Iran is ripe for a revolution, exiled prince says

More than three weeks after the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the specifics of his economic plan remain unclear. His top officials are expected to be announced by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. However, it is already known that experienced economic manager Ali Tayyebnia has declined the position of presidential deputy.

Meanwhile, the battered Iranian currency, the rial, remains weak and faces the danger of another sudden fall against major currencies, which would exacerbate the annual inflation rate hovering above 40%.

Kamran Nadri, an Islamist economist, has warned the government to be careful about injecting dollars into the market to support the rial. He has expressed his agreement with remarks by former central bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati who warned in recent days that dollar injections have failed to strengthen the rial, currently trading at 590,000 per one US dollar.

After Pezeshkian’s election, the rial showed some signs of improvement, but now it appears that the temporary reprieve was due to government intervention in the currency markets.

Nadri maintained that the government’s oil revenues have improved since 2021, either because of lax sanctions enforcement by the Biden administration or Tehran’s efforts to boost shipments to China. As a result, the government’s currency reserves are stronger, but that is not a reason for hasty interventions to support the rial.

Iran’s daily oil exports were around 250,000 barrels per day after the Trump administration imposed full oil sanction in 2019, but as soon as the President Joe Biden assumed office, the volume increased. In recent months, Iran has been exporting around 1.5 million barrels daily, mostly to China, using illicit methods to hide the shipments.

Nadri, who is an expert in ‘Islamic banking’ warned, "Given the increasing likelihood of Trump's presidency in the United States, we must proceed more cautiously. This means we should anticipate potential issues with oil sales and avoid using all of our current foreign exchange reserves."

Pezeshkian has released a brief outline of his economic objectives, where he acknowledges the serious impact of sanctions, stating that with current budgetary restrictions it would not be possible to alleviate the hardship people endure. Even if an agreement with the United States is reached soon, it will take about two years for its positive economic impact to become noticeable, Pezeshkian’s plan stated. Therefore, Pezeshkian believes that the government should rely on controlling expenditures in the first two years of his presidency.

One of the main areas of budgetary outlays is expenditures on the nuclear program, the military and Iran’s proxy forces throughout the Middle East. However, these are Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s red lines. Pezeshkian has already shown his readiness to continue support for the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah, while the Houthis in Yemen are engaged in daily conflict with Western navies in the Red Sea. As a result, Iran must equip and pay tens of thousands of militias in at least five countries, including Syria and Iraq. Essential domestic expenditures have already been cut to the bone, with around 30 million people having descended below the poverty line.

The only remaining savings can come from reducing energy subsidies, which means increasing prices for gas, electricity and gasoline. This is what most experts expect Pezeshkian’s administration to do, risking protests and upheavals, like what took place in November 2019, when gasoline prices were raised and nationwide protests broke out, killing 1,500 civilians.

The president’s plan also mentions cutting the volume of dollars provided at lower rates to importers, a scheme that is a cesspool of corruption. But imports with more expensive dollars means higher consumer prices, something the Islamic government has tried to avoid not to risk a backlash by the population.

Pezeshkian also acknowledged in his brief draft economic plan that the country’s government-controlled banks are in deep trouble with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of uncollectible loans, mostly to inefficient government enterprises and individuals with strong political connections. However, this would necessitate major reforms in both the political and economic systems, a tall order for a president who has vowed not to introduce big initiatives.

Twelve kids and teenagers were killed in the rocket attack on a soccer pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli military has vowed to retaliate against Hezbollah, which both Israel and the US blame for the strike.

In a Monday phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Masoud Pezeshkian asserted that Israel’s plans to retaliate “could backfire and have severe consequences for the Zionists themselves.”

In turn, Macron said Iran had "a role to play to avoid escalation in the Lebanon-Israel tension by halting support to destabilizing players," according to the French presidency's readout of the phone call.

While Hezbollah have denied any role, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Saturday the rocket used in the deadly attack was an Iranian-made Falaq-1 fired by Hezbollah. Hagari described it as the "most serious targeting" of Israeli civilians since the October 7 attack on Israel by Iran-funded Hamas.

The Biden administration on Monday maintained that Israel “has a right to respond” to the attack, but believed fears the attack could lead to a broader war were “exaggerated.”

Asked about fears of a broader conflict in the region, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby responded that at “multiple points over the last 10 months, those predictions were exaggerated,” he added “Quite frankly we think they’re exaggerated now.”

Still, several airlines, including Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines, Aegean Airlines, Ethiopian Air, and Middle East Airlines, have canceled flights to Beirut for July 29-30, anticipating an Israeli response to the Hezbollah attack.

Several countries, including the US, UK, and France, also issued urgent travel advisories on Sunday, urging their citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon or to leave the country immediately.

Several observers have criticized the narrative that Israel’s response should be restrained due to fears of an all-out regional conflict.

