As the Iranian state is determined to display its strength in the Middle East, not least by confronting Israel through its various proxies – it ultimately faces mounting challenges in sustaining its authority within its own borders.
Neither its reported logistical support for the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, the attacks by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea, nor the launch of six thousand rockets by Hezbollah towards Israel from October 8th, 2023, can obscure this reality.
In 2024, serious questions have arisen regarding the government's authority, which is typically demonstrated through organizing government-sponsored gatherings, ensuring insider cohesion and cooperation, maintaining essential public services, and supporting internal forces.
The state’s waning influence to mobilize
On July 26, the state attempted to stage a celebration of the mandated Islamic hijab in Tehran’s Azadi Stadium, which has a capacity of one hundred thousand. Despite extensive promotion through government propaganda outlets and the provision of free entry, transportation, and amenities for attendees, over 70% of the seats remained empty. This event not only highlighted a significant lack of public interest but also exposed the government's diminishing power to politically mobilize and demonstrate popular support for its policies.
Following that, the Muharram mourning ceremony, which commemorates the martyrdom of the Islamic Imam Hussein, was notably uneventful this year despite being primarily funded by municipalities. Previously a ten-day event, it was reduced to just two days, with fewer mourning tents in populous neighborhoods and a significant drop in attendance.
Overall, the state’s heavy-handed enforcement of Islamic practices and suppression of the population have had a counterproductive effect. Mosques across Iran have become less frequented and have lost their sense of community connection. The latest official numbers indicate that at least two-thirds of the country's mosques (50,000 out of 75,000) have been closed, and the number of worshippers has significantly diminished.
A fractured executive branch
The administration of President Ebrahim Raisi had such a seemingly indefensible track record that, after his sudden death in a helicopter crash, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his appointees in the Guardian Council allowed former Health Minister Masoud Pezeshkian and the “reformists” supporting him to enter the executive branch.
Despite the mistrust Khamenei almost certainly harbors for the “reformist” camp, he likely felt he had no choice but to turn back to them. He gave them enough room to campaign and reassured them with favorable statistics to encourage their participation in the executive branch.
This development unfolded while the chief editor of Kayhan, a newspaper under Khamenei’s direct management, described Pezeshkian’s colleagues in charge of selecting cabinet members as follows: "Most of the members of the Steering Council and its sub-committees are those who, in their records, are associated with the enemy's intelligence services, have security convictions, corruption, defense of homosexuality, disbelief in the system and revolution, alignment and association with the American, British and Israeli triangle, have been involved in seditions and riots, secretly meeting with the enemies of Iran in America and receiving instructions to create sedition in the country, [and] asking America to apply crippling sanctions against Islamic Iran.”
In his desperation to avoid another largely unpopular presidency, Khamenei has caused his once-unified executive branch to visibly fracture.
Infrastructure failures fuel growing discontent
The government’s failure to invest in and maintain infrastructure, coupled with inadequate public services, has heightened the risk of public protests. Issues such as power, water, and gas outages, along with potential increases in gasoline prices, have fueled growing discontent.
The number of power outages in the country, exceeding 50 per month, has now reached levels seen in failed and weak states such as Yemen and Niger.
According to Pezeshkian, gasoline imports have reached approximately $8 billion annually, a cost the government cannot sustain long-term without raising prices. Such increases could lead to public unrest similar to the November 2019 protests, where demonstrations over hiked fuel prices quickly turned into calls for regime change.
Rifts deepen in Khamenei’s top circles
In addition to other internal rifts, there have been notable internal conflicts within the top circles around the Supreme Leader.
One example of the internal tensions within Khamenei's inner circle is the July 8 edition of Jam Jam Daily. This newspaper, published by the state-owned TV and Radio Organization directly managed by the Leader, used Photoshop to remove Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf—heads of the judiciary and legislative branches—from a photo of Pezeshkian’s approval ceremony in Khamenei's office.
Additionally, the support for Pezeshkian from several of Khamenei's close associates, such as his bodyguard Vahid Haqqanian, along with the early resignation of numerous IRGC members, signals a growing distance between the original leaders of the Islamic Republic and the regime's more hardline elements.
These events come at a time of rising fears of a full-scale regional war, with escalating tensions between Israel and Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. This escalation coincides with a coordinated and forceful American move in Iraq.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, one of Hamas' most prominent leaders, in Tehran was the most spectacular of such attacks. Haniyeh, who was leading the political operations of the movement while living abroad, was the second leader of an Iran-backed armed group to be killed in less than 24 hours.
Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the attack after Haniyeh attended the inauguration of the new Iranian president. The assassination comes at a critical time, coinciding with escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and rising fears of a wider regional war.
In the same context, Israel carried out an attack in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, on Tuesday resulting in the death of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military commander, accused of carrying out a deadly attack in the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.
The Israeli retaliation against Fuad Shukr, the second-in-command in Hezbollah and one of Hassan Nasrallah's top advisors, known as “Hajj Mohsen,” eliminated a prominent military figure in Hezbollah, with a $5 million bounty placed on him by Washington.
He was often described as the “Qasem Soleimani of Hezbollah” due to his significant role in planning and executing Hezbollah’s military operations, making his death a significant loss for the terror group.
The latest escalation is the most serious since the clashes between Hezbollah and Israel began last October following the outbreak of the Gaza war, sparked by the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of Israel. Hezbollah has since launched over 6,400 projectiles towards Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza.
Although Israel has not commented on Haniyeh’s death, it has previously called him “a dead man walking” and amid sensitive hostage negotiations, had to agree not to assassinate him in Doha, one of his foreign bases.
Haniyeh was the point contact for the negotiations moderated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to release 114 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza after Hamas took 250 or more captive on October 7. Questions now linger as to who will take his place.
The double assassination comes at a time when Israel faces multiple challenges on several fronts, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, Iran’s proxies acting in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.
By attacking Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel aims to send a direct and clear message to the Iranian regime, led by Ali Khamenei, indicating that Israel can reach its targets whenever and wherever it wants.
Israel’s decision, seen as a move to strengthen deterrence against the Tehran axis, also included targeting Ismail Haniyeh on the day of the new Iranian president's inauguration, a carefully timed move to deliver a precise political and security message.
Simultaneously and possibly not by coincidence, the United States carried out a defensive airstrike in Iraq this week on a base south of Baghdad which resulted in the death of four and injury of four members of the Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces.
While the Popular Mobilization Forces did not directly accuse anyone, the United States indicated that the strike targeted militants planning drone attacks threatening US and coalition forces. Since October 7, over 200 attacks by Iranian proxies have targeted US troops across the region with multiple deaths and scores of injuries.
A spokesman for the Iraqi armed forces condemned the attack, calling it an "atrocious crime" that could undermine joint efforts to combat ISIS. These developments come at a sensitive time for Iraq, which is experiencing increased reciprocal attacks between armed factions since the war between Israel and Hamas.
With 2,500 American troops in Iraq, the US-led coalition is expected to begin withdrawing in September, with some forces possibly remaining in an advisory capacity until 2025.
The recent assassinations of prominent leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah indicate a new Israeli strategy that relies on preemptive and direct strikes to enhance deterrence and send clear messages to Tehran and its allies. This escalation occurs amid broad geopolitical shifts, with both the United States and Israel aiming to reduce Iran's influence in the Middle East.
In Iraq, the American attack on Popular Mobilization Forces reflects growing tensions between Washington and Iran's proxies, showcasing US readiness to take strong measures against threats to its forces. These strikes come at a time when Iraq is experiencing political and security turmoil, further complicating the situation and placing the Iraqi government in a difficult position between maintaining its relationship with Washington and containing internal anger from Iran-backed armed factions.
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of a broader conflict, Iran's rhetoric has reached fever pitch, with top officials and media demanding revenge.
Five sources told Reuters that a high-level meeting has been scheduled in Tehran, drawing representatives from Iran's regional proxies. These include factions from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, signaling a united front under the "Axis of Resistance" banner.
Among the attendees will be figures from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi resistance groups, all gathering to deliberate on the nature and scale of the response to Haniyeh's killing.
According to the report, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior officials from the Revolutionary Guards are expected to lead the discussions.
"Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to find the best and most effective way to retaliate against the Zionist regime (Israel)," said a senior Iranian official, with direct knowledge of the meeting.
However, CNN reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent a message through Qatar asking the Islamic Republic not to retaliate for the assassination of Haniyeh.
According to the report, the United States has asked Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, to send messages to the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah, urging de-escalation and refraining from retaliatory actions.
