Trump may hit Iranian oil exports already dented by Israel risk

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country is bracing for a potential Iranian retaliatory attack any day, was one of the first world leaders to call Trump and congratulate him after his victory.

The two leaders discussed Iran as a key security issue, according to Netanyahu's office. They "agreed to work together for Israel's security as well as the threat posed by Iran."

The president-elect's hard line on Iran was indicated by Brian Hook, Trump's former Iran envoy who is leading the transition team at the State Department according to several media reports.

Trump’s policy aims to isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken its economy, Hook told CNN on Thursday, adding that, though regime change is not the goal.

"President Trump has no interest in regime change in Iran. The future of Iran will be decided by the Iranian people," he said. "But Trump would isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically so that they can't fund all of the violence that's going with the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas, Hezbollah and these proxies that run around Iraq and Syria today, all of whom destabilize Israel and our (Persian) Gulf partners."

Hook called Iran the chief driver of instability in the region and said if the Trump administration decides to deter Tehran, regional countries harmed by Iranian policies will do everything they can to be part of those efforts.

In the previous Trump administration, Hook served as the US special envoy for Iran. During his tenure in office, the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander who had led the Islamic Republic's foreign military operations. That turned him as well as Trump and his state secretary, Mike Pompeo, into targets of Iran's assassination plots, according to the FBI.

Iran says 'not swayed by threats'

Following Trump's election victory, Iran's Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif expressed hope that President-elect Trump and Vice-president-elect Vance "will stand against war as pledged and will heed the clear lesson given by the American electorate to end wars and prevent new ones."

"Iran, having shown its resolve and ability to stand up to any aggression, will not be swayed by threats, but will be cognizant of respect," Zarif said.

The Trump administration, however, is not expected to accept the Iranian vice-president's olive branch. Hook said in 2019 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's actions, rather than Zarif's words, are the true marks of Iran's intentions.

"Zarif is very good at talking. This is essentially his stock in trade. And so Foreign Minister Zarif is a man without much power. The real foreign minister of Iran is Qassem Soleimani, the general of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps" Hook said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event.

"Zarif presents a very seductive storefront of this administration".

On Thursday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made no mention of the US elections in his first public speech following Donald Trump’s victory.

Instead, speaking to the members of the Experts Assembly, a council responsible for appointing his successor, he warned about the danger of “deviation” in revolutions, the current crisis in the Middle East, and promised Israel’s eventual defeat.

Khamenei repeatedly asserted in the past that the Islamic Republic would not engage in negotiations with the Trump administration. He also declined to respond to a message from Trump, delivered by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in June 2019.

Some observers suggest in the media that Khamenei may now recognize the need for direct negotiations and, as a result, could adopt a more cautious tone regarding the incoming US President. This shift may stem from Iran’s severe economic challenges, a frustrated population nearing a breaking point, and escalating tensions with Israel.

“[Ruhollah] Khomeini was just as insistent on continuing the war with Iraq, but he eventually had to accept the UN Resolution that ended the war,” Mehdi, an Iranian businessman in Tehran who voted for Pezeshkian in the hope that he may succeed in lifting the Trump-imposed sanctions told Iran International.

"But for now, he will likely maintain that nothing has changed, awaiting further details on Trump’s appointments for national security adviser, secretary of state, and Iran envoy," he added. "Their significant challenge remains the vow to avenge [Qassem] Soleimani’s death."

Khomeini referred to his acceptance of Resolution 598 to end the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in 1988 as drinking a “chalice of poison”. “Khamenei has to drink the poison, too,” Mehdi said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian briefly referred to the US elections in a meeting with his campaign members Thursday. “It will never make any difference to us who wins in the US elections because our country and system rely on our internal power and our proud and great nation.”

Nevertheless, Pezeshkian emphasized that, while his government prioritizes strengthening relations with Islamic and neighboring countries, it does not hold a "closed or limited outlook" on expanding ties with other nations.

Pezeshkian’s Strategic Affairs Deputy and former foreign minister, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, who led the US negotiations resulting in the 2015 nuclear deal, expressed hope in a tweet Thursday evening that the incoming Trump and J.D. Vance administration would “stand against war as pledged” and “heed the clear lesson given by the American electorate to end wars and prevent new ones.”

In his tweet, Zarif addressed Trump and Vance directly by tagging their accounts.

“Iran, having shown its resolve and ability to stand up to any aggression, will not be swayed by threats, but will be cognizant of respect,” he wrote without mentioning Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, the draconian sanctions that he consequently imposed on Iran, or prospects for direct talks with the US.

