Outgoing UN rapporteur urges int'l probe into 1980s atrocities in Iran

Over the weekend, Malaysia's coast guard said it had located and intercepted Ceres I, which had collided with another vessel off Singapore, causing a fire and injuring at least two crew members. The Sao Tome and Principe-flagged supertanker was also believed to have turned off its tracking system, the coast guard said.

Despite its connection to smuggling, oil analytics firm Vortexa said that at the time of the collision, the Ceres I tanker was in ballast, indicating it was not carrying any cargo.The Iranian government also stated about a day after the collision that neither vessel had been carrying any Iranian oil at the time.

The Ceres I, a large crude-carrying supertanker with a capacity to hold 2 million barrels, controlled by China, has previously transported millions of barrels of Iranian oil.

Claire Jungman, Chief of Staff at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and a specialist in monitoring suspicious oil tankers, said that since 2019, the tanker has transported at least 8 million barrels of Iranian oil and, since 2021, an additional 7.5 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.

Experts have also noted that the area where the vessel had been anchored is known to be used by so-called dark fleet ships for the illicit transfer of Iranian oil in contravention of US sanctions.

Singapore, a crucial hub for oil trading and bunkering, oversees waters essential to global trade routes linking Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.Despite international sanctions, Iran continues to export large volumes of oil, primarily through the waters of Malaysia and Singapore using illicit ship-to-ship transfers, with China being a major recipient.

The collision occurred approximately 55 km northeast of Pedra Branca, an island on the eastern approach to the Singapore Straits, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA).

In 2023, Iran shipped 670,000 barrels of oil per day to Malaysian waters, destined for Chinese refineries, according to Kpler, a leading trade intelligence firm. This volume increased to 800,000 b/d in 2024, representing over half of Iran’s total oil exports to China.

Crude oil imports from Malaysia to China surged to over 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) last year, a sixfold increase compared to pre-sanction levels in 2018, according to Chinese customs data.

Iran’s ‘dark fleet’

Experts say the particular vessel has a practice of turning off its tracking transponder to evade sanctions.

"The Ceres I has been a boat that has gone dark many times over the years," Matt Stanley, head of market engagement for Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific regions at Kpler, said.

Stanley stated that the vessel's last Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal, transmitted around March, indicated it was carrying Iranian crude oil – which the US has sought to restrict by imposing sanctions on the involved ports, vessels, and refineries.

The insurance coverage for the Ceres I remains uncertain, as none of the major international P&I clubs, which collectively insure a significant portion of global maritime tonnage, provide coverage for the vessel.

Jungman estimated that around 400 foreign tankers have been involved in illegal Iranian oil shipments since the US imposed sanctions in 2018, resulting in substantial revenue losses for Iran from its oil exports. This revenue loss encompasses costs related to middlemen, clandestine operations, and discounts offered to Chinese refineries.

Referred to as "ghost ships" or "dark fleets," these vessels disguise their ownership and movements to facilitate breaches of sanctions. They engage in the risky practice of ship-to-ship transfers in the open ocean and turn off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to obscure their identity. According to German insurer Allianz, these vessels have been involved in at least 50 incidents to date, including fires, engine failures, collisions, loss of steerage, and oil spills.

As a result of assistance from ghost ships, Iran's oil exports rose by about 30% to approximately 1.6 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to statistics from Kpler and Vortexa.

However, despite these efforts to circumvent sanctions, Iran lost more than one-fifth of its oil revenues in 2023, amounting to up to $6 billion, as calculated by Iran International.

The vessel had loaded marine gas oil off the coast of Iraq and was destined for UAE's Sharjah when it was intercepted on Sunday 61 nautical miles southwest of Iran's port of Bushehr, Ambrey said.

Ambrey added that the incident is unlikely to be politically motivated and is not assessed as a 'war' event.

The interception was likely a counter-smuggling operation by the IRGC, as the vessel's "trading behavior was consistent with previous IRGC target profile", Ambrey said.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Navy confirmed seizure of the tanker in a statement quoted by Iran's state news agency, saying "the tanker was systematically engaged in fuel smuggling ... and was seized in the depths of Bushehr's coast by judicial order."

"The Betelgeuse vessel, along with its 12 crew members of Indian and Sri Lankan nationality, has been transferred to Bushehr anchorage and is under supervision," the agency quoted the statement as saying.

Iran, which has some of the world's cheapest fuel prices due to heavy subsidies and the plunge in the value of its currency, has been fighting rampant fuel smuggling by land to neighboring countries and by sea to Persian Gulf Arab states.

No further information was provided regarding the fate of the vessel.

(Reporting by Reuters)

Iran Nuclear Deal

Experts and observers have suggested that the growing threat of "weaponization" of Iran's nuclear program could be a key challenge early on for a potential Harris administration—particularly if Tehran decides to test the new US president.

With respect to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), Harris is widely expected to closely follow Biden's foreign policy strategy.

When US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Harris called the decision both "reckless" and that it jeopardized national security.

While acknowledging that the nuclear deal is not perfect, then-California Senator Harris asserted that it was the best available tool for the US to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and to avoid military conflict in the Middle East.

When she was running for the presidency over a year later, in August 2019, Harris said that if elected, she "would plan to rejoin the JCPOA, so long as Iran also returned to verifiable compliance."

Harris has also frequently highlighted what she sees as the Obama-Biden administration's success in pushing the agreement with Iran through.

“Joe Biden actually took historic steps as Vice President to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Obama-Biden administration imposed what were described as crippling multilateral sanctions which brought Iran to negotiations, paving the way for the JCPOA and preventing a nuclear-armed Iran,” she said in 2020.

Tougher stances on Israel

While Harris is there is little doubt that she would maintain Washington's longstanding commitment to Israel’s security, it is not entirely clear whether her rhetoric will match -- should she become the 47th President.

As far back as 2016, Harris insisted that lasting peace could only take place if the Palestinians not only uphold their recognition and security guarantees to Israel, but explicitly recognize Israel as “Jewish state.”

She has shown her support of a two-state solution, and now some experts argue that her narrative and tone may shift to be outwardly more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians and Palestinian statehood.

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator, notes that Harris could adopt a more sympathetic tone towards Palestinian issues, although her policy actions are unlikely to deviate significantly from Biden's.

“When it comes to Israel, she has very moderate views," Miller told Reuters. "To the left of what Biden is prepared to do but way to the right of those who argue we need to impose costs and consequences on Israel to make it clear we’re the superpower and they’re not.”

Human rights and support for Iranian protestors

Regarding the Iranian state's human rights violations, particularly in response to the 2022 protests, Harris condemned the authorities' crackdowns.

"The United States continues to stand with the brave women of Iran as they protest peacefully for their fundamental rights and basic human dignity. All people in Iran must have the right to freedom of expression and assembly, and Iran must end its use of violence against its own citizens simply for exercising their fundamental freedoms," she said in a statement in 2022.

She also called for the removal of Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women and condemned the violent crackdown on protestors after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini over the mandatory hijab.

“Iran has demonstrated through its denial of women’s rights and brutal crackdown on its own people that it is unfit to serve on this Commission; Iran’s very presence discredits the integrity of its membership and the work to advance its mandate,” she stated in November 2022.

Regional stability and security

On regional security, Harris has shown a willingness to take a firm stance against Iran’s destabilizing activities, but her stance aligns with her party's policies without showing significant independent views.

In 2020, Harris criticized Trump for the assassination of Iranian Commander Qassem Soleimani, who headed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force.

She appeared to advocate for a more cautious approach when dealing with the IRGC’s proxies in the Middle East, stating in a post on X that "Soleimani was an enemy of the US, but President Trump's actions put more American lives at risk and could lead to a new war in the Middle East.”

During periods of heightened tension, she issued direct warnings to Iran, repeating Biden’s rhetoric. In a message, she issued a one-word warning to Iran regarding its potential involvement in the Israel-Gaza conflict: "Don’t," echoing Biden's earlier statement.

While Harris has garnered endorsements from notable figures, her official nomination won't occur until the Democratic National Convention in August. Meanwhile, key leaders such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama have yet to publicly endorse her.

The controversial cleric was little known to many ordinary Iranians before Jalili’s defeat in the elections. Since then, he and his views have come to be extensively condemned by opponents, or defended by followers who claim he is being ‘vilified’.

Mirbagheri is largely seen as the successor of the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, the spiritual father of Iran's ultraconservatives, whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held in very high esteem.

A mid-ranking cleric who has never held any government position, Mirbagheri has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 2016. He also sits at the helm of the Academy of Islamic Sciences of Qom which defines its mission as the development and promotion of “Islamic sciences”.

As a member of the Assembly, Mirbagheri contends that the Assembly’s role must be “supporting” the Supreme Leader, not “supervising” him as the Constitution dictates. He has always strongly supported Khamenei as the absolute authority and the Supreme Islamic Jurist (Vali-ye Faghih).

Mirbagheri teaches that fighting “infidels” and overcoming them is a prerequisite for the “emergence” of the hidden Imam, Mahdi, who the Shiittes believe has been in occultation by divine for centuries.

Using an analogy with early Islamic history, Mirbagheri also argues that the legitimacy of the Islamic ruler does not depend on the votes of the people who may choose the authority of the wrong person. Critics say this is in contradiction with the views of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, who famously said that “people’s votes are the true measure.”

In a speech to commemorate the late President Ebrahim Raisi last week, Mirbagheri quoted Khomeini, as saying decades ago that the establishment of a “new culture based on Islam in the world” would entail “hardship, martyrdom, and hunger” and that Iranian people had “voluntarily chosen” to take that path.

“Our people are prepared to move towards [such] ideals,” he said in his speech in which he also accused those in favor of negotiation with the West of seeking to “integrate” Iran in the current world order and weaken it like Japan and Germany” by “accepting disarmament”.

Mirbagheri supported Jalili in the 2013 presidential elections and Ebrahim Raisi in 2017 against moderate Hassan Rouhani. He also supported the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but turned his back on him when he fell from Khamenei’s favor in 2011.

