Military training jet crashes in southern Iran, killing both pilots

The hardline Islamist-led forces are unlikely beneficiaries of fallout from neighboring conflicts in which key Syrian allies Iran and Russia are sapped and distracted while uneasy neighbor Turkey presses its advantage.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, accused of war crimes by many Syrians and rights groups, fended off an armed challenge to his rule following Arab Spring democracy protests in 2011 with help from Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters and Russian air power.

But much has changed. The war in Ukraine has preoccupied Russia, Hezbollah limped to a ceasefire with Israel and Iran finds itself on the backfoot in a multifront confrontation with Israel in which it has lost the initiative.

“Over the last year, Hezbollah's forces inside Syria got weaker,” said Ibrahim Al-Assil, a Syrian analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

Al-Assil said he was detained by the Syrian secret police in 2011 while taking part in a peaceful protest against Assad in Damascus. He said he was interrogated and tortured for four days at a Syrian military Airport.

“Now even Russia is overwhelmed and busy with the war in Ukraine,” said Al-Assil who founded the Syrian Nonviolence Movement but now predicts deadly upheaval. “The battle is not going to be easy. It's going to be bloody. It's going to be brutal."

The Israeli military has launched dozens of strikes on alleged Iran weapons facilities, smuggling routes and warehouses, curbing the ability of Iran and its allies to help.

The Israeli military announced on Tuesday in a new release that their Air Force conducted a strike in Damascus targeting Hezbollah’s representative to the Syrian military, Salman Nemer Jamaa.

Israel said Jamaa was a Hezbollah operative who was a key figure in enabling weapons smuggling to Lebanon from Syria, in a sign the Jewish state would still pound its Lebanese adversary despite the calm next door.

How far can Iran go to support Assad?

Whether Iran in its cash-strapped and weakened state can afford to come to Assad's rescue remains a key question.

“Is Syria the hill the Iranian regime is willing to die on? I don't think so,” said Hazem Alghabra, who grew up mostly in Syria was a former advisor to the US State Department on Near Eastern Affairs.

The Iranian establishment may understand its weakened position, and Hezbollah forces could be demoralized and underequipped after a punishing 14-month wrestle with the Mideast's top military power.

“The Iranian regime is not going to make big decisions while they're being chased literally by Israel and the United States. The Iranian regime moves when there's an opportunity, a weakness," Alghabra said. "They operate a bit like a virus, whenever they see a weakened immune system, they move in it."

Who are the rebel forces?

Two of the main rebel forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), are both backed by Ankara.

HTS, known as the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, is a former Al Qaeda affiliate that pledges to build a state based on Islamic principles.

They are made up Islamist insurgents with Jihadi ideology and former Free Syrian Army factions. They managed to take control of key places in Syria such defense factories in Aleppo, a thermal power station and an air base, according to monitors and eyewitnesses.

All met with little resistance, Greg Brew, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group told Iran International.

“Assad's forces have essentially melted away,” said Brew. “Turkey is largely in the driver's seat when it comes to extracting real concessions and real advantage from the situation."

Ankara, while supporting anti-government rebels, may not want Assad to fall, however.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be using the Islamist insurgents to push a reluctant Assad to acquiesce to a Turkish sphere of influence in Northern Syria, allowing the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey to return.

Weakened Syrian control over the area may aid Turkey's goal of undermining Kurdish foes further to the East who could also soon find the US military umbrella under which they have operated for years yanked away by an isolationist President Trump.

“Turkey is in a position to extract the greatest gains, the greatest advantage from this sequence of events, even if it hasn't been dictating the events, it does look likely to benefit,” said Brew.

On Tuesday, US airstrikes hit the Eastern Syria in the city of Deir Ezzor. The day before, US backed anti-Assad forces took several villages there from Iran and Iran-backed Assad forces.

While regional power politics may mean Israel and Turkey do not seek Assad's outright ouster, Syrian people trapped in the conflict are at the mercy of the country's clashing internal foes.

Syrian's suffered under the human rights abuses of their president but are likely wary of the Islamist insurgents who have pushed out his forces in recent days.

"People now are focusing on survival," said Al-Assil.

Javad Ghaffari, a senior figure in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was reported to have arrived in Damascus on Sunday, Iran's state-run Al-Alam news website reported, hours after Iran’s foreign minister said Iranian forces could be deployed to Syria if requested by Assad.

Ghaffari was sanctioned by the United States in September 2024 for his role in “targeting critics of the Iranian regime abroad” as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s Special Operations Division.

