Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that economic turmoil in Iran is expected to persist, with some indicators worsening significantly compared to previous years.
The IMF states that for Iran to avoid a budget deficit next year, global oil prices would need to reach above $124 per barrel—a figure 70% higher than the current Brent crude prices on international markets. According to the report, Iran needed oil prices above $121 this year to prevent a budget shortfall, which did not materialize, leading the government to engage in substantial borrowing.
Since 2018, when the US imposed stringent sanctions on the Islamic Republic, the Iranian government has faced substantial budget deficits, compelling it to resort to extensive borrowing. Data from the IMF's database reveals that Iran's net government debt will reach 59,000 trillion rials this year, nearly double the amount in 2018, and is projected to quadruple again by 2029.
In US dollar terms, the IMF data shows Iran's gross government debt will reach around $150 billion this year, an increase of $26 billion from the previous year, and will peak at $162 billion next year, amounting to nearly 35% of the country’s GDP.
To offset budget deficits and secure loans from financial institutions, the Iranian government has pressured the Central Bank to print unsupported currency. According to IMF figures, liquidity in Iran has surged annually by 25-40% in recent years, with projected increases above 27% this year and next.
This increased liquidity has fueled runaway inflation. Over the past several years, Iran has consistently ranked among the top 10 countries with the highest inflation rates, and next year it is expected to have the sixth-highest inflation globally.
However, the IMF’s figures about inflation are based on data provided by Iran's Statistical Center, which tends to underestimate market inflation rates. For example, while the Statistical Center reported October inflation at 34%, the head of Iran's Central Bank announced in early November that inflation was actually at 38%. Reports from domestic media suggest the real inflation rate is even higher than that estimated by the head of Central Bank.
Another key point in the IMF report is the anticipated deceleration of Iran's economic growth. Economic growth has dropped from 5% last year to 3.7% this year, and it is expected to decrease each year, reaching only 2% by 2029. However, these growth forecasts assume Iran avoids a conflict with Israel. Most of Iran’s economic growth in 2023 was due to higher oil exports to China.
Earlier this year, the IMF warned that if Iran were to engage in even a limited regional conflict, its economy could shrink by around 5% in 2024. The IMF has also cautioned that any direct involvement in conflicts could push Iran's inflation rate above 100%, with accessible foreign exchange reserves falling to zero by the end of 2024.
According to the IMF, Iran’s accessible foreign exchange reserves stand at $26 billion this year, a sharp drop from the average of approximately $68 billion over the past two decades. Iran has twice targeted Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones this year, but Israel’s response has been limited to attacks on specific military targets within Iran. However, the Islamic government is threatening to attack Israel again, and the United States has warned Iran that in such a case it cannot moderate Israel’s response.
The wave of executions comes in the shadows of the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, a backdrop some rights advocates argue is being used to divert attention from the domestic situation.
Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, director of the Norway-based organization, said: “While the world’s attention is focused on the tensions between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic is using this opportunity to conduct the largest wave of executions in Iran’s prisons in two decades."
He called on the international community to respond with urgency, warning of potentially even higher execution rates in the coming months under the threat of a regional conflict.
Among those executed were Afghan, Baluch, and Kurdish citizens, and at least six women. Charges varied widely, encompassing intentional murder, drug-related offenses, and ambiguous charges like “enmity against God” and “corruption on earth” with two of the executions conducted publicly.
The group's report touched on the role capital punishment has played in Iran’s judicial system. Iran's use of the death penalty has consistently drawn criticism from global human rights organizations, with Amnesty International recently findings showing that nearly 75% of documented executions worldwide in 2023 took place in Iran.
In a report marking World Day Against the Death Penalty, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) documented at least 811 executions in Iran over the past year, a figure that includes Jamshid Sharmahd, a German-Iranian national whose execution last week sparked international outrage.
Mai Sato, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, also addressed the increase in executions in her first report, saying that Iran’s intensified use of the death penalty extends beyond recognized legal standards.
Citing the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Sato added that the death penalty should be reserved for only the “most serious crimes,” expressing concern over charges like “corruption on earth” being used as grounds for execution.
According to the Iran Human Rights Organization, more than 350 people have been executed in the three months since Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidency began, an acceleration that coincides with growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and regional conflicts.
Sholeh Zamini, a women’s rights advocate (where is she based?), commented that Iran’s consistent refusal to allow UN special rapporteurs to conduct in-country investigations prevents an accurate assessment of these human rights violations.
“The Islamic Republic has always blocked UN rapporteurs, likely because it wishes to keep its human rights abuses out of the international spotlight,” Zamini noted.
As in previous years, Iran’s execution record has extended to ethnic and religious minorities, with Afghan citizens facing increasing rates of execution since the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan.
The report shows that at least 49 Afghans were executed in the first ten months of 2024, a trend rights advocates attribute to both political motivations and racial discrimination within Iran’s justice system.
Roya Boroumand, executive director of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation, a US-based human rights organization, sees the pattern of heightened executions as a response to internal instability which has remained high since the 2022 uprising.
“Historically, the government ramps up executions when it feels threatened or unstable. We saw this following the Iran-Iraq War and during the nuclear negotiations under President Hassan Rouhani, when the annual execution rate reached 1,050,” she explained.
Boroumand further highlighted an emerging trend of capital punishment extending to women. “It used to be mostly minorities, but now even regular citizens, including women, are receiving death sentences,” she said, pointing to what she described as a means of intimidating the broader population in times of unrest.
Following the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising after the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody in 2022, Iran’s leadership has increasingly wielded the death penalty as a means of suppressing dissent.
Amnesty International reported that Tehran’s intensifying reliance on capital punishment appears aimed at instilling fear and reinforcing the government’s control.