Iran International
President-elect Donald Trump’s high-level appointments may signal the direction and tone of his policies toward Iran's Islamic government in the coming weeks, though he has shared little about his immediate intentions.
The reported involvement of Trump’s former Special Envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, on the State Department transition team has drawn attention from Iran watchers and Iranian Americans, who view it as a signal of a tougher stance toward Tehran following four years of more lenient policies under the Biden administration. However, Hook is not the only “Iran hawk” being considered for Trump’s senior policy team.
Former Ambassador Richard Grenell
Richard Grenell, former US ambassador to Germany during Trump’s first term, had an active role during his recent campaign and joined candidate Trump in his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky, when he visited the US in September. Grenell’s name is being mentioned in the US media as a possible leading figure in Trump’s foreign policy team, either to lead the State Department or be a top presidential advisor.
Although Grenell is a staunch supporter of Trump’s policies, he is also an experienced diplomat, who is well familiar with Europe and their relations with Iran. In a recent interview with Newsmax, Grenell was cautious not to echo calls by some Trump supporters to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia. He told the interviewer that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is important, when asked if land concessions to Russia can stop the war. In the same interview, he criticized the US decision to allow Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian to visit New York for the UN General Assembly, although he pointed out that Pezeshkian faced daily protests outside his hotel.
Grenell has also been a strong critic of Iran not just for its nuclear program and military and foreign policies, but also for its human rights record, particularly on LGBTQ rights. In April 2022, he told Iran International TV, “We know that they deny systemically, every single day, basic human rights for women, for gays and lesbians, for the general population”.
In April 2022, the former ambassador was sanctioned, along with 23 other US figures by Iran for “terrorist activity and human rights violations.” In his interview, Grenell argued that Tehran does not sanction Democrats because they “are darting towards the Iranian regime.” He went on to say, “The Biden administration is filled with total hypocrisy. They pretend to talk about human rights, but it doesn't come into their calculus… they're talking about giving money to the Iranian regime, they dropped the sanctions on the Iranian regime.”
Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien
Another former senior Trump national security aide being considered possibly for Secretary of State is Robert O’Brien, who previously served as Trump’s hostage negotiator and later as national security advisor. He played a key role in 2019 in releasing a Princeton graduate student, Xiyue Wang, imprisoned in Iran on a ten-year sentence, after a secret trial without due process. In fact it was a prisoner exchange without any monetary ransom being paid, compared to a deal the Biden administration made in 2023, when $6 billion of Iran’s frozen funds were released in exchange for five hostages.
O’Brien, a lawyer with extensive experience in foreign affairs, would add stability and depth to Trump’s national security and foreign policy team. He is well-versed in Iran-related issues and, in a December 2022 talk at the Council on Foreign Relations, strongly defended the stance of those opposing President Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, criticizing it as a “$150 billion gift” to Tehran in exchange for a weak agreement.
“I remember at the time President Obama had a very eloquent inauguration speech when he said: We’ll reach out our hand if you’ll unclench your fist. Well, we reached out our hand with 150 billion (dollars) in it, and they took the 150 billion (dollars) and spent it on Kata’ib Hezbollah and on the Houthis and on Hamas and on the Assad regime and created death and mayhem all over the Middle East,” he argued.
O’Brien does not perceive Iran’s Islamic government as pliable to change its ideological essence. Criticizing Western liberal notions that financial enrichment can lead to political liberalization, he said, “Well…if we trade with them, and we give them concessions, they’ll become rich, they’ll become more like us, they’ll become more democratic. The Iranian regime became more autocratic, exported more terrorism, created more mayhem in the world, killed more Americans and others. So bad idea from the start.”
The former national security advisor holds the view that Iran must make major concessions not just on its nuclear program, but also its ballistic missiles and its regional interventions – crucial points in Trump’s demands when he withdrew from the JCPOA. Agreeing that eventually there should be a deal with Iran, O’Brien has said, “There’s a ballistic missile program that holds Israel at risk, but all of our allies in Europe and eventually will hold us at risk, should be curtailed and stopped. The nuclear program should be stopped. And support of terrorism in the region should be stopped. And the attempts to assassinate former government officials and dissidents in America and Europe should stop.”
Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.)
US media also mention Republican Senator Bill Hagerty as a possible Secretary of State, Treasury or Commerce. He served as trump’s ambassador to Japan and was an economic advisor in the George W. Bush White House.
Hagerty has been outspoken on Iran related issues in the Senate, often criticizing the Biden administration’s policies and conduct regarding the Middle East and joining other Republicans demanding more pressure on Tehran.
He sharply criticized the administration earlier this year for not being candid about its Iran envoy Robert Malley who was suspended in 2023 for alleged security breaches at his job. He also accused Malley of being behind lack of sanctions enforcement by the administration. He told a Senate panel that the Iran envoy convinced the US government “to look the other way,” so that Iran could sell more oil to China in exchange for limiting its nuclear activities. “It is a disgrace,” he told the panel.
Hagerty also slammed the $6 billion deal that led to the release of five prisoners held by Iran, and on many occasions criticized Tehran’s human rights violations.
Another major political figure being mentioned as a possible Secretary of State is Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who holds strong pro-Israel views and has regularly blamed Iran for creating mayhem in the region. In April, after an Iranian missile attack on Israel, Rubio told the CNN, “Iran knows it cannot beat Israel militarily. But what it does aspire to do is make Israel an impossible place to live in and a place no one wants to visit.”
Following Iran's ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1, and the likelihood of Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian oil facilities, especially the Kharg oil terminal, Iran’s oil loadings sharply declined.
Arman Azizian, a senior analyst at the energy consulting firm Vortexa, told Iran International that Iran's loadings of crude and biproducts dropped to 1.5 million barrels per day in October, with most of this decline occurring in the first half of the month.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at the commodity data intelligence firm, Kpler, told Iran International that Iran's loadings fell from 1.826 mb/d in September to 1.473 mb/d last month, marking a daily decline of around 350,000 barrels, which equates to a loss of $800 million in oil export value during the month.
In 2018, then President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), leading to a rapid drop in Iran’s oil exports—from 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 350,000 barrels within two years. As a result, Iran’s oil revenue in 2020 fell to less than one-tenth of its 2017 levels.
With the Biden administration’s lenient approach, Iran’s daily oil exports saw a significant increase each year, peaking at a record 1.85 mb/d in September of this year, the highest level in five years.
China is the main buyer of Iranian crude oil, having imported an average of over 1.5 million barrels per day from Iran in the first ten months of this year, accounting for 94% of Iran's total oil exports. During the same period, Iran also sent around 46,000 barrels per day to Syria and about 20,000 barrels to Brunei and unknown destinations.
Trump’s Return
Donald Trump’s return to the White House might endanger the Iranian government’s daily crude oil export target of 1.85 million barrels in next year’s budget—250,000 barrels more than Iran’s average oil exports this year and 550,000 barrels more than last year.
With Trump’s return, Iran’s oil exports are not expected to plummet suddenly to 2020 levels (350,000 barrels per day). However, the growth will certainly not continue and will likely experience a gradual decline.
Iran’s oil buyers in China are mostly small, independent refineries, which might resist US pressure for a while. Ultimately, however, given the $575 billion annual trade between China and the US, it seems unlikely that Beijing will withstand demands for a significant reduction in Iranian oil imports.
Moreover, Iran’s expanded ability to export more oil to China due to weak US sanctions enforcement since 2021 has led to a reduction in the discount it offers Chinese refineries—from $13 in 2023 to under $4 in recent months. However, a tougher US approach under the upcoming administration could prompt Chinese refineries to cut their Iranian oil purchases and demand larger discounts to continue buying.
Additionally, almost all Iranian oil exports to China are facilitated through intermediaries in Iraq, Oman, and especially Malaysia, incurring significant costs for Iran to evade sanctions. With Trump poised to enforce stricter measures, these intermediary costs are expected to increase substantially.