Iran agrees to tougher oversight at nuclear site, IAEA reports

In a commentary for the relatively independent Rouydad24 website, conservative commentator and former lawmaker Jalal Khoshchehreh analyzed Tehran's options after the talks ended in what the outlet described as a deadlock. Contrary to the dominant view among Iranian commentators, diplomats, and politicians—who believe there may be no resolution to this impasse—Khoshchehreh suggested the setback might prompt Iran to adopt a more pragmatic and realistic approach in its relations with Europe.

He noted that Iran is aware a prolonged stalemate with Europe could open the door for Donald Trump’s aggressive policies toward Iran once he takes office as President of the United States in mid-January. According to Khoshchehreh, the latest talks aimed to demonstrate Iran's readiness to manage the crisis. He also emphasized that neither Iran nor Europe favors confrontation, which might encourage Tehran to take more proactive diplomatic steps to avoid a unified front against Iran by the US, Europe, and potentially the international community.

Khoshchehreh further highlighted the importance of balancing domestic political dynamics with foreign relations, asserting that focusing on one without the other is bound to fail. This was apparently a veiled reference to human rights violations and lack of political and social freedoms.

After the Geneva talks, hardliners and members of Iran’s Supreme Council of National Security openly criticized the Foreign Ministry's efforts to negotiate with Europe. Iran’s chief negotiator, Majid Takhtravanchi, walked back his earlier optimistic remarks, stating that what occurred in Geneva amounted to exchange of opinions rather than "negotiations."

This internal discord within Iran's fragmented political landscape has bolstered hardliners who opposed the negotiations from the start. They also attacked Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif for suggesting that Iran remains open to talks with the United States. Tehran now faces a critical decision: whether to cling to its ideological "principles" or adopt a more realistic foreign policy approach, as Khoshchehreh urged, invoking former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s call for courage in pursuing the right path. Tehran must now weigh its lofty ambitions against the realities it faces.

Conservative commentator Hassan Beheshtipour had remarked earlier that European nations might activate the trigger mechanism in the 2015 nuclear deal, which would reinstate pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Beheshtipour argued that Europe would only take this step if Iran fails to alter its behavior. Breaking with the reluctance of many Iranian commentators to criticize former President Ebrahim Raisi, Beheshtipour claimed Europe’s tough stance is a result of Raisi’s evasive policies, which worsened Iran-Europe relations.

Last week, hardline newspapers Kayhan and Javan, along with the ultraconservative Raja News website, sharply criticized the Iranian government’s efforts to restore ties with Europe. Both Kayhan and Javan urged President Masoud Pezeshkian to replace his advisers, while Raja News questioned Zarif’s authority to make what it called “dangerous suggestions” regarding Iran’s stance toward the United States.

Beheshtipour advised Iran to hold off on prioritizing negotiations with Europe, given Trump’s unpredictable policies and existing US-European divisions over Iran. He suggested Tehran wait until late January to reassess Trump’s shifting positions and isolationist tendencies before deciding on further negotiations.

Iran’s decision to employ advanced centrifuges and enrich uranium to higher levels falls within its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the ministry 's spokesperson Esmail Baghaei argued on Tuesday. These measures comply with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight protocols, he added.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran, as a responsible member of the IAEA, has proven its commitment to cooperation with this body," Baghaei said, referring to recent discussions with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in Tehran.

"It is regrettable that these European countries, instead of building on the constructive engagements, continue with unhelpful and confrontational approaches."

The European trio, collectively known as the E3, issued a statement on Tuesday condemning Iran's actions as undermining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal. Their statement highlighted concerns over uranium enrichment at the Fordow facility to near-weapons-grade levels and an increase in the number of centrifuges in operation.

"Iran’s actions have further hollowed out the JCPOA," they wrote, urging Tehran to reverse course and adhere to international safeguards.

Baghaei dismissed these remarks, insisting that the current nuclear standoff stems not from Iran’s actions but from the US's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the failure of European signatories to uphold their commitments under the deal.

Iran has long contended that its nuclear program is peaceful and that its uranium enrichment—reported to have reached 60% purity, just short of the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material—serves civilian purposes. However, this has been met with skepticism from Western nations, who argue there is no credible civilian justification for such enrichment levels.

The ongoing dispute has fueled fears of regional instability. IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi has acknowledged in recent statements that dialogue with Iran is indispensable.

However, he has warned that the lack of implementation of safeguards continues to pose significant challenges.

While the IAEA continues its efforts to mediate between Tehran and the west, diplomatic progress remains elusive.

Initially set to deliver approximately 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, the Suezmax tanker LOTUS (IMO 9203784) is now returning to Iran, as reported by Tanker Trackers.

Iran has been providing Assad's government with free oil, as well as financial and military assistance throughout the country's civil war. According to Iranian politicians, the Assad government owed Iran between $30-50 billion.

This follows anticipated fuel shortages in Syria, likely to worsen with the fall of Iran's allied government and the takeover by insurgent groups, who stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Sunday.

According to data received by Iran International from Kepler, a leading provider of technology-led insights into energy and shipping markets, Iran has been sending between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil to Syria daily.

Anti-Assad rebels view Iran as a supporter of a regime that suppressed protests and targeted opponents with all available military means during the 13-year civil war. Assad's fall and the withdrawal of Iranian forces would disrupt Tehran's ability to use Syria as a strategic transit route for transferring weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah and as a military base.

Syria served as a critical corridor for the Islamic Republic, linking Tehran to the Mediterranean in what was often referred to as Tehran's "Shiite Crescent." With Assad's fall, Iran's regional influence is expected to weaken further, particularly following significant Israeli blows against Hezbollah.