Senior advisor at the FDD think-tank, Richard Goldberg, stated on X, “Iran has been waging a multi-front regional war for more than 9 months. Pressuring Israel to accept every escalation by Iran’s terror axis as a new normal brought us to this moment.”

“The ‘regional war’ talking point is gibberish. Israel is being attacked from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. Who else is going to join in? Biden-Harris officials use the line all the time but no one asks ‘uhhh what other country will this expand to?’," an adviser to US Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Omri Ceren wrote. 

As Lebanon braces for retaliation, two Israeli officials told Reuters that the country has no intention to drag the Middle East into an all-out war. Two other Israeli officials told the outlet that the country was preparing for the possibility of a few days of fighting.

According to security sources, Hezbollah has preemptively evacuated several key sites in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a potential attack by Israel.

This follows comments by Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, who stated on Israeli television on Saturday, “We are approaching the moment of an all-out war against Hezbollah,” and added, “The response to this event will be accordingly.”After an emergency session since the attack, the Israeli security cabinet has empowered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister to determine the timing and manner of retaliation.

While the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group has denied responsibility for the strike, Germany and the US have joined Israel in unequivocally blaming Hezbollah for it.

“This attack was conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah. It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control,” a statement by White House NSC Spokesperson Adrienne Watson read.

Israel maintains that the attack was carried out with the Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket with a 100-pound warhead and that only Hezbollah holds such rockets in Lebanon.

Iran appeared to deny playing a role in the attack, when it issued a vague statement by a foreign ministry spokesperson.

Germany on Monday called on all parties to the Middle East conflict, in particular Iran, to prevent an escalation.

A Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Berlin "assumes with certainty" that the attack was conducted by Hezbollah, additionally highlighting that recent actions by the Iran-supported Houthi militia in Yemen have also significantly contributed to regional instability.

The hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, largely triggered by the war in Gaza, are their worst since the 2006 conflict.

Hezbollah, an ally of the Palestinian terror group Hamas, has vowed that its rocket and drone attacks on Israel will continue until Israel's offensive on Gaza ceases. The conflict at the Israel-Lebanon border has forced tens of thousands of people to leave their homes on both sides.

This report highlights several cases, shedding light on the brutal reality faced by those caught in the grip of Iran's repressive tactics. The accounts reveal a systematic practice aimed at extracting forced confessions and instilling terror among detainees.

Victims, including political prisoners and protesters, recount harrowing experiences of being taken to the gallows, subjected to simulated shootings, or blindfolded with the belief they would be hanged, enduring profound psychological and physical torment.

In 2018, Abolfazl Chezani Sharahi, a juvenile offender charged with murder at the age of 14, was subjected to solitary confinement and endured the psychological torment of mock executions on four separate occasions. Ultimately, at the age of 19, he faced execution.

Iran remains one of the few countries that administer the death penalty for crimes committed during adolescence.

This is while updates to the country's Islamic Penal Code in 2013 allow judges to consider the mental capacity and maturity of young offenders when they are tried for crimes that warrant capital punishment for adults. Furthermore, in 2014, Iran’s Supreme Court ruled that all juvenile offenders on death row could apply for a retrial.

Additionally, Iran ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child decades ago, which explicitly bans the execution of juvenile offenders.

Yalda Dehghani, a 25-year-old activist, was arrested in 2023 and subjected to mock executions with a handgun twice within an hour at the Rasht Intelligence Office in northern Iran.

This former political prisoner recounted to Iran International, "At the Intelligence Office, a sergeant grabbed me by my hair and dragged me across the floor to a small courtyard. He held me against the wall, turned on his phone's flashlight, pointed it at me, and said, 'I want to film you and hand over your body to your family. Say anything you think will ease their pain.' When I heard the gunshot, my face was against the wall, and I felt the blood spreading from the point of the bullet's impact on my body. I thought, my body is warm now, and it might take a few minutes for the pain to register."

She said it took her more than a minute to realize that the handgun was not loaded.

According to this former political prisoner, two hours later, they took her back to the small courtyard and threatened to kill her if she did not confess against herself and her friends.

Dehghani noted that it was close to dawn, and the officers were waiting for the call to prayer to finish so they could carry out her execution. She said, "This time, they placed the gun above my head, pressed it, and threatened me. With each press, I fell to the ground. I thought to myself, this time, they are waiting for the call to prayer; they will surely kill me. Suddenly, I heard the sound of the magazine. This time, I fell unconscious to the ground. I thought I was dead, but a few minutes later, I regained consciousness in the detention center."

Dehghani told Iran International that she was sexually assaulted several times by a sergeant in the Rasht police detention center.

Ashkan Soleimani, a former political prisoner who was arrested during the 2022 protests, was subjected to mock executions by the authorities twice. Once with a handgun in the courtyard of the Rasht Intelligence Office and another time with a noose in Lakan Prison in the same city.

