In the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, an Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria has reversed its course in the Red Sea apparently headed back toward the Persian Gulf.
Initially set to deliver approximately 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, the Suezmax tanker LOTUS (IMO 9203784) is now returning to Iran, as reported by Tanker Trackers.
Iran has been providing Assad's government with free oil, as well as financial and military assistance throughout the country's civil war. According to Iranian politicians, the Assad government owed Iran between $30-50 billion.
This follows anticipated fuel shortages in Syria, likely to worsen with the fall of Iran's allied government and the takeover by insurgent groups, who stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Sunday.
According to data received by Iran International from Kepler, a leading provider of technology-led insights into energy and shipping markets, Iran has been sending between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil to Syria daily.
Anti-Assad rebels view Iran as a supporter of a regime that suppressed protests and targeted opponents with all available military means during the 13-year civil war. Assad's fall and the withdrawal of Iranian forces would disrupt Tehran's ability to use Syria as a strategic transit route for transferring weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah and as a military base.
Syria served as a critical corridor for the Islamic Republic, linking Tehran to the Mediterranean in what was often referred to as Tehran's "Shiite Crescent." With Assad's fall, Iran's regional influence is expected to weaken further, particularly following significant Israeli blows against Hezbollah.
“This will probably embolden the Trump Administration to take a tough stance against Iran, in particular by constraining their oil exports. Inflicting economic pain on the regime would seem more likely to yield results now that the Iranians have seen their investment in Syria prove wasted,” wrote Forbes on Sunday.
