Trump's victory intensifies challenges for Iranian president

Reported by the Washington Free Beacon, it points to growing tensions over transparency in the handling of Malley’s case amid an ongoing FBI investigation into his alleged mishandling of classified information.

Malley, suspended in 2023, is under FBI investigation for mishandling classified information. CASA claims the State Department has ignored Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for related documents.

“The State Department has blocked CASA's investigation for nearly seven months, ignoring a series of Freedom of Information Act requests aimed at unearthing details about the circumstances surrounding Malley's suspension and subsequent efforts to hide his misdeeds from Congress,” The Washington Free Beacon reported on Tuesday.

CASA’s lawsuit seeks to obtain internal communications detailing Malley’s suspension, his security clearance revocation, and potential breaches. The group also requested documents from the National Archives related to Malley’s previous government roles, which it says could reveal longstanding interactions with Iranian officials.

Malley was placed on unpaid leave, and his security clearance was suspended in April 2023. Iran International first reported the incident in June, but the State Department has since obstructed all efforts to obtain further information on Malley’s case.

In May, two influential congressmen suggested that Malley’s security clearance was revoked due to his transfer of classified documents to his personal email and cell phone, which were then stolen by a hostile cyber actor.

In September, a Wall Street Journal report stated that “Malley had clicked on a phishing link, compromising a personal email account.” Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report also revealed that investigators found evidence suggesting “Malley had potentially moved classified material, including meeting notes, to a personal account.”

CASA’s director, James Fitzpatrick, said the public "has a right to know" about potential security risks tied to Malley’s alleged actions.

State-controlled media interpreted Khamenei’s response as a positive answer to the young man's question. However, within hours, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, who had previously stated, “The nature of the Islamic Republic is peaceful, but we will be armed with anything needed to defend Iran,” backtracked, clarifying, “We rule out weapons of mass destruction, but we will be armed with whatever is necessary.”

Iran’s military and regional influence has recently weakened, as Israel has significantly degraded Hamas and Hezbollah’s capabilities and launched an offensive strike on Iran on October 26 with dozens of warplanes. In response, Islamic ruling establishment's officials and commentators in Tehran have hinted at possible shifts in military doctrine, including the potential pursuit of nuclear weapons.

On November 1, Iran’s former foreign minister and currently an advisor to Khamenei, Kamal Kharrazi said in an interview that "If the Islamic Republic of Iran faces an existential threat, we would have no choice but to adjust our military doctrine.”

Subsequently, political observers from various insider factions came up with their own justifications and denials about the Islamic Republic's plans to make nuclear bombs.

Hardline commentator Abbas Salimi-Namin stated, “We are not bluffing about making nuclear weapons, but we do not believe in it!” He continued, “We have conventional weapons to defend ourselves with dignity. At the same time, we are on course to end the Zionist regime at the lowest possible cost.”

Salimi-Namin clarified that Kamal Kharrazi was not suggesting a shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine. Instead, he indicated that Iran does not intend to address the issue of Israel through military force. “Although we have the [nuclear] capability, we adhere to our previously declared position of not using nuclear weapons,” he stated.

This reflects a retreat by both an official close to Khamenei and a hardline commentator from earlier bold statements about potentially going nuclear.

Salimi-Namin also reiterated that Iran’s solution for the Palestinian issue remains a referendum. “We believe in this approach and do not need nuclear weapons,” he emphasized.

He added that Iran has only acted in response to aggression and argued that it is in the West’s interest to control Israel, as global condemnation of Israel also implicates the United States.

Centrist politician Ezzatollah Yousefian-Molla emphasized in an interview with Nameh News that “nuclear weapons are meant to boost a country’s deterrence power; they are not necessarily intended for use.”

However, he added, “If we find our weapons inadequate compared to those of our enemy, the fatwa [religious decree by Khamenei] prohibiting nuclear bomb development might be reconsidered.”

Discussing potential shifts in Iran’s nuclear doctrine, Yousefian-Molla explained that religious decrees are often adaptable. He cited the 19th-century fatwa banning tobacco, which was later revised by Muslim scholars when the political context changed. He reiterated that religious rulings can be modified to protect the regime, while noting, “We will never strike first; we respond only if attacked.”

Meanwhile, hardline lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani remarked, “A shift in our nuclear doctrine will enhance our deterrence power,” clarifying that the goal is not to produce nuclear weapons but to strengthen Iran’s defense capabilities.

