Tehran faces deal or downfall under Trump, Lévy says

Sanjari had posted on social media that he would take his own life if four prisoners—Fatemeh Sepehri, Nasreen Shakrami, Toomaj Salehi, and Arsham Rezaei—were not freed by 7pm local time on Wednesday.

Hours later, his death was confirmed by Iranian activists.

US special envoy to Iran Abram Paley described Sanjari’s death as a “tragic example of the regime’s repression,” citing his mistreatment at the hand of authorities.

“The regime repeatedly arrested and tortured Kianoosh for his work as a journalist,” Paley said in a post on X, adding, “We echo his call for the release of all political prisoners in Iran.”

Sanjari was imprisoned multiple times by Iranian authorities between 1999 and 2007, enduring solitary confinement and psychological abuse, including so-called white torture, or prolonged sensory deprivation.

After fleeing to Norway in 2007 with Amnesty International's help, he worked with human rights organizations and later became a journalist for Voice of America in Washington.

In 2016, Sanjari returned to Iran, where he was arrested again and sentenced to 11 years in prison. During this time, he suffered forced psychiatric hospitalization, electric shock treatments, and physical restraints, recounting how he was once injected with a substance that “locked [his] jaw” and left him chained to his bed.

Sanjari's death has drawn rebukes from international human rights organizations, each emphasizing the broader repression faced by journalists and activists in Iran.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) underscored the severe toll that years of state harassment took on Sanjari’s health. Jonathan Dagher, head of RSF’s Middle East desk, called Sanjari’s death “a tragedy that could have been avoided” and remembered him as “a dedicated journalist and a courageous human rights defender.”

In a statement on Friday, RSF demanded an “independent investigation into his death” and held Iranian authorities responsible for the pressures imposed on journalists, adding that this repression ultimately contributed to Sanjari’s death. RSF said that Iran is among the world’s most hostile countries for journalists, with 25 currently imprisoned and others facing constant threats of detention or violence.

Index on Censorship also expressed sorrow, describing Sanjari’s death as a profound loss and highlighting his commitment to human rights. “We are deeply saddened to learn that Iranian activist Kianoosh Sanjari has taken his own life in protest against the Iran regime and its unjust persecution of political prisoners,” the organization said in a post on X Friday, offering condolences to his family and friends.

Sanjari’s case has once again highlighted the risks faced by journalists and activists in Iran, where authorities continue to crack down on dissent.

Earlier on Friday, Iran’s security forces blocked access to Section 250 of Tehran’s Behesht-e Zahra Cemetery, preventing mourners from attending Sanjari’s burial, according to information obtained by Iran International.

Those attempting alternative routes were also turned away by security forces. At least two individuals, including activist Hossein Ronaghi and PhD student Milad Kakavand, were briefly detained as they tried to attend the burial.

The Fordow site, located about 100 km south of Tehran, has been a focal point of tension due to its uranium enrichment activities. In February last year, inspectors discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7% at the underground facility.

Iran said it started enriching uranium to 60% at Fordow two years ago, building on similar enrichment at the other site visited by Grossi, Natanz. This level, close to weapons-grade 90%, represented a significant escalation in its nuclear program.

Grossi’s trip to Tehran included meetings with key officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

President Pezeshkian signaled Iran’s willingness to cooperate with the IAEA to clarify ambiguities regarding its nuclear activities and again asserted the peaceful intentions of the program.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, warned that any resolution by the IAEA’s Board of Governors criticizing Iran’s nuclear program would prompt immediate retaliatory actions.

“We will not allow pressure to dictate the course of our peaceful nuclear activities,” Eslami said during a joint press conference with Grossi.

The IAEA’s Board of Governors is set to meet next week, and European powers are advocating for a resolution to increase scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program and press Tehran to return to negotiations.

Simultaneously, the geopolitical landscape remains tense. Israeli strikes last month destroyed a nuclear weapons research facility in the Parchin military complex near Tehran, according to a report by Axios.

European powers, seeking to curb Iran’s nuclear advancements, are pushing for a comprehensive IAEA report detailing problem areas, including the discovery of unexplained uranium traces at undeclared sites.

Iranian state media, IRNA, emphasized the positive atmosphere during Grossi's visit, saying: "In Tehran, Grossi was met with goodwill from Iranian officials, who conveyed a message of readiness to negotiate and revive the path of constructive engagement."

This shift in tone is particularly striking given that just a year ago, Iran barred nearly one-third of the IAEA's monitoring team, a move Grossi described at the time as a severe impediment to oversight.

Tehran labeled the excluded inspectors as "extremists," further heightening tensions between Iran and the international community over its nuclear activities.

But, while Iran signals a willingness to cooperate, Washington remains wary.

“What we want to see from Iran is actual behavior change and action, not just signs of something or indications of something,” said Vedant Patel, Principal Deputy Spokesperson, adding that all options are on the table to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s diplomatic moves, including Grossi’s visit, appear aimed at de-escalating tensions ahead of the return of US President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to adopt a hardline stance on Iran’s nuclear program.

The IAEA meeting next week may prove critical to gauge the direction of Iran’s nuclear program and any way forward for renewed negotiations.

Explosions which Syrian state news agency SANA said were Israeli airstrikes hit the Mazzeh area for the second day in a row and appeared to target personnel from Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guards, as well as leaders from Palestinian groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

While the specific targets of Friday’s strikes remain unclear, they follow a pattern of escalating action against Iran and its allies.

On Thursday, similar strikes in Mazzeh and nearby Qudsaya claimed fifteen lives, targeting military sites and Islamic Jihad’s headquarters.

