad, has expressed concerns over Turkey's help to the ruling group in Syria which ousted Assad after 13 years.
Turkey, on the other hand, justifies its actions as necessary to combat Kurdish militias, which it considers terrorists.
“The region’s security depends on collective adherence to international obligations and the rejection of foreign interference,” Baghaei added, Syria having played a critical role in Iran's regional foreign policy since the outbreak of Syria's civil war, with multiple bases spread out across Syria and forces in place.