In an interview with Iran International, Soleimani recounted the night he was subjected to a mock execution with a handgun: "The commander of the forces that arrested me placed the muzzle of the handgun on my body and said, 'We will execute you here, and no one will know.'"

Soleimani mentioned that upon entering the political prisoners' ward in Lakan Prison, he heard numerous accounts from inmates about mock executions with a handgun. He told Iran International, "Prisoners were coerced into making forced confessions against themselves and their associates on the very first night of their arrest using this method."

One week before his mock execution with a noose, this political prisoner was transferred to solitary confinement in Lakan Prison.

He said, "On Saturday, they took me to solitary confinement and told me I would be executed on Thursday. I did everything I could to end my life. I even tried to cut my throat with the pen they had given me to write my will."

Soleimani recounted that on the night before his mock execution, a cleric was sent to his cell to read the Quran and talk about the afterlife.

He said, "They removed the blindfold, and someone started reciting the Quran. Suddenly, they placed the noose around my neck. Two people, one on my left and one on my right, shook the stool for 15 to 20 seconds. After a sudden jolt, they lifted my feet off the ground and said, 'The execution has been postponed.'"

Khaled Pirzadeh, a former bodybuilding champion and political prisoner arrested for his activism, told London’s Kayhan in January 2024 while he was on medical leave that he had been taken to the gallows twice, experiencing what he described as "terror sentences."“They put the noose around my neck twice. The terror of the death sentence. They did not show me any mercy out of their spite and tortured me to the brink of death. They would place my hands between the interrogation room's metal door and slam it shut,” Pirzadeh described his tortures.

Saman Seydi, a 26-year-old Iranian rap artist known as Saman Yasin, who was arrested during the anti-establishment protests in October 2022 and sentenced to death, endured the psychological torment of mock executions on two separate occasions.

Ahmad Haeri, a political prisoner and Yasin’s cellmate, recounted Yasin’s harrowing experiences in a letter from prison obtained by Iran International. Haeri quoted Yasin’s chilling words about the mock executions:

"I felt the burning of the rope around my neck. The blood that seemed frozen in my body suddenly boiled, and I shouted and cursed at them, 'End it quickly...'"

"I was waiting every moment for the ground to give way beneath me and, thanks to the tied rope, for my neck to break and it all to end."

After learning that his execution was postponed, Yasin said, "It felt as if my legs had been cut off and I had been thrown to the ground."

Another account pertains to Iranian Kurdish political prisoner Pakhshan Azizi, whose recently announced death sentence has garnered significant attention.

The Hengaw Human Rights Organization, a Kurdish advocacy group, reported that Azizi published a letter detailing her repeated torture and mock hangings during detention.

"The interrogators have repeatedly hung me." She emphasized in the letter, "We may be insignificant to the central authority, but we receive the heaviest and most severe sentences."

The father of jailed Iranian protester Sahand Noor Mohammadzadeh, who was arrested outside his home in Tehran during the protests in October 2022 and subsequently sentenced to death two months later for allegedly attempting to break a highway guardrail and setting fire to a dustbin, disclosed that his son endured three mock executions.

A source close to Mohsen Ghiasi, who was arrested during the 2019 protests in Iran, told Iran Interntioainl about his mock executions.“Mohsen endured severe beatings and was instructed to write his will.” The source continued, “In the prison yard, a noose was placed around his neck. In his final moments, with his entire body trembling, he declared, ‘End it quickly.’ As Mohsen closed his eyes and awaited his death, he was informed that his execution had been postponed”.

Amnesty International reported in April that 853 people were executed in Iran in 2023, marking a record number in the past eight years. The organization highlighted that the government employs executions as a tool of political repression and warned that thousands more may face the same fate if the international community fails to intervene. According to the rights group Hengaw, at least 266 prisoners were executed across Iran in the first half of 2024, as the country's execution spree persists.

In a recent audio statement, she said, "The lives of thousands in the Islamic Republic are threatened by terms like 'moharebeh' (waging war against God) and 'ifsad fil-arz' (corruption on earth), which are irrelevant in today's world."

Vasmaghi, who was released from Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison in April, described how the Iranian judiciary exploits vague charges to suppress dissent and protect the government’s interests.

"Thousands have been executed or sentenced to death under the guise of implementing Shia jurisprudence and Islamic law. However, the current usage of these terms and the practices of the Islamic Republic have no historical basis in Islam," she noted.

Amnesty International reported in April that 853 people were executed in Iran in 2023, marking a record high in the last eight years.

She further criticized the Iranian judiciary's exploitation of vague charges like “propaganda against the system” and “gathering and conspiring against national security”, used to suppress dissent and protect the government's interests.