The airstrikes occurred shortly before Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was scheduled to meet with Palestinian representatives at the Iranian Embassy in Mazzeh.

The escalation in Syria reflects a broader regional dynamic. On Tuesday, the United States conducted successive airstrikes on Iranian-backed militia facilities in eastern Syria in retaliation for attacks on US personnel.

These strikes, combined with the Pentagon’s deployment of additional air and naval assets to the region, indicate increasing US involvement in countering Iranian allies.

Simultaneously, Israeli forces expanded their operations beyond Damascus, targeting strategic infrastructure along the Syrian-Lebanese border. A bridge near Qusayr in Homs was destroyed to disrupt weapons transfers to Hezbollah, further intensifying pressure on Iranian-aligned groups.

While Israel has long carried out airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria, the frequency and intensity of these operations have grown significantly since the October 7 attack by the Palestinian group Hamas last year, which triggered the Gaza war.

Ali Larijani is a personal envoy of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his meetings with senior Lebanese officials come as the United States has stepped up efforts toward a ceasefire.

Larijani told reporters his presence was not aimed at obstructing that initiative.

"We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems," he said. "We support in all circumstances the Lebanese government."

Larijani met with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Hezbollah-aligned Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss a ceasefire, according to a tweet from the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon.

Larijani also carried a personal message from the Supreme Leader to Berri, according to Iranian state media, the contents of which were not disclosed.

Mikati, speaking on the same day, stressed Lebanon’s commitment to fully implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 without amendments. The resolution, adopted to end the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, calls for southern Lebanon to remain free of weapons outside state control.

Currently, a US-brokered proposal is under discussion that would require Hezbollah to relocate its forces and weapons north of the Litani River, about 18 miles from the Israeli border, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Lebanese military and United Nations peacekeepers would be tasked with preventing the group’s return. Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer briefed Donald Trump on the plan at Mar-a-Lago, with Trump endorsing the proposal and expressing hope for its implementation before his inauguration on January 20.

Meanwhile, Iran appears to be extending an olive branch—or at least a strategic handshake—on multiple fronts. Last month, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament indicated Tehran’s willingness to negotiate with France to implement UN resolutions concerning southern Lebanon.

On Thursday, Iranian President Mohammad Pezeshkian expressed Iran’s willingness to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to address questions about its nuclear program.

A senior Iranian official said that Tehran would send a message to three European powers through visiting IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi emphasizing Iran’s seriousness about resolving its nuclear standoff with the West, Reuters reported Thursday.

The New York Times reported on Thursday that Musk had a secret meeting with Amir Saeid Iravani in New York. Two Iranian officials speaking with the newspaper described the meeting as “positive” and “good news.”

Neither Elon Musk nor President-elect Donald Trump’s team has denied the report, suggesting it may represent an initial step by the incoming administration to establish contacts and engage with the Islamic Republic. This development comes despite widespread expectations that Trump will adopt a hardline approach toward Tehran, for example allowing Israel to launch more direct strikes.

Faced with the dual threats of aggressive Israeli actions and the election of Donald Trump, Tehran has been signaling its willingness to show flexibility, as reflected in statements by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi throughout the week. However, the IRGC has maintained its hardline rhetoric.

After the news about Musk’s meeting in New York, the conservative website Nameh News in Tehran expressed optimism that Trump has changed and is willing to compromise.

“An early and direct meeting between a senior Iranian official and Elon Musk hints at the possibility of negotiations and a potential agreement on the horizon. It appears that Trump has genuinely decided to adopt a different approach toward Iran, perhaps, as Abbas Araghchi put it, moving from 'maximum pressure' to 'maximum rationality,'” the website argued in an article on Friday.

Some Iran watchers on social media warned that Tehran is playing its old and tested method of enticing the United States with the prospect of negotiations and an agreement, trying to buy time to outlast the Trump administration.

Iran nuclear program analyst Andrea Stricker, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—a think tank critical of the Islamic Republic—tweeted a message directed at Musk, stating, “Don’t lay the groundwork for a bad deal with Iran. Tehran’s goal is simply to outlast Trump while preserving its nuclear capabilities.”

Others expressed doubt about the accuracy of the NYT report, questioning if Musk would meet with an Iranian official. An Iranian-American activist tweeted that "The more I learn about the 'meeting' between Elon Musk and Amir Saeid Iravani the more questions I have. The story that broke has IRI propaganda written all over it."

Another Tehran website quoted an analyst who said that goodwill by individuals such as Musk are not enough to bring about a serious change. Trump needs to form dedicated teams to draft negotiating positions regarding outstanding issue.

Although during his campaign Trump emphasized that he would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, this is not the only major issue in potential discussions between the two countries. Iran's regional policies and its support for anti-Israel militant groups represent another Gordian knot that an Israel-friendly administration needs to address.

For now, Iran’s diplomats and civilian officials have stopped threatening a retaliatory missile attack on Israel for the October 26 air strikes that targeted Iranian military sites. But the IRGC and its supporters still renew the threat.

On Thursday, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei warned that Iran is preparing the retaliation. Earlier in the day, Army Commander-in-Chief Abdolrahim Mousavi said, Iran would “choose the timing and nature of our response to the Zionist regime, and when the moment arrives, we will act without hesitation," adding that "Our response will be decisive and uncompromising.”

Other senior IRGC officials intensified their warnings. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Chief Hossein Salami said Iran was determined to respond.

“Our eyes are fixed upon you, and we will fight to the very end. Retribution will come; we will respond with painful blows—just wait and see,” Salami warned.