Quoting Khamenei’s statements about Trump, ultra-hardliners have sternly warned Zarif on social media in the past two days that he must get the thought of negotiating with “Soleimani’s murderer” out of his head.

While stressing that the Islamic Republic has had “profoundly bitter experiences” with various US administrations, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Thursday that the US elections presented an opportunity for “revisiting and revision of misguided previous approaches”.

“What is important to Iran, and an assessment criterion, is the conduct of the US government,” he added.

The President-elect has pledged to leap into action between his election on November 5 and inauguration on January 20, 2025. Traditionally, this “lame-duck” period has been one of inaction, yet the pressing military crises—one in Eastern Europe, the other in the Middle East—compel both the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administrations to coordinate with a shared sense of urgency.

Trump’s return could signal an era of decisive US diplomacy. He has vowed to stand resolutely by Israel while assuring America’s Arab allies of their security against Iran’s regional ambitions. The ongoing conflict, ignited by Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, has dragged on into its thirteenth month. Trump’s pledge to “end the conflict” has left all actors, save perhaps Israel’s Netanyahu, in a state of suspense, watching keenly to see how his foreign policy could reshape the volatile dynamics of this troubled region.

Indeed, the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House has been on the minds of all factions involved in this conflict. Analysts, too, have speculated on what Trump might achieve in the Middle East. In my previous piece, What Would a Re-elected Trump Do with Iran?, I argued that his handling of the “Iran Question” would require a strategy of global engagement, one that enlists cooperation from Russia and China. Now, the key question is: How would Trump tackle Iran and its proxies in his first hundred days?

The Middle East since 2016

When Trump first took office in 2016, Iran enjoyed unmatched ascendancy in the region. Under Obama, conciliatory policies and efforts to establish the JCPOA allowed Iran to consolidate regional power, expanding influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen under the guise of fighting ISIS. By Trump’s departure in 2020, the Middle East, though not fully at peace, was on a trajectory shaped by his policies: Iran and its proxies faced sanctions and the threat of decisive strikes, such as the killing of Qasem Soleimani. The Abraham Accords, spearheaded by Trump, brought Arab states like Bahrain and the UAE into peace with Israel.

Biden’s term, by contrast, focused on attempts to negotiate with Iran and address Israeli-Palestinian tensions, with no success. Iran exploited lax sanctions enforcement to arm proxies like the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah with drones and missiles. Biden’s mediation of a Saudi-Israeli accord, rooted in the Abraham Accords, showed diplomatic promise but was undermined by Hamas’s October 7 attack, backed by Iran.

A year later, Israel’s efforts to dismantle Hamas and Hezbollah have inflicted heavy damage on their resources, leaders, and infrastructure, dealing a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions, if more gradually than desired.

Between Biden’s lame duck period and Trump’s first 100 days

Trump’s re-emergence is an unsettling development for Iran and its proxies, while it can embolden certain leaders who, until now, were wary of Tehran’s wrath. Khamenei and his associates have responded by exhibiting a curious blend of defiance and indifference. Among Iran’s proxies, the reaction has varied: Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has pledged to continue the struggle against Israel while hinting at indirect ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC deputy chief renewed Iran’s vow to retaliate recent Israeli strikes, irrespective of Trump’s victory. In the days leading up to November 5, reports emerged of Iran moving ballistic missiles to Iraq, seemingly in preparation for attacks on Israel from Iraqi soil.

Trump’s return may also inspire leaders in nations where Iran’s influence has rendered governance nearly impossible. His firm support for Israel and conservative Arab monarchies may offer vital backing to those in Iraq and Lebanon striving to throw off Iran’s yoke. Senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Iraq has issued a powerful declaration stating that only the Iraqi army has the right to bear arms, effectively rebuking Iranian-backed militias and denouncing Iran’s use of Iraqi soil to target Israel. In Lebanon, as of three weeks ago, the Lebanese Prime Minister had already rebuked Iran’s interference in Lebanese affairs, and some in the Lebanese political establishment have called for enforcing UN Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, which mandate the disarmament of all militias—implicitly challenging Hezbollah’s powerful presence.

Should Trump follow through on his promise, and if the Biden administration remains committed to counter any Iranian escalation, the united resolve of both administrations may well give Iran pause. Khamenei, though far from an ideal rational actor, understands Biden’s outgoing team has little to lose by striking Iran decisively if provoked. Indeed, Iranian officials have reiterated Tehran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons at short notice.