Previously, Ghaffari spent a several years in Syria leading forces, including Hezbollah fighters and the Afghan Fatemiyoun militia in campaigns to reclaim key central and Eastern cities Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Bukamal from opposition groups.

He was dubbed Butcher of Aleppo by his foes following the bloody battle over Syria’s second largest city, where thousands were killed and injured.

Despite his military successes, Ghaffari had to leave Syria in 2021, according to Times of Israel, after his actions — including attacking American forces and deploying Iranian weapons to unauthorized locations — were deemed by Damascus to have contravened Syrian sovereignty. The report was not independently confirmed.

His re-emergence underscores Iran’s enduring influence in Syria and Assad’s precarious situation following the recent advances of his adversaries.

Armed groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a significant offensive last week, violating a four-year-old truce and seizing substantial portions of Aleppo and its suburbs, as well as areas around the northwestern city of Idlib.

The Syrian army has responded by retreating from key positions in Aleppo to regroup in northern Hama. Reinforcements and equipment are arriving in the area, with preparations for a large-scale counteroffensive underway to reclaim lost territories.

Ghaffari’s presence signals both a renewed Iranian commitment to Assad’s survival and the high stakes of the ongoing conflict.

“The Islamic Republic neither commands resistance groups in Arab countries nor maintains organizational ties with them but supports their cause and, if needed, provides assistance.” Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Al-Araby Al-Jadeed website on Tuesday.

The remarks come as Syria's stalemated civil war was suddenly jolted last week as rebels led by hardline Islamists launched an offensive which captured Aleppo, the second biggest city, in a setback to a key regional ally of the Islamic Republic.

Araghchi revealed his intention to visit Russia for discussions on Syria, emphasizing the need to calm the conflict and present initiatives for a long-term resolution.

“We have made extensive preparations to calm the situation in Syria and create opportunities for presenting initiatives and establishing a permanent solution,” he added.

Araghchi also addressed Syria’s demands for a Turkish withdrawal as a prerequisite for renewed ties between Damascus and Ankara, calling it a logical condition.

He further criticized Turkey’s support for armed groups opposing Assad, warning that the expansion of activities by terrorist groups—a term Araghchi attributed to certain opposition factions—poses a greater threat to regional neighbors than to Iran.

“We are always seeking consultation and dialogue with Turkey regarding our differences,” he said.

Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Tuesday that the foreign minister conveyed the country's policy opposing what he described as terrorism during recent visits to Syria and Turkey.

“Terrorism is a contagious disease that does not stop in one place. If countries do not cooperate in combating this problem, all nations will undoubtedly be affected,” he said at an economic conference in Mashhad.

Fighting intensifies in Syria

Meanwhile, northeast Syria has seen renewed combat as US-backed Kurdish forces clashed with Assad’s troops.

Airstrikes targeted Iranian-backed militias in the Deir al-Zor region, with Syrian and security sources attributing the attacks to the US-led coalition.

The coalition has not commented, and there was no independent confirmation of the strikes.

The conflict poses a significant challenge for Assad, whose forces are grappling with rebel advances near Aleppo and Hama.

Syrian state media reported intensified Russian and Syrian airstrikes in response, while rescue workers reported civilian casualties from hospital bombings in Aleppo and Idlib.

These developments complicate an already volatile regional landscape, with conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon still rumbling despite a fresh ceasefire aimed at ending the war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Analysts warn that escalation in Syria could spill over into neighboring countries, deepening instability across the Middle East.

As Iran positions itself as a key player in Syria’s future, Araghchi’s remarks highlight Tehran’s dual strategy: supporting Assad militarily while pursuing diplomatic engagement with Turkey and Russia.

Ready to support Assad's forces battling Islamist insurgents, they were heading to northern Syria according to Reuters, who spoke to two Syrian army sources.

Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding in London, told Iran International: “The whole situation is extremely fluid but Iran will be sure to shore up its position as it’s very conscious of losing ground across the region after Hezbollah has been politically and military degraded.”

In recent months, Israel has taken out swathes of the group's leadership in targeted strikes as well as at least 1,500 operatives in two days of synchronized explosions of the group's pagers and walkie-talkies.

Reuters reported that dozens of Iran-aligned Iraqi Hashd al Shaabi fighters from Iraq also crossed into Syria through a military route near Al Bukamal crossing.

"These are fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the front lines in the north," a senior Syrian army source told Reuters, adding the militias included Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah and Afghan Fatemiyoun groups sent by Iran.