The conflicting reports on the cause of Haniyeh's death have further fueled the charged atmosphere. The New York Times reported that Haniyeh was killed in a bomb explosion.
According to the report, the bomb was secretly brought into the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying almost two months earlier.
Other media outlets reported an airstrike on Haniyeh's residence. The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had written that Haniyeh was targeted with a "projectile from the air."
Amidst this confusion, Iran's leadership has not hesitated to voice its intent to retaliate. "The Zionist regime will undoubtedly regret it," stated General Mohammad Baqeri, Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, highlighting the Iran's determination to exact a reprisal. Bagheri also mentioned that Tehran is currently considering the appropriate response to avenge the assassination of Haniyeh.
The escalation comes on the heels of another Israeli strike, which targeted a senior Hezbollah commander near Beirut, killed just hours before Haniyeh. The dual assassinations have exacerbated fears of a broader conflict encompassing Israel, Iran, and their respective allies.
Israeli officials, meanwhile, have remained tight-lipped, neither confirming nor denying involvement in Haniyeh's assassination. However, Israeli air force chief Tomer Bar reiterated Israel's readiness to defend its citizens.
"We are also strongly prepared in defense. Hundreds of aerial defense soldiers, along with air control personnel, are stationed across the country with the best systems, ready to carry out their mission," said Bar.
The funeral for Haniyeh in Tehran on Thursday, attended by significant figures from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Iran-funded militant groups, further underscored the deep ties between Iran and its proxy forces.
Hamas's armed wing declared that the assassination of Haniyeh would "take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions."
An Iraqi militia local commander stated, "Iran asked key commanders of the Iraqi resistance groups to travel to Tehran on Wednesday to attend an urgent meeting to discuss retaliation against recent Israeli strikes, including in Lebanon and Iran and the US strike in Iraq." The US had intercepted an attack en-route to Israel.
Another source from the militia indicated that these commanders went to Tehran not only to attend Haniyeh's funeral but also to participate in a "top urgent meeting" aimed at planning the next steps for retaliating against Israel and the United States.
On Thursday, Iranian President Pezeshkian also reaffirmed support for Palestine. Pezeshkian conveyed to Hamas deputy chief in Gaza, Khalil Al-Hayya, that both his government and the leader of the Islamic Republic "will not waver in their support for Palestine."
He further emphasized, "We will continue to support and back the axis of resistance with even greater determination."
The "axis of resistance," a term coined by the Islamic Republic, refers to its coalition of proxy forces in the region. This coalition includes Palestinian militant groups, the Syrian regime, the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah, and various other factions.
Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, "All fronts of the resistance will take revenge for Haniyeh's blood."
Abdollah Ganji, the former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper, posted on X that the Islamic Republic has officially warned Arab countries in the region that if they allow Israel to use their airspace, they will become a "legitimate target."
Some media outlets attributed this warning to Ali Bagheri Kani, the acting foreign minister, who emphasized, "This action will undoubtedly take place. A range of measures must be implemented, and the Zionists will inevitably come to regret it."
On April 13, Iran launched over 350 missiles and drones toward Israel, claiming it was a response to Israel's alleged deadly strike on Iran's embassy compound in Damascus on April 1. However, almost all of the barrage was intercepted and shot down.
Former senior Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari told state TV that "Iran's response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh will be stronger than before."
At Haniyeh's funeral, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, emphasized the need for effective deterrence through proportionate actions. He remarked, "When a Hamas leader is martyred, one of the main leaders of Israel must be eliminated."
Iran's media landscape has also been vocal, with publications like Kayhan, which is closely aligned with the Supreme Leader, calling for a robust response. The newspaper suggested that Iran and its allies should consider striking American assets, implicating the United States as a complicit actor in the assassination due to its support for Israel.
"Now, with just a glance around, one can see dozens of strategic hubs and American intelligence and military centers that are easily within our reach. Ain al-Assad was one example. The base of the US Fifth Fleet on the shores of Bahrain is another example. American vessels carrying fuel and goods in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman could also be potential targets," added Kayhan.
Amid the developments, there are calls within Iran for a reassessment of security protocols. Criticism has surfaced regarding the apparent lapses that allowed such a high-profile assassination to occur on Iranian soil. Conservative voices like Jomhouri-e Eslami daily have demanded a thorough purge within the country's intelligence and security agencies to prevent future breaches and ensure accountability.