If Khamenei were to gamble on developing and deploying nuclear weapons in the coming months, Trump would face a grave dilemma. On one hand, he has promised the American people to avoid foreign entanglements; on the other, he has vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and has assured security for Israel and Arab allies. Trump has both diplomatic and military options at his disposal, including pressuring Iran via Russia to dismantle any nuclear weapons or turn them over to Russian custody, or use advanced bombers equipped to penetrate Iran’s nuclear bunkers. However risky, such measures could likely gain Congressional support, especially from a Republican-led majority.

In conclusion, although irrational reprisals from Iran’s mullahs or their Hezbollah allies cannot be ruled out, Trump stands poised to act. With Congress behind him and the potential to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, Trump is a formidable foe—one whom Khamenei would be wise not to underestimate. Trump’s greatest weapon remains his unpredictability, a force he wielded against Iran before and may once again deploy with lethal precision. Should Khamenei persist in his antagonism, Trump shall see him stand corrected, and in this contest, it may well be game, set, and match.

This opinion article was submitted on Nov. 6. Opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International.

Iran has pledged retaliation for the Israeli air attacks on its missile sites on October 26, the latest direct confrontation between the regional arch-foes.

Capable of carrying large loads of munitions, the B52 deployment shown by imagery from Planet Labs indicates the United States is pushing its most powerful air assets even closer to Iran.

“All six USAF B-52 bombers at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Great image from today via our friends at Planet Labs,” Hans Kristensen, Director of Nuclear Information Project, said on X.

The US has already deployed over 100 troops in addition to the THAAD missile interceptor system and dozens of fighter jets for possible interceptions.

As Iran’s Houthi militia in Yemen continues its blockade of the Red Sea region, US B52s recently bombed underground targets there.

Last month, Israel’s hours-long aerial bombardment destroyed large swathes of Iran’s air defenses, although there have been indications that the next strike could come from Iraq, suggesting a mass drone attack while the largest ballistic missiles remain in Iran. However, the Iraqi militia has missile and ballistic capabilities.

Haaretz reported that at least 12 F-15E strike fighters are bound to Jordan to build up defenses for US allies in the region following Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an air strike in September.

The F-15Es deployment earlier “helped (Jordan) – along with the air force of Israel and other nations – to intercept the first Iranian attack on Israel on April 13, which included dozens of cruise missiles and drones, along with ballistic missiles launched at Israel,” Haaretz wrote.

After the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in September, US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, order the USS Lincoln to stay in the region to deter Iran from an attack following Nasrallah's killing.

Additional squadrons have also since been deployed and several American missile destroyers, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, remain stationed in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

Israel and Iran's war of attrition broke out after a years-long shadow war in April when Iran launched an inaugural attack on the Jewish state. In retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, it has led to a series of direct attacks between the two archenemies.

Sit-ins and strikes were seen across multiple cities protesting what nurses described as a government failure to address their demands to raise salaries, pay delayed wages, and improve working conditions.

The situation reflects years of unmet promises, with wage delays now stretching up to six months. One nurse from Kermanshah, speaking to Etemad newspaper, said that many colleagues have been forced to leave public healthcare for private sector jobs or to emigrate.

"There have been no improvements for us in the past three months," she said, highlighting that 18 of her 300 colleagues have left the hospital this year alone.

A video circulated on social media showed that nurses at Khomeini Hospital in Urmia held a protest on Thursday, with nurses chanting, "We've only heard promises; we've seen no action."

Mahmoud Amidi, a member of the Nurse House non-profit society, criticized security crackdowns saying some had been suspended for participating in protests or voicing concerns on social media.

"The actions taken against protesting nurses are unjust," he said, adding that such suspensions only worsen the existing nursing shortage.

Amidi said the impact of low pay and heavy workloads is having a ripple effect on the healthcare system, already at breaking point. “Who will stay in this profession for just 110 to 120 million rials ($150–$170) per month?”, he said, at least one third of Iranians already pushed below the poverty line.

The escalating protests come amid a reported shortage of 100,000 nurses across Iran’s health system, even as 50,000 trained nurses remain unemployed. Mohammad Sharifi-Moghaddam, Secretary-General of the Nursing House, warned that unless systemic issues are addressed, newly recruited nurses will likely leave the profession.

In recent months, healthcare staff have organized protests in nearly 50 cities, demanding changes to wages, workload, and working conditions. In August, a strike saw participation from nurses at 70 hospitals across Iran, a protest that lasted over a month. Since then, some 1,500 nurses have reportedly left their jobs, with 500 emigrating abroad.

As protests continue to spread across Iran’s hospitals, healthcare workers are pressing for concrete actions to address their demands. Representatives from the nursing community have warned that if conditions do not improve, strikes and other protests will likely intensify.