Doyle noted that this aligns with Iran's typical approach, leveraging its regional allies to bolster its influence and support.

“They prefer to do that than use uniformed Iranian military,” he added. “It will be a contest now between regional actors such as Iran and Turkey, Russia and the US and Israel. What will get lost in this is the agenda of the Syrian people.”

During the Syrian war, along with Russia, Iran sent thousands of Shi'ite militias to support Assad. However, the attack by multiple Islamist groups in recent days has shown the void left, resulting in the Syrian army retreating from Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militias led by Hezbollah, had a strong presence.

“The Syrian regime has been in close contact with the Iranians and it will want to recapture Aleppo. It’s negotiating by fighting, trying to change the front lines which were frozen for five or so years, to suit your allies and regional interests.

"Turkey has an interest in trying to push back against the Syrian regime and the Kurdish groups, and Iran will want to shore up Syria because it won’t want to lose out to external powers. Iran’s interest is maintaining the corridor from Iran to Lebanon and not having that interrupted by losing control and influence in Syria," Doyle said.

Amid the war in Gaza and ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, recent months have seen Israel step up its strikes on Iranian bases in Syria.

On Sunday, Israel forced an Iranian Mahan Air plane suspected of containing weapons for Hezbollah and destined to land in Syria to U-turn after an Air Force operation saw fighter planes circle the plane, according to Israel’s YNet.

It comes amid the US-France-brokered 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iran’s largest regional ally. Israel has vowed that any efforts to rebuild and re-arm would be met with force.

The Iranian plane forced to turn around was in Syrian territory, believed to be delivering weapons for Hezbollah, which uses Syria as one of its major smuggling routes.

In the ceasefire agreement, it was stated that "the US is committed to cooperating with Israel to curb Iran's destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons, affiliates and others from Iranian territory”.

In spite of the ceasefire, both sides continue to claim violations, with the Israeli military having carried out multiple air strikes on terror targets since last week.

"The Islamic Republic will insist on its principled stance to fully support the Syrian government, nation and army in the fight against terrorism and safeguard regional security and stability," Abbas Araghchi said in his meeting with Assad.

Assad, in turn, thanked the Iranian foreign minister for his "meaningful" visit to Syria under the current circumstances, according to Iran's readout of their talks.

Following the meeting, Araghchi told reporters that the two sides discussed "the details of the support Syria must receive."

"I conveyed Iran's message of support for Syria and for Bashar al-Assad himself... It is natural for the situation to be difficult, but the courage and spirit of the Syrian president were admirable," he said, adding that they had reached "good understandings."

Iran has played a major role in the Syrian civil war, aligning itself with Assad's government against various opposition groups since the conflict began in 2011.

Tehran provided substantial military support, including advisors, ground troops, and militia fighters from across the region, helping Assad win back much of the territory his forces had lost by 2020.

Between the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire and late 2024, frontline fighting mostly subsided. However, the recent capture of Aleppo by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied groups may convince Tehran to reinforce the Assad government again.

"Whether Iran will send forces to Syria again, similar to what it did in the past, depends on future circumstances and the decisions of the country's senior officials," Esmaeil Kowsari, an IRGC general-turned-lawmaker who sits on the Parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, said on Sunday. "However, the Resistance Front will definitely become active in Syria."

The Resistance Front refers to the alliance of armed militant groups sponsored by Iran, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi Shiite militias. For now, Hezbollah and Iraqi militia seem to be the only forces who are positioned to join the Syrian government's fight against rebels.

Iran rallying regional support for Assad

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday had a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani, during which he expressed Tehran's preparedness for cooperation with regional states in the fight against armed rebels in Syria.

"These kinds of events are part of the sinister plans of the Zionist regime (Israel) to promote insecurity, discord, and conflict within Islamic countries. This issue has made the alignment and joint efforts of the Islamic Ummah to prevent the spread of terrorist trends in the region an essential task," Pezeshkian said in the phone call.

Earlier in the day, he had urged Islamic countries to intervene in Syria to prevent further internal conflict, saying that they should not allow this conflict within an Islamic country to persist.

Next stop: Ankara

After meeting Assad and dining out in a restaurant in Damascus in an apparent message of calm in Syria, Araghchi left Damascus for Ankara to discuss the Syria developments with Turkish officials.

Turkey is known as a key supporter of Syrian rebels who have captured Aleppo over the past few days, and had given a green light to the offensive, Reuters reported citing opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence.