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News websites in Tehran continued heralding talks, as the EU foreign policy officials remained silent, with repeated requests for confirmation by Iran International on Monday remaining unanswered. On Sunday, Iran’s foreign ministry announced that the two sides will meet in Geneva to continue diplomatic efforts for resolving differences.

According to spokesman Esmail Baghaei, the upcoming talks with Germany, France, Britain (E3) and EU officials are seen as a follow-up to meetings held with them on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

“In this round of talks, which were planned in New York, a range of regional and international issues, including Palestine and Lebanon, as well as nuclear issues, will be discussed.”

Tehran finds itself in a difficult situation as the United States and the E3 sponsored a censure resolution last week at the Board of Governors meeting of the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The resolution condemned Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, signaling perhaps more punitive measures in the future.

As pressure on the nuclear dispute ramps up, Tehran also faces the specter of Donald Trump’s return to office and an expected intensification of economic sanctions.

The conservative Farhikhtegan website in Tehran reported on Monday that Iran initiated the request for a meeting with European counterparts, highlighting its eagerness for diplomatic progress ahead of Trump’s return.

At the same time, contradictory signals persisted from Tehran. Hardline politicians continued to demand a move toward production of nuclear weapons in the face of the IAEA censure.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on Sunday that Iran has begun deploying advanced centrifuges which enrich uranium for the country’s nuclear program. He said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's reciprocal response to this political misuse of the Board of Governors was immediately put into action, and the deployment of a set of new and advanced centrifuges has begun".

However, it remains unclear what Iran aims to achieve with the European powers, given that the primary actor is the United States, which will usher in a fundamentally different administration in just two months. Even the Biden administration, which tried to reach an accommodation in 2021 and 2022, has become skeptical of Tehran’s true intentions.

Media in Tehran quoted an Iran-based analyst on Monday as saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to engage in direct contact or negotiations with the new US administration if it concludes that doing so benefits the country's national interests.”

The optimistic tone from Iranian media and politicians about the prospects of diplomatic progress may also be an effort to counter the widespread pessimism gripping the country. Since September, the Iranian rial has significantly depreciated, driven by Israeli attacks on Tehran’s proxies, a direct airstrike on Iran, and mounting Western pressure over the nuclear issue. This currency devaluation has exacerbated inflation, which already stands at around 40%, further straining the economy.

However, not all commentators and analysts in Iran echo the official optimism. Some point out that Europe, much like the US has given up on a viable agreement with Iran, partly because of Tehran’s military support for Russia.

Hassan Beheshtipour, a well-known analyst told Rouydad 24 website in Tehran that he believes the European are more inclined to pursue punitive measures, such as resurrecting UN sanctions that were suspended by the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.

"The Europeans prefer to move toward activating the snapback mechanism unless Iran, along with the UK, France, and Germany, changes its approach. If Iran adjusts its stance, a potential agreement might be reached to avoid triggering the snapback mechanism. However, for now, they are strongly pursuing its activation," he argued.

"We are close to an agreement, it could happen within days, some corners remain to be closed,” Mike Herzog, Israel's ambassador to the US, told Army Radio on Monday.

The United States believes the two sides have reached a ceasefire agreement, Axios reported on Monday citing a senior U.S. official.

On Sunday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held closed talks on the matter which would have to be approved by the security cabinet.

The US Undersecretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, Dan Shapiro, will arrive in Israel on Monday and meet with Defense Minister Israel Katz and other Israeli officials.

A key agenda item will be addressing Israeli concerns its so-called freedom of action and ensuring immediate cooperation on the matter, with Israel insisting on keeping the option for self-defense firmly open.

A senior Israeli negotiator, working closely on the Gaza file, told Iran International: “Each side wants a ceasefire in Lebanon.”

He said that there is no desire to wait until the Trump administration begins in January, as the country is being battered by war, impacting economically and psychologically, while 101 Israeli hostages remain held by Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and the war rolls on there.

“Bibi fears that the Biden administration may impose sanctions, enforce an arms embargo or even seek retribution against him,” the source said.

“At the same time, he rightly believes that this is a moment when Hezbollah and Iran are at their weakest, Israel not gaining any more by inflicting havoc on Lebanon.”

In September, coordinated attacks over two days saw thousands of Hezbollah operatives taken out of action when pagers and walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously.

Soon after, swathes of the group’s leadership, including long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, were killed in a wave of targeted strikes, which continue today.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close political ally of Hezbollah, last week said there was progress in the talks, but there were still “technical details” to resolve.

The US-drafted proposal entails an initial 60-day suspension of hostilities during which Hezbollah fighters would move north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) away from the Israeli border.

However, it would require the Lebanese army to enforce the deal, deploying thousands of troops, which has historically been impossible to impose as Hezbollah continues to defy the army which is essentially weaker than Iran’s largest ally in the region.

Former General Khaled Hmadeh told Iran International that on the ground, the prospects of a ceasefire look more bleak.

"The efforts initiated by Amos Hochstein's recent visits to Beirut and Tel Aviv have yielded little productive outcome, highlighted by the immediate resumption of Israeli reconnaissance flights over Beirut following his departure. The situation further deteriorated with a surge in military operations characterized by escalating violence and destruction after his visit to Tel Aviv," he told Iran International.

He said problems between the US and Iran remain key barriers. "Clear terms that could address the critical issues between Israel and Lebanon remain elusive. Instead, the situation seems to be heading toward further escalation. A significant factor in this deepening rift is Iran's resistance to the changes the United States is implementing in the region, particularly concerning Iranian influence and the status of Iranian-backed armed militias," he added.

Tehran, in turn, he said appears to be "exploiting and capitalizing on its dominance over Hezbollah, and through it, Lebanese political decision-making in the face of US pressure over its regional role and nuclear ambitions".

He said that while Lebanon bears the brunt of the conflict, suffering damage to its political stability, security, and national economy, the effectiveness of the Lebanese government is also under scrutiny, "particularly concerning Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's navigation of Tehran's influence".

International pressure on Tehran will be key in what not only comes next, but the key to any kind of lasting peace.

"The responsibility to pressure Tehran into dismantling Hezbollah's military capabilities should be recognized as an international and American obligation that transcends purely Lebanese concerns," he added. "Without consistent external support aimed at solidifying the Lebanese Army's role and addressing Hezbollah's military presence, the prospects for stability in the region will remain precarious at best."

A soldier in the elite Golani unit not authorized to speak to media, told Iran International: "I hope we finish them. Lebanon agrees, they also hate Hezbollah."

In spite of being seriously wounded in Lebanon, he longs to go back to the front lines, and "finish the job". "We can't allow them to get strong enough to raise their heads again," he said.

Lior Akerman, a senior fellow and Head of National Resilience Desk in the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University, said that in the current reality, an agreement with Hezbollah has a wider importance.

It could allow the "return of sanity to the State of Israel", including the cessation of fighting in Gaza, the return of the 63,000 displaced Israeli residents to their homes in the north, the return of the kidnapped in Gaza, and the rebuilding of the state.

The former deputy head of division and a former chief of staff in the Shin Bet told Iran International: "In the distant future, there is no doubt that an all-out war will be required to destroy Hezbollah, but in the meantime, we can be content with keeping them away from the border and giving the Israeli army the opportunity to thwart any security activity against us in the territories of southern Lebanon."

Israel's right-wing national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, urged Netanyahu to reject a ceasefire. On X, he said: "An agreement with Lebanon is a big mistake. A historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah. I understand all the constraints and reasons, and it is still a grave mistake."

He urged the military to continue to weaken the group, considered terrorists by countries including the US and UK.

"You have to listen to the commanders fighting in the field, listen to the heads of the authorities. Precisely now, when Hezbollah is beaten and longs for a cease-fire, it is forbidden to stop. As I warned before in Gaza, I warn now as well: Mr. Prime Minister - it is not too late to stop this agreement! We must continue until the absolute victory!"

Iran has backed a ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying last month in Beirut: "We support efforts for a ceasefire on the condition that it would be acceptable to the Lebanese people, acceptable to the resistance, and thirdly, it would be synchronized with a ceasefire in Gaza."

The country’s Interior Ministry statement identified the three men as Olimpi Tohirovic, 28, Mahmoud John Abdul Rahim 28, and Azizi Kamilovic, 33.

The state-run WAM news agency carried images of the three men, their faces blurred, and did not mention charges filed against them.

Israel was quick to vow revenge for the killing of the 28-year-old who has been at the heart of building the UAE’s nascent Jewish community, which has thrived since the 2020 Abraham Accords brought peace between Israel and Arab nations including the UAE.

On Sunday, following the discovery of Kogan’s body, after he had been missing since Thursday, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “The murder of Zvi Kogan is a criminal anti-Semitic terrorist incident. The State of Israel will act in all of its abilities to bring to justice the criminals responsible for his death."

Israeli security officials were quick to point the blame at Iran, which has carried out missions in the UAE before. In 2020, a German-Iranian was abducted from Dubai and in 2013, a British-Iranian is believed to have been murdered by Iranian agents in Dubai.

Kogan ran the kosher supermarket in Dubai, where hundreds of Jews and Israelis live, and hundreds of thousands more have flocked for tourism since 2020.

Speaking to The Telegraph, Oded Ailam, former head of counter-intelligence at Israel’s Mossad, said: "The case raises a wave of questions and speculation about what happened, with Iran immediately suspected of being behind the incident.

“The pattern of action attributed to the Iranians is well known: recruiting local or foreign criminals to carry out acts of sabotage, kidnapping or assassination. This pattern has been observed in failed operations in Mumbai, Thailand, Turkey and even Israel, but Iranian determination, along with the principle of the "law of large numbers", meaning that eventually one day the attempts will succeed, continues to pose a real threat.”

Reuters reported that since 2020, court documents and public statements by government officials have shown at least 33 assassination or abduction attempts in the West in which local or Israeli authorities allege an Iran link.

There has been no formal mention of Iran from either Israel or the UAE in relation to the case, but earlier this year, the IRGC had plotted to attack key Jewish centers in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, using a Tajik national.

If the incident is proven to be Iran-backed, it will indeed risk ties between the two countries which are already at odds amid a battle over sovereignty over three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf.

Between 2016 and 2022, the two countries had no diplomatic ties, the UAE aligning with Saudi which cut links after the storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in 2016 following Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric.

Only last year did Saudi resume ties with its regional rival.

Mr Ailam told The Telegraph: “It is not surprising that at this stage the authorities in the UAE are refraining from public statements attacking Iran, and are devoting their efforts to clandestine activity.”

Kogan will be buried in Jerusalem, where he was born, on Tuesday.

“Issuing an arrest warrant is not enough; a death sentence for Netanyahu should be issued,” Khamenei said in a speech to members of the Basij militia.

The ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, issued arrest warrants on November 21 for Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military leader who is presumed dead.

These warrants allege war crimes and crimes against humanity stemming from the Gaza conflict triggered by Hamas’s attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. However, Khamenei demanded harsher penalties for Israeli officials, accusing them of criminality in their military operations against Gaza and Lebanon.

The Gaza conflict led to direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran this year, and can still turn into a more serious war in the region. Iran also faces more potential sanctions and pressure by the incoming Trump administration.

Khamenei’s demand comes as international legal bodies, including the ICC, stand firmly opposed to capital punishment. Human rights organizations have repeatedly criticized Iran for its extensive use of the death penalty, labeling it a violation of international norms.

This contradiction underscores the disparity between Khamenei’s calls for justice abroad and the practices of his system at home, where capital punishment is frequently employed against political dissidents and protesters.

Khamenei justified his remarks by referencing Israel’s military response to Hamas’s October 7 attacks, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis, including 46 Americans, and led to the abduction of nearly 250 hostages.

Hamas, classified as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States, receives significant support from Tehran.

Khamenei’s criticism of Israel comes as the Islamic Republic has cracked down on domestic dissent. Groups like Iran Human Rights have documented systematic killings and repression since protests erupted in 2022. Hundreds of protesters have been killed, and thousands more injured or imprisoned, with these actions widely condemned by international human rights organizations.

Khamenei also hailed the growth of the so-called Resistance Front, a term used by Iranian officials to describe Tehran-backed armed groups in the region, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias.

“Today, the Resistance Front has grown significantly; tomorrow, this growth will multiply,” Khamenei said, emphasizing his commitment to supporting anti-Israel factions despite international criticism.

The sentences for Mehran Hasanzadeh and Hamid Abdollahzadeh add to growing concerns over the escalating use of capital punishment against political dissidents in the country.

Hasanzadeh, a resident of Oshnavieh, was convicted on charges of rebellion (Baghi), a capital offense under Iran's Islamic law.

According to HRANA human rights organization, the charge stemmed from an accusation of killing a member of the Basij paramilitary force.

“Mehran has been accused of killing a Basij member, which ultimately led to the charge of rebellion and the issuance of the death sentence against him,” a source familiar with the case told HRANA.

Hasanzadeh was previously detained during the 2022 protests, released on bail, and later rearrested before being transferred to Urmia Prison​.

In a separate case, Abdollahzadeh, a resident of Urmia, received a death sentence on suspicion of "membership in an opposition party."

Arrested by security forces in late 2023, he was taken to Urmia Prison following interrogation.

The sentencing of Hasanzadeh and Abdollahzadeh reflects a broader trend of intensifying repression since nationwide protests erupted in September 2022. Sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in custody of the morality police, the demonstrations have been met with severe crackdowns, including mass arrests and the targeting of civil and political activists.

In recent months, Iranian authorities have increasingly resorted to the death penalty. Human rights groups report that over 42 political prisoners are currently at risk of execution.

In its November 21 report, HRANA documented at least 133 executions in since the past month, averaging more than four per day. This surge follows another statistic from the Iran Human Rights Organization, which recorded at least 166 executions in October​​.

HRANA’s reports indicate an average of 811 executions occurred between October 2023 and October 2024, encompassing both political detainees and ordinary prisoners.

The heightened execution rate coincides with rising tensions between Iran and Israel, and some suggest that the government uses the cover of geopolitical crises to deflect attention from internal repression.