“This will probably embolden the Trump Administration to take a tough stance against Iran, in particular by constraining their oil exports. Inflicting economic pain on the regime would seem more likely to yield results now that the Iranians have seen their investment in Syria prove wasted,” wrote Forbes on Sunday.

Iran’s reliance on imported gasoline has intensified amid a domestic energy crisis marked by rolling blackouts, gas shortages, and an overburdened electricity grid.

With the Islamic Republic facing growing economic strains, Washington may target the importation of refined petroleum products, further isolating Iran from the global energy market.

The Washington Institute's recent report pointed out that Tehran is now "newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports," as the country grapples with energy shortages that have triggered public frustration and political instability.

In particular, the Institute suggested that Washington may reapply sanctions from the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA), which gives the US authority to penalize companies and governments providing essential services—such as insurance, financing, and shipping—for Iran’s gasoline and other petroleum imports.

The report says that imposing sanctions on gasoline imports is more feasible and less diplomatically complicated than targeting Iran's crude oil exports, which are primarily sent to smaller refineries in China.

Gasoline, produced by foreign refineries, is a relatively small market for these countries, making them more susceptible to US penalties.

"Enforcing sanctions on Iran’s gasoline imports is more straightforward and less diplomatically fraught than sanctioning its oil exports, most of which go to small refineries in China. This gasoline is produced at foreign refineries that may be reluctant to incur U.S. penalties just for the sake of a relatively small customer like Iran," wrote Patrick Clawson, the Research Counselor at the Washington Institute.

This potential strategy comes as Iran faces a sharp rise in domestic fuel consumption, including gasoline, with daily demand reaching at least 120 million liters—far surpassing the country's production capacity.

Last year, Iran spent $2 billion on gasoline imports, and its reliance on foreign fuel is expected to rise, with projected imports of 15 million liters per day. The country’s inability to produce enough gasoline domestically has made it increasingly vulnerable to external sanctions targeting its refined oil products.

As the Trump administration prepares to tighten its sanctions regime, European powers may lend their support, fueled by dissatisfaction with Iran's nuclear ambitions and its recent actions, including the acceleration of uranium enrichment and non-compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspections.

The timing is critical for both Iran’s government and its citizens, as energy shortages continue to strain daily life, potentially leading to social unrest reminiscent of the 2019 protests sparked by fuel price hikes.

Following a televised interview by President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday, speculation about the potential increase in gasoline prices has grown in Iran. In the interview, the president referred to energy shortages and stated that gasoline prices would rise, but did not announce the timing of the decision.

At the same time, the government and parliament are facing a challenge regarding who will take responsibility for this price increase.

In addition to gasoline shortages, Iran is also grappling with a growing natural gas deficit, exacerbated by inefficient energy policies.

The shortage of natural gas, used in 90% of Iranian homes for heating, has left the country in a precarious position, especially as it heads into a harsh winter.

As Iran faces mounting internal challenges, the US may find leverage in pushing for a reduction in gasoline exports, further isolating Tehran from the global market and heightening the strain on its economy.

"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Iran, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, has provided military, financial, and political support to maintain the former Syrian president's grip on power since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Iran’s backing included sending weapons, financial assistance, military advisors, and elite forces like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as allied militias.

In addition to urging a halt to conflicts, Iran’s statement, which followed the news of Assad fleeing the country, called for the safety of all Syrian citizens, the preservation of religious sites, and the protection of diplomatic and consular missions in accordance with international law.

"Tehran would continue its consultations with key regional stakeholders to promote security and stability in the country," it added.

"The long-standing and friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Syria are expected to continue with a wise and forward-looking approach, based on shared interests and the fulfillment of international legal commitments," the statement concluded.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall.

He proposed that Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.

Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Council and an IRGC former commander wrote on his X account: "The fate of Syria must be determined by its people. The exploitation of foreign actors will result in nothing but the repetition of the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq models."

Iran, along with Russia, have tightened their grip on Russia in recent years, both having large swathes of military infrastructure across the country.

Images published by Al Arabiya show Syrians storming the Iranian embassy Sunday, breaking windows, and damaging furniture, in a sign that Tehran's influence is no longer welcome.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed to Tehran Times that diplomats and staff had evacuated the embassy before armed forces arrived. Esmail Baghaei said that all personnel were now safe and in good health.

State-affiliated Iranian media have also softened their language in response to Assad’s fall. Before the collapse, opposition forces were regularly referred to as "terrorists" or "takfiris," but now they are being described as "armed opposition groups" or "militias," reflecting a shift in Iran’s public messaging.

Fars News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the reasons behind the fall of Assad's government, saying that “the Syrian president did not pay enough attention to Iran’s advice regarding democracy and popular defense."

"The lack of popular support for the government, due to the dire economic situation, the weakening of the army, and corruption, along with the Syrian government's reliance on promises from foreign powers in exchange for abandoning resistance, are among the key mistakes," the government aligned publication wrote on Sunday.

Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss the situation as Tehran faces losing a key stronghold, the route key between Iran and the Mediterranean.

“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.

Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that there appears to be no comprehensive or systematic analysis of the situation in Syria within Iran’s media.

“Some media outlets consider this a victory for Israel, while others view it as an internal Syrian matter,” he noted.

According to Rahimpour, Iran's internal calculations regarding Syria have been so disrupted by the recent developments that the government is struggling to form a clear stance on its position.

Costs of supporting Assad

The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.

Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.

In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad's government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.

Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.

The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.

IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.

The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).

With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.