Between these two elections, he did not present a politically active image but has become very vocal in the past eighteen months and active on social media.

Mirbagheri’s views about the “world order” are similar to those of Alexander Dugin, the Russian ultranationalist philosopher, who has regularly been invited to visit Iran in recent years and met with Mirbagheri and other hardliners in Qom, the bastion of ultra-hardliners.

Opponents highlight Mirbagheri’s extreme views about women’s education “in the Western style”, hijab, social freedoms, his refutation of “Western sciences” as well as his advocacy of the “clash of civilizations”.

An article Wednesday by Mehrdad Khadir, deputy editor of the reformist Ham Mihan newspaper, suggested that Jalili’ defeat has saved Iranians from the danger of domination of Mirbagheri’s extreme views.

Some hardliners who now present Mirbagheri as a danger to the foundations of the Islamic Republic’s political and religious establishment allege that his supporters have plans to pitch him as the country’s future Supreme Leader. They also warn that under his leadership religious fundamentalism and extreme anti-Western views will prevail in the Islamic Republic.

Some others allege that Mirbagheri’s vilification is another “Khamenei gambit” meant to make him and his son Mojtaba look “moderate” in comparison and to eliminate him as a leadership contender and rival to Mojtaba.

Supporters of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf blamed Jalili and his political sponsors, the ultra-hardliner Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and the recently established Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (MASAF), for the defeat of the ‘revolutionary front’ in the elections. They were among the first to condemn Mirbagheri and his views on social media post elections.

Paydari and MASAF members often reiterate Mirbagheri’s apocalyptic, anti-western political, and anti-modernity views in their speeches and propaganda. Members of both groups have taken over many top and sensitive positions in the government in the past few years and formed a very influential minority in the parliament.

Some activists, politicians, and social media users in Iran warn that the unprecedented rise of such sentiments could entail serious violence against migrants and turn into a major security problem.

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the six candidates in the recent snap presidential elections, promised in his campaign speeches and debates to build walls along Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to stop the influx of migrants and to expel “all illegal immigrants”.

Pezeshkian, too, promised that his future government would block the borders to end the influx of migrants, register those who are already in Iran, and negotiate with European countries to either accept some of them as refugees or pay Iran for some of the costs for hosting them.

He argued that the West had to accept responsibility for its actions in Afghanistan which he said had caused millions of Afghans to seek refuge in Iran. “There is no reason the Iranian people must pay the costs of the wrong policies of others,” he said in a series of tweets before the elections.

Ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili who lost the runoff vote to Pezeshkian, however, avoided taking a clear stance on the matter. Jalili’s supporters accuse Ghalibaf and his supporters of inciting “Afghan phobia”. There have been allegations that some Afghans played an active role in Jalili’s campaign and promoted him on social media.

Jalili and other ultra-hardliners largely support the policies of the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s government which was accused of supporting an “open borders” policy with a hidden agenda.

They often highlight the role of the Afghan Hazara Fatemiyoun Brigade which was organized and trained by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to fight in Syria. There have been allegations that they want to bolster Iran’s military by recruiting more young Shiite Hazara Afghans.

Some critics allege that authorities under Raisi actively encouraged the growth of the Afghan population with incentives such as subsidized energy and food to remedy Iran's problem of population decline.

Those who demand the “expulsion” of Afghans accuse the government of letting them benefit from billions of dollars in food, fuel, and other subsidies. The influx of perhaps more than six million Afghans in the past three years has pushed up housing costs by increasing demand in the market, and taking jobs from Iranians.

There have also been widespread but unsubstantiated rumors that migrants are spreading various infectious diseases among Iranians including a claim refuted by health officials that leprosy is spreading in Iran due to Afghan migration.

Anti-Afghan sentiments are hugely promoted in Persian language social media with several dedicated hashtags including “Expulsion of Afghans is a national demand”.

Campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who have also launched an online petition often highlight crimes allegedly committed by migrants including murder, rape, and child abduction.

Some campaigners for the expulsion of Afghans who also oppose the clerical rule in Iran are accused of expressing racist and ultra-nationalistic views on social media.

There have also been reports of indiscriminate aggressive behavior towards Afghans, irrespective of their residence status. There are also some reports of signs of “No Afghan entry” being displayed by real-estate agents.

A recent video clip on social media shows a young woman in a Tehran subway forcing an elderly Afghan woman to give up her seat, sparking widespread debate online.

Iranian media report that the Afghan population has overtaken Iranians in some deprived areas in and around the capital and other major cities as well as some smaller cities and towns.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) banned Afghans from living in 16 provinces in April 2023.

Afghans first came to Iran as refugees in the early 1980s and later as economic migrants, but their numbers rarely rose above two million before the Taliban takeover of the government in Afghanistan in 2021. Around 780,000 have refugee status and are not considered illegals.

The 2016 census found the presence of over 1.5 million Afghans in Iran. Officials admit that the number of Afghans has hugely increased since then. There are unsubstantiated claims that there may be as many as 15 million Afghans in Iran now.