After being imprisoned in Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison, Vasmaghi's health severely deteriorated, resulting in her release. She lost her sight and suffered life-threatening heart issues due to the harsh conditions of her imprisonment.

Her arrest in March was for criticizing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whom she labeled a dictator, and for condemning the compulsory hijab laws.

Before her release, Vasmaghi wrote to the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission and international human rights organizations detailing the personal abuses and systemic oppression she faced in Iran, particularly targeting women.

In her appeal, Vasmaghi stressed the need to liberate Iranian women from oppressive hijab laws, stating that religious women are not required to cover their hair under Islamic Sharia according to her research.

"Many Iranian women have opposed the mandatory hijab law for decades," she noted, adding that she had removed her headscarf in protest against the oppression of women.

The mandatory hijab has been a focal point in the Women, Life, Freedom movement, which gained momentum after the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police in 2022.

Vasmaghi’s arrest on March 16 occurred while attending the funeral of 16-year-old Armita Geravand, also killed by hijab-enforcement agents in Tehran.

Pezeshkian announced the appointment shortly after his endorsement by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at a ceremony on Sunday. The appointment came as a surprise to many who expected economist Ali Tayebnia’s appointment as VP.

Tayebnia, who played a prominent role in Pezeshkian’s campaign, welcomed Aref’s appointment and stressed that he was not ready to assume the position “for personal reasons”. Given the serious economic situation Iran faces, many expected that the experienced economist would play a pivotal role in the new administration.

Critics say Aref’s appointment is against the promises made by Mohammad-Javad Zarif who Pezeshkian appointed as the head of a “Strategic Council” to vet candidates for cabinet positions. Zarif had stressed that the complex procedure used by the Council’s various committees would ensure a younger and more diverse cabinet.

“It was expected that to fulfill his promises the honorable President would present an agile and energetic person from among those [politically] aligned with him. Appointing Aref, who is three years older than Pezeshkian, despite his [good] personality, does not convey a good message. Hopefully, a young and motivated cabinet will be presented,” former lawmaker Hamid Rasaei, a hardliner, tweeted.

“By choosing Aref, Pezeshkian showed that not only he doesn’t care about [the views of the establishment’s] critics and protesters, but is even indifferent to the opinion of those who voted for him,” reformist Shargh daily’s Hoda Hashemi who called Aref “the most passive political figure” during the crises of the past few years posted on X.

“The mountain gave birth to a mouse,” Reza Khanaki, an entrepreneur strongly critical of the new president, tweeted, drawing on an old Persian proverb. “The outcome of [all the talk about] giving priority to the younger generation, employing new people, …, and listening to people was the appointment of Aref as VP.”

“I have the feeling that Khamenei recommended Aref’s [appointment] as vice president but Pezeshkian tried to hide this by inviting Khatami to the presidential office and public announcement of the meeting,” expatriate dissident journalist and politician Mojtaba Vahedi speculated in a tweet. Former President Mohammad Khatami visited Pezeshkian Friday night, ahead of the news about Aref's appointment.

Vahedi contends that Pezeshkian’s ascendance to the presidency was according to Khamenei’s plan and was meant to “complete his dictatorship and reveal the formality of all government forces including the parliament.”

'Reformist' politicians and media have generally welcomed Aref’s appointment.

Speaking to Khabar Online news website, 'reformist' politician and former Mayor of Tehran Gholamhossein Karbaschi welcomed Pezeshkian’s choice. He argued that Aref’s experience as vice president, his seniority in relation to other cabinet members, and his good relations with both reformists and conservatives make him a good choice for the position.

Unlike in the case of cabinet ministers, Pezeshkian who will be officially inaugurated at the Parliament on Tuesday does not need the Parliament’s approval to appoint his VP and deputies.

Pezeshkian is expected to present his cabinet to the Parliament after his inauguration or later this week for a vote of confidence.

He stressed on Friday that he would discuss his nominees with Khamenei for “final consultation and coordination...total understanding and agreement” when the list of proposed cabinet members is completed.

Zarif said Saturday that at least eight candidates were proposed to the President for most ministerial positions and that investigation of candidates for presidential deputies had not begun yet.

Pezeshkian’s predecessors were also required to discuss their candidates for ministerial positions with Khamenei and get his approval, particularly for several ‘sensitive positions’ including the ministries of intelligence, foreign affairs, Islamic guidance, defense, and interior, before the cabinet was presented to the Parliament.

Pezeshkian is the first Iranian president to inform the public of such a step in the formation of the cabinet. His supporters praise him for being transparent but some among the opposition are accusing him of trying to cast the blame for the possible shortcomings of his government on Khamenei in the future by highlighting his involvement in the selection process.

“Apparently, the shortcomings of Pezeshkian’s government are to be protected from criticism and protest by hiding behind the Supreme Leader,” one of the supporters of the ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili alleged in a tweet.