Israel says attack on Iran's nuclear sites still on the table

The naming and sovereignty of the body of water and its islands are a deep-felt issue inside Iran and among its diaspora and stands as one of the few political themes uniting the Iranian people.

The EU-GCC joint statement on Wednesday described three Iranian-controlled Persian Gulf islands disputed between the Islamic Republic and the United Arab Emirates as "occupied" and urged Iran to relinquish control.

Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands have been held by Tehran since 1971 after the withdrawal of British forces from the Persian Gulf.

"Iran's territorial integrity is not a subject for foreigners to dare discuss," government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a post on X.

"(The islands) are inseparable parts of Great Iran. The European Union and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council are in no position to comment on the great land of Iran," she added.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, who just completed a diplomatic tour of the Arab world to shore up support ahead of a likely Israeli attack, condemned the move as a colonial practice but spared Arab states.

"The three islands have always belonged to Iran and will forever remain as such. The era of European malign 'divide & rule' interference in our region is long over," he wrote on X.

The spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs went further, characterizing the statement as a violation of the international system's core principles.

"This is a clear indication of the member states' lack of commitment to the principles and objectives of the United Nations Charter, especially the principle of respect for national sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states,” Esmail Baghaei said.

Iran maintains that the islands have been an intrinsic part of its sovereign territory, asserting that it has never ceded ownership. The UAE counters that throughout the 19th century, the islands were under the jurisdiction of the Qasimi sheikhs and that their claim was transferred to the UAE upon its establishment in 1971.

The islands came under British administration in 1921, but on November 30, 1971—one day after British forces withdrew and just two days before the UAE's official formation—Iran's then-monarch, Mohammad Reza Shah, ordered the Iranian navy to take control of all three islands.

Iranian military forces have remained on the islands ever since, with Abu Musa being the only one inhabited by a civilian population which numbers fewer than two thousand.

The Prince's speech

The Shah's son, exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi - one of the most prominent Iranian opposition figure - also weighed in harshly.

"If the European Council were serious about addressing the threat of the Islamic Republic, it would designate the IRGC a terrorist organization and back UN sanctions on the regime," he said, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

"Instead, it insults the Iranian people by supporting perversions of history and colonialist violations of Iranian territorial integrity. Iran's sovereignty over the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa is not up for debate."

Iranian social media accounts too were ablaze with anger, with many users ranging from government supporters to dissidents arguing for Iran's sovereignty over the islands.

Political activist Fariborz Karami Zand, who has over half a million followers on X, directed his ire at Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

"The UAE’s claims over these islands have no historical or legal foundation. Any discussions about Iran’s territorial integrity must be based on historical facts, not on groundless fantasies."

The EU-GCC joint statement represents a growing international trend of supporting the UAE's claims to the islands. In recent years, key international players, including the United States, Russia, and China, have leaned towards supporting the UAE in this dispute.

China expressed its support for the UAE's claims during a meeting in June, while Russia backed the UAE's position during a summit with GCC ministers in December last year. The moves have left Iran feeling increasingly isolated on the international stage regarding the issue.

Iran's standing in the West has been increasingly marred by its alignment with groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as its deepening military cooperation with Russia since its full-scale Ukraine invasion.

Sinwar, the de facto chief of Hamas and the mastermind of the October 7, 2023 attack which rocked Israel, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza this week.

Ismail Haniyeh was his predecessor as the Iran-backed group's political chief and was killed in an explosion targeting his guesthouse in Tehran in July in a likely Israeli attack.

The two men traveled to Tehran in 2012 as part of Hamas delegation to meet Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in which their party was seen striding through an official compound alongside late senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

Soleimani headed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp's elite Quds Force until he was killed in an American drone strike in Baghdad in 2020.

Following Haniyeh's assassination, Khamenei's office released footage of the 2012 audience in which Haniyeh singles out Sinwar for an introduction to the Supreme Leader, citing his two and half decades behind bars in Israel.

In a 2017 speech broadcast by Lebanese pro-Iranian TV channel Al Mayadeen, Sinwar confirmed that Soleimani had offered Hamas all means at Iran's disposal to aid their cause while offering no conditions on the group's methods.

Soleimani, Sinwar said, told him during his 2012 visit to Tehran that all capabilities would be deployed to advance the Palestinian struggle to win Jerusalem as their capital.

On Thursday, October 17, the rial briefly traded at 640,000 per US dollar, down from 590,000 in August, before Israel began its punishing attacks on Iran’s proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and eventually killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This led to an Iranian retaliation with ballistic missiles on October 1. Since then, Iran has been expecting a retaliatory strike by Israel.

With inflation hovering around 40% over the past five years, the government has little room to maneuver on economic issues, compounded by a massive budget deficit. US sanctions imposed in 2018 have significantly cut Iran's oil export revenues, which typically account for about half of the government’s budget.

This year, the government faces a budget deficit exceeding $14 billion according to the minister of economy, out of a total budget of roughly $40 billion. One way to deal with the deficit is to raise income, however, despite maximizing oil exports to its sole buyer, China, revenues are falling 26% short of estimates. Another source of income would be taxes, but the government has already increased taxes last year and it cannot raise more revenue in this way while the economy remains stagnant.

Another likely solution is to borrow more funds from the central bank, but that would mean printing more money, which will fuel higher inflation. The extensive borrowing in recent years has resulted in a staggering liquidity level of 83,540 trillion rials (approximately $139 billion), which has doubled since 2021. This surge in liquidity has contributed to an annual inflation rate exceeding 40% in recent years.