“We have already paid the price,” he stated referring to years of economic sanction, “and now we need to take the final step. The Supreme Leader has said our response to Israel will be proportionate to their attack. But what will we do if Israel uses nuclear weapons?”

"The outcome of the US presidential election will not bring about significant change and all necessary preparations and forecasts have been proactively planned. The livelihood of the people will remain unaffected," government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told domestic media.

Iranian state media has remained largely silent on the election, while many Iranians turned to social media to share celebratory messages.

Some major American news outlets have yet to call the election definitively for Trump, although Fox News declared his victory after he secured Pennsylvania early Wednesday.

Several world leaders, including those from Israel, France, and Australia, have swiftly extended their congratulations to Donald Trump on his election victory.

“There isn’t much difference between Trump and Harris,” Mohajerani said, adding that Iranian government policy has been “pre-planned to account for the outcome, and there will be no change in the livelihood of the people.”

“We are not worried about Trump’s election victory,” she added.

The head of the country's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, also commented on Trump’s victory, saying that the state pursues its own interests in strategic goals and the nuclear industry.

“Our program is not influenced by any changes in the US and will not change,” he said on Wednesday.

Trump told reporters on Tuesday that Tehran "can't have nuclear weapons."

"My terms are very easy," Trump said in Florida after casting his vote. "I'd like them to be a very successful country."

The latest comments by Iranian officials are in line with Iranian state-media narratives in recent days, with domestic experts that the election result will not have a significant impact on the country.

In contrast, Iranians on social media have been vocal, expressing jubilation and humor over Trump’s win, with some jokingly dubbing him the "Chef of the Cutlet."

The term refers to Qasem Soleimani, the former IRGC Quds Force commander killed by a US drone strike ordered by Trump in 2020. Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic mockingly call the day of his death "Cutlet Day," likening Soleimani's fate to a popular ground meat dish in Iran.

Adding to the reactions, both prominent users and ordinary citizens shared images of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appearing tearful, hinting at his potential dismay over the prospect of Trump’s return to office.

Others, including the user Parinaz Etesam, hypothesized about the impact of Trump’s re-election and the future of Iran.

"Is it possible that in a year when Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, and Hassan Nasrallah are killed and Trump is re-elected, we could witness the downfall of the Islamic Republic?” Etesam wrote, reflecting some of the sentiments shared by other opponents of the state.

As global news coverage centered on Trump’s continued gains, the Iranian currency, the rial, sharply declined, with the dollar reaching a record high of 720,000 rials on Wednesday.

The spike in the dollar’s exchange rate has raised concerns among some Iranians that Trump’s victory could bring intensified economic hardship for the country.

On social media, some Iranian users commented that while a weakened rial could worsen poverty, that economic pressure could also be a catalyst to eventually see the end of the Islamic Republic.

Despite these reactions and market anxieties, Iranian officials had previously downplayed Trump’s projected win. Today, possibly in anticipation of further sanctions, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stated, "Previous sanctions significantly strengthened our domestic resilience, and today’s economy is sufficiently capable of handling this."

Iranian government critics were also quick to respond, pointing to leadership promises of reform. Some users referenced recent statements by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who had pledged to lift economic sanctions, questioning whether his assurances could withstand a Trump administration.

Another tweet said, “Trump’s presidency means the end of the Islamic Republic’s four-year reprieve with America.” It suggested that Trump’s return could bring “difficult days ahead” for Khamenei and the IRGC, whom he described as facing repercussions for efforts to eliminate Trump.

While Iranian media remains silent on Trump’s election, social media activity and market reactions reflect the unease and anticipation many Iranians feel as they brace for what a second Trump term could mean for the nation.

Shahin Milani is also an Iranian-American and traditionally voted Democrat but this year he’s not voting at all, saying he’s disappointed in both candidates.

In a special election interview on Eye for Iran, with Iran International, both Milani and Namdar—despite their differing views—agree on one thing: disappointment with the Biden-Harris administration’s policies on Iran.

Milani said he would have voted Democrat had they taken a tougher stance on the Islamic Republic. He cited a lack of creativity of going beyond the Iran Nuclear Deal and gave examples where he felt the current administration downplayed human rights abuses in Iran.

But when it comes to Trump, he said he just can’t vote for him.

“Voting for Donald Trump was also not an option because he did not accept the results of the last election and for me the peaceful transfer of power is the most important thing. It's the bedrock of Western liberal democracy,” said Milani.

He said he doesn’t feel like either party belongs to him, describing himself as being politically homeless.

