Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Recent statistics from Iran’s Central Bank indicate that the private sector has been largely eliminated from large-scale foreign trade and replaced with government entities, which are engaged in billions of dollars of imports.
The data shows that these entities were the primary recipients of foreign currencies from the Central Bank that is the repository of US dollars, euros and other stable currencies importers need to conduct business. As large-scale currency trading is controlled by the government, it has set up various rates. For essential imports it provides dollars at half the free market rate, subsidizing food and medicines.
Meanwhile, customs data reveals that the majority of the country's exports come from government-controlled petrochemical, steel, oil and gas products, indicating the gradual exclusion of the private sector from Iran's foreign trade.
The latest Central Bank statistics show that since the beginning of the current fiscal year (March 20), a total of $37.2 billion has been allocated for the import of goods.
On October 15, Mohammad Rezvani-Far, the head of Iran's Customs Administration, announced that during this period, non-oil exports reached $29.5 billion, while imports amounted to $37 billion.
The key point here is that the Central Bank recently reported that in the first half of the current fiscal year (March 20 to September 20), it allocated $32.4 billion to the ministries of Industry, Agriculture, and Health for imports. Customs data also shows that the total value of imports in the first six months of this fiscal year was $32.5 billion. In other words, the private sector has been effectively sidelined from the country’s import activities.
The Central Bank plans to allocate a total of $55 billion to the ministries of Industry, Agriculture, and Health for imports during this fiscal year. Last year, Iran imported $66.2 billion worth of goods, $1.9 billion of which was gold bullion. If Iran's imports remain at last year's level, 85% of the total imports will be handled by the three government ministries, leaving only 15% to be managed by other government and semi-governmental entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the real private sector.
Approximately, $8.13 billion of the foreign currency allocated by the Central Bank for the import of food and medicine was provided at the rate of 285,000 rials, or less than half of the free market rate. The rest was supplied at higher, but still preferential rates. The remaining imports were made at the free market exchange rate, which stood at around 600,000 rials per dollar.
Central Bank and customs data show that the real private sector lacks access to the government's subsidized currency at the rate of 285,000 rials and has very limited access to the higher preferential rate. As a result, the private sector must rely solely on the free market exchange rate to import goods, severely limiting its ability to compete.
$7 Billion Trade Deficit in the First Half of the Year
Iranian customs data indicates a $7 billion deficit in the country’s non-oil foreign trade during the first half of the current fiscal year.
Last fiscal year, Iran’s non-oil trade deficit also reached an unprecedented figure of $17 billion. Customs data shows that in the first half of the current year, non-oil exports amounted to $25.8 billion, while imports reached $32.5 billion.
Although Iran earns revenue from oil exports, capital flight from the country is also significant. Since 2018, coinciding with US sanctions, Iran's capital account has been negative.
For instance, last year, Iran exported $36 billion worth of oil and oil-related products, and the overall trade balance of the country was a positive $18 billion. However, the latest Central Bank report indicates that during the first nine months of last year, over $20 billion in capital fled the country.
Additionally, Central Bank data shows that Iran's service trade balance is consistently negative by around $7 to $8 billion each year.
It is unclear exactly what the state of Iran’s foreign currency reserves is, given the trade imbalance and widespread capital flight. However, in an effort to slow the decline of the rial, the Central Bank has been forced to inject large amounts of foreign currency into the market.
The appointment on Sunday of Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian was confirmed in a cabinet meeting led by Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate.
Motamedian, who previously served in key positions in the ministry of intelligence, has been accused of overseeing mass arrests and authorizing the use of lethal force during the 2022 uprising in West Azerbaijan province.
The unrest was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police enforcing Iran's mandatory hijab law.
“Motamedian played a critical role in suppressing protests in Urmia, Mahabad, and other cities, where dozens of protesters were killed,” according to Justice for Iran, a human rights organization.
Born in Kermanshah in 1970, Motamedian has held various positions in the Iranian government over the past two decades, including roles as governor of South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan. In October 2021, he was the first senior Iranian official to meet with Taliban leaders in Afghanistan following their return to power.
Motamedian’s tenure as governor of West Azerbaijan saw the deaths of at least 56 protesters in the province, part of a broader crackdown by the Iranian government that resulted in more than 550 protesters being killed nationwide, according to human rights groups including the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization.
Motamedian’s appointment comes in the context of President Pezeshkian’s broader governance approach, which has seen other controversial figures placed in key provincial positions.
Earlier this month Pezeshkian named Hossein Ali Amiri, a former judiciary official known for persecuting Jewish and Baha’i communities as governor of Fars Province. Amiri oversaw the 1999 arrest of 13 Jewish citizens in Shiraz for espionage on behalf of Israel - a charge frequently used against religious minorities in Iran.
Pezeshkian has faced criticism over his cabinet picks, particularly for naming as interior minister Eskandar Momeni, who has an extensive military and law enforcement background and played a role in suppressing popular protests in 2017, 2019, and 2022.