Reducing expenditures could help lower the budget deficit, but it's a difficult task in a state-controlled economy where the private sector has largely vanished from major industries. Loss-making government factories and companies rely heavily on state financing and subsidies to stay afloat. Without this support, they would be forced to close, further exacerbating unemployment in an already high-inflation environment.

Corruption among government insiders is also a heavy burden, woven into the fabric of the political and economic system. Former officials and pundits who are allowed to speak raise the alarm, but the ruling system is unable to make fundamental changes without democratic accountability.

The government's biggest financial burden comes from direct and indirect subsidies, which are politically risky to eliminate. Gasoline is sold for under 10 US cents per gallon, with similarly low rates for electricity and natural gas. These subsidies cost the state about $60 billion annually. However, when the government last raised gasoline prices in 2019, it triggered widespread unrest and protests. The authorities responded with military-level force, resulting in the deaths of around 1,500 protesters.

Experts have proposed more rationality in budget planning and the gradual elimination of subsidies, but the system is running on its own inertia, unable to make the necessary reforms.

Ultimately, Iran’s foreign policy and its controversial nuclear program, which have triggered crippling international sanctions, have further destabilized the already struggling state-controlled economy. The most immediate threat is the rapidly falling currency, leading to swift inflationary pressures and potential political instability.

The executions, which occurred in various prisons across the country, took place between 1 October and 17 October 2024.

Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) said on Thursday that two men on death row for murder, identified as Abbas Karimi and Mohammad Ali Najafi, were executed in Isfahan Central Prison. Karimi had been granted an extension to raise the blood money for his case, but his family was unable to meet the deadline.

Blood money is an Islamic practice by which an alleged offender or their family can compensate an aggrieved party or relatives.

“The Islamic Republic promotes violence, cruelty and discrimination in society through inhuman retribution laws. Abbas Karimi was executed due to his inability to pay blood money,” IHR Director, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam said in a statement condemning the executions.

IHR said it had recorded 92 executions in the first 17 days of October.

Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA) reported that two prisoners who had been previously sentenced to death on drug-related charges were executed in Qazvin Prison on Thursday.

Two prisoners, including a woman in Hamedan Prison, were executed on drug-related charges on Wednesday, HRNA further reported. The man was identified as Rasoul Feili, while the woman’s identity was not disclosed.

IHR also reported that another prisoner named Mohsen Mokhtari was executed in Adelabad prison in Shiraz on murder charges.

Six prisoners on death row for murder charges were executed in the same prison last Sunday, the US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran reported.

Amnesty International on Friday warned that Iran plans to execute Mohammad Reza Azizi on Monday, 21 October. Azizi was just 17 when he was arrested and sentenced to death. Amnesty called on Iranian authorities to halt the execution, stating that Iran is violating international law by sentencing a minor to death.

Iran conducted the most executions of any country in the world after China last year, Amnesty said in a report in May, adding that nearly 75% of all executions worldwide in 2023 outside China were in Iran.

The recent wave of executions brings the total number of hangings in Iran this year to more than 567, including 20 women, according to rights groups.

Earlier this month, HRNA reported that at least 811 people had been executed in Iran between 10 October 2023 and 8 October 2024, coinciding with the annual World Day Against the Death Penalty.

In an interview with Le Figaro on Thursday, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf indicated Iran's openness to talks with France regarding UN Resolution 1701, which focuses on reducing tensions with Israel after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Mikati asserted that the responsibility for negotiating the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 rests solely with the Lebanese state.

"We are surprised by this position, which constitutes a blatant interference in Lebanese affairs and an attempt to establish a rejected guardianship over Lebanon," a government statement quoted Mikati as saying.

Later, the Iranian news agency ISNA, quoting an unnamed source close to Ghalibaf, denied the statements attributed to him. The source said that Ghalibaf had emphasized: “Whatever the Lebanese government and resistance agree upon regarding a ceasefire, Iran will also endorse.”

Adopted in 2006, Resolution 1701 mandates that the southern border region of Lebanon remain free from the presence of weapons or military forces, except for those under the authority of the Lebanese state.

However, Israel contends that both the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping mission known as UNIFIL have failed to adequately secure the region. Hezbollah has been engaged in a series of cross-border exchanges with Israel along the southern Lebanese frontier for nearly a year, beginning on October 8, when it initiated attacks in support of Hamas during Israel's military campaign in Gaza. In response, Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon on October 1, following nearly a year of escalating hostilities.

Mikati has previously indicated his intention to take matters into his own hands regarding Hezbollah and Iran. Last year, he repeatedly highlighted his efforts to keep Lebanon out of the conflict, while acknowledging the limits of his government's authority. In a statement made in October 2023, he openly admitted, "The decision regarding war and peace is not in my hands or in the hands of the government."

Mikati’s remarks sparked widespread outrage in Lebanon, highlighting criticism of the government’s diminishing control.

In an interview with Al Jadeed last year, Mikati reaffirmed Lebanon's commitment to Resolution 1701, stressing his efforts to prevent the country from being dragged into a war with Israel amid the Gaza escalation.

He stated: "I am fully fulfilling my duty in this regard, and various countries are cooperating to establish stability and peace in Lebanon. My efforts are focused on this goal. I had a week full of communications with numerous heads of state and world leaders, and there was a shared understanding that we, as a government, are working with all relevant parties to keep Lebanon out of any war."