Not voting, he believes is his only course of action.

Namdar made a shift away from the Democrats, and once a never-Trumper, she has now turned into one of an advocate of the former US president. For her, it was a grieving process to get her to that point.

“I've been historically anti-Trump,” said Namdar.

But the October 7, 2023, Hamas invasion of Israel changed everything for her.

She lost friends over disagreements after the attacks and what she described as a lack of sympathy from her friends.

“I don't agree with Trump on everything, but the fact that the biggest issue here is the Islamic Republic of Iran. That's the most important thing.”

In 2024, she's a single-issue voter, focused squarely on the traditional Republican “maximum pressure” approach to Iran versus what she sees as the Democrats' policy of appeasement.

The US intelligence community warned on Monday that American adversaries like Iran are intensifying disinformation efforts around the elections by promoting false narratives. In the summer, US authorities announced that Iran was funneling money to influence anti-Israel college campus protests. That for Namdar and experiencing antisemitism was a redline.

While the Iranian vote is not going to make a difference in the outcome of the US elections, this year’s candidates had a huge impact on the Iranian-American electorate and has been life changing for some like Namdar and Milani.

For more on the discussion, you can watch the full interview on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox, or Amazon.

From economists to lawmakers, commentators asserted that Iran's economy has become resilient to external pressure and whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is elected will make little difference.

Iran’s economy remains under severe strain due to decades of mismanagement and international pressure. The economic landscape is marred by high inflation, low growth, and strained relations with the West with no end in sight.

Seyed Yousef Hosseini, former head of the Currency Committee at the Iran Chamber of Commerce, urged domestic media to focus on budget analysis rather than what he sees as sensationalism around the US polls.

“While the US election might have a limited, short-term psychological effect on Iran’s economy at the beginning of the new US administration, its overall impact is minimal,” he told ISNA.

“Some even suggest that if Trump wins, Iran’s economy will suffer major negative consequences. If Trump had the power to effect substantial change, he would have done so during his previous term when he was at the peak of his influence,” he said in a separate appearance on Mehr News, which operates under the state’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

Economist Mohammadreza Ranjbar Fallah also said there is little difference in Democratic and Republican policies toward Iran.

In an interview with the state-controlled Tasnim agency, Fallah said the US election results will not significantly alter the sanctions landscape, suggesting that all possible sanctions have already been applied and that little new damage is likely.

President Barack Obama and President Joe Biden's democratic administrations prioritized a deal over Iran's disputed nuclear program, which under the former provided sanctions relief. Republicans under Donald Trump favored a maximum pressure approach which deepened Iran’s economic pain.

"Not much value"

In contrast, Fada-Hossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, told a domestic outlet that it does matter whether Trump or Harris becomes the next US president.

“One clear fact remains: the Americans did not fulfill their JCPOA commitments," the senior Iranian lawmaker added, referring to the nuclear deal. "For Trump to bring us back to the negotiating table, he would need to pay a heavy price.”

Agreeing with that viewpoint, economist and University of Tehran professor Albert Baghzian suggested that although US election outcomes may affect sanctions and diplomatic tensions, Tehran should not rely on external shifts for economic relief.

"If Republicans regain power, they will likely continue strict policies toward Iran, including increased sanctions … Democrats may follow similar policies but tend to pursue less aggressive means," Baghzian said.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi joined the chorus attempting to downplay the relevance of the election, saying on Tuesday that Tehran’s foreign policy will remain unchanged.

"We do not place much value on the US presidential election or on who is elected, and it has no impact on Iran's fundamental and strategic positions," Araghchi said.

Hamid Hosseini, a domestic expert on the country’s oil and gas industry and a member of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, told ISNA that Iran’s alliance with China acts as a buffer against Western pressures, particularly in the oil sector.

“With Iran’s strategic relations with China, there’s no need to worry that the US election will disrupt our oil exports,” Hosseini said.

Outside of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former monarch, told podcaster Patrick Bet-David recently that the economic pressure exerted on Tehran by former President Donald Trump almost made the Islamic Republic fall.

Pahlavi argued that with the Republican sanctions regime, the momentum was “in the right direction” to help Iranians overthrow the clerical state.

Republicans, including Senator Ted Cruz, have highlighted that Iran's oil exports are now at their highest levels since 2018, blaming the Biden administration for strengthening Iran rather than weakening it.

Democrats, on the other hand, argue that they have imposed one of the toughest sanctions regimes on Tehran to curb its influence in the region.