Iran International
Iran’s oil minister denied reports on Wednesday that oil exports have declined, even as the Iranian currency continued its downward spiral and the country faced acute shortages of natural gas and electricity.
Speaking after a weekly cabinet meeting, Mohsen Paknejat dismissed the reports as part of “the enemies’ psychological warfare,” pointing blame to the impact of global sanctions, stating, “We have no problems with selling oil, and measures have been put in place that will continue to prove effective in the future.”
The United States imposed third-party sanctions on Iran’s oil exports in 2018 when it withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. China has been the only major buyer who has allowed Iranian oil to enter its refineries, gradually increasing the volume since 2021.
Earlier this month, reports surfaced suggesting a significant drop in Iran’s oil deliveries to its primary consumer, China, during October and November. A commodities trader added to the speculation last week by tweeting that sales to China halved in December, falling below 800,000 barrels per day, compared to nearly double that amount during the first eight months of 2024.
However, data from tanker tracking firm Kpler shows that there is no clear evidence of such a substantial decline, making conclusions about December's final numbers as yet unclear. Iranian oil offloading in China can fluctuate significantly day-to-day, with below-average deliveries in the first half of the month potentially being offset by above-average shipments in the second half.
Earlier this month, Iran International reported that Tehran’s oil deliveries to China showed a steadily decline in October and November, based on information received from tanker tracking firms.
The decline could have several reasons, among them the closure of the small Chinese refineries due to environmental reasons. Another reason could be the return of Donald Trump who has pledged to resume his “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
China accounts for 95% of Iran's oil exports, but it does not purchase the oil directly. Instead, small independent refineries buy Iranian oil after it is blended with crude from other countries, ensuring it is not labeled as Iranian by Chinese customs, in order not to overtly violate the US sanctions.
Nevertheless, as Iran offers significant discounts to Chinese buyers and absorbs the additional costs of concealing shipments to bypass sanctions, it fails to generate sufficient revenue to sustain its oil-dependent economy.
Since the imposition of US sanctions, Iran’s currency has depreciated 18-fold, while persistent inflation has exceeded 40% over the past five years. The sanctions have also hindered the country’s ability to invest in maintaining natural gas production and upgrading its power grid, resulting in severe energy shortages that have paralyzed the country.
During a roundtable discussion hosted by Sazandegi newspaper, conservative politician and Expediency Council member Mohammad Reza Bahonar, former senior lawmaker and centrist politician Hossein Marashi, and Mahmoud Vaezi, a senior aide to former president Hassan Rouhani, carefully avoided directly naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the ultimate authority responsible for the country’s major shortcomings.
They spoke cautiously, as some of their critical remarks touched on highly sensitive topics, including constitutional changes and political reforms. The veteran political insiders would not have voiced such criticisms publicly two or three years ago, before Iran's regional influence began to wane and its economic situation reached a critical stage.
They highlighted issues including the government's lack of resources, largely due to massive expenditures in the Middle East aimed at undermining Israel—spending that was undertaken without the consent of the Iranian people or parliament (Majles), as they noted.
Marashi said, "Iran's priority should be addressing its economic crisis," and "politics in Iran should not be left to military organizations," likely referring to the central role the Revolutionary Guards play both in political and economic spheres.
He added: “The government’s priorities remain focused on outdated ideological issues, such as enforcing the hijab on women and restricting access to information on the Internet, rather than tackling the country’s pressing economic crises.”
These failures have left the nation struggling in darkness and cold since November, as the oil-rich country continues to fall short in producing sufficient natural gas and electricity in generating sufficient oil export revenues.
A huge part of the country's income from oil is kept outside the government's treasury and under direct supervision of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard.
On December 16 all government offices and schools in 26 of the 31 Iranian provinces were shut down due to blackouts, power shortages and consumption of pollutant fuels in many power plants.
Without elaborating on what was wrong with the Iranian Constitutional Law, Bahonar said that “all the articles of the constitution can be revised except a few that are about the essence of Islam and the nature of the political system as a republic.”
His remarks likely implied that institutions such as the Guardian Council, which hinder free and fair elections, could be dismantled, and that articles granting extraordinary powers to the Supreme Leader could be revised. This would help curb unnecessary spending on religious institutions and costly military ventures abroad.
Elsewhere in their debate, the three politicians said that many of Iran's problems are caused by flaws in the structure of its political system. Without saying how the current system has led to a dictatorship under the Supreme Leader, they called for a democratic political system like those in Japan, Pakistan, Germany, France and the United States.
Marashi criticized Pezeshkian for taking pride in lacking a clear plan for his government or a political party to advance his ideas. He also pointed to the Islamic Republic’s core doctrine, which centers on its ongoing struggle against what it calls “arrogant powers”—a concept now largely synonymous with anti-Americanism.
He argued that “this doctrine cannot drive meaningful progress and must be reformed, much like how China abandoned its rigid ideological approach to achieve development.”
Marashi went on to question the extensive powers of Iran's Judiciary and the absence of judicial independence. He also criticized the current Majles for consistently obstructing the government’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities.
Additionally, he emphasized that Iran’s economy has been held hostage by its nuclear program for the past 19 years. Highlighting the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, he said: “Even maintaining our allies in power depends on prioritizing the economy.”
At the same time, perhaps in an effort to absolve President Masoud Pezeshkian of responsibility for the current crises, three other conservative figures, in reports published by Nameh News website, emphasized that "the Pezeshkian administration has inherited the current economic and political problems from previous governments."