Khatami says discontent in Iran extends beyond the 60% who didn't vote

The prevailing consensus among Iranian outlets is that there is little chance of Joe Biden's re-election and that a Trump presidency would be detrimental to the Islamic Republic. While some emphasize potential "disasters" in Iran's foreign relations, others propose solutions to mitigate these challenges.

Furthermore, analyses delve into the potential outcomes should either of the Iranian handpicked presidential candidates, Masoud Pezeshkian or Saeed Jalili, be elected.

Mohammad Ali Sobhani, a former Iranian ambassador in Lebanon, explained the best and worst scenarios for Iran's relations with the US in an article published on the “reformist” news outlet Etemaad on Tuesday.

In the best case, if "moderate governments" are in power in both countries—such as "reformists in Iran" and Biden in the US—it would be easier to reduce problems and reach agreements, creating a smoother path for diplomacy and cooperation, according to Sobhani.

In the worst case, if Jalili and Trump are in power, reaching an agreement would be much harder. Sobhani noted that Jalili's' past shows he would be reluctant to use his authority to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), even when allowed by the Supreme Leader. He warned that “Jalili's extreme views” could pose significant risks to Iran's foreign relations, making the situation more challenging.

The only reform-leaning candidate, Pezeshkian, supports the JCPOA and advocates for expanding Iran's international ties, emphasizing the economic benefits of the 2015 nuclear deal. In contrast, Jalili criticizes the JCPOA and the moderate factions' focus on relations with just "three world powers," arguing that Iran should engage with over 200 countries to explore diverse opportunities.

The JCPOA involved Iran and major world powers, including the five permanent United Nations Security Council members. Under this agreement, Iran agreed to reduce its nuclear capabilities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

However, the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 under then-President Trump, followed by the re-imposition of sanctions, strained relations and severely impacted Iran’s economy.

Former Iranian diplomat Abdolreza Farajirad warned that Trump's return could lead to broader sanctions and significantly impact Iran's oil exports. He told Fararu that even a short-term deal with the current US administration would be advantageous, arguing that securing agreements before the US elections would help Iran "be in a stronger postion against Trump."

Farajirad also claimed that such agreements would benefit the Biden administration by “providing a notable achievement before the elections.”

While Farajirad sought solutions, others, like the state-affiliated outlet Iran Online, advocated for a more aggressive stance against a future Trump administration. It emphasized "completing the cycle of nuclear deterrence" as Iran's best strategy against Trump, according to an article titled "What should we do with Trump? A must-read for Jalili and Pezeshkian."

Iran Online stated that when Trump left office, Iran had a "limited nuclear program," with uranium enrichment capped at 3.67% under the JCPOA. Now, with the potential return of Trump to the White House, Iran has enriched uranium to "60% with IR-6 advanced centrifuges" and could achieve nuclear weapons "within a few weeks," framing this as "Iran's biggest trump card against Trump."

Iran's nuclear program has expanded rapidly in recent years, with limited access and many UN inspectors being barred. In June, France, Germany, and Britain, original signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, condemned Tehran's plan to expand its uranium enrichment further. The US has also threatened to respond if Iran continues to accelerate its uranium enrichment.

Iran Online also cautioned the upcoming Iranian government, emphasizing that during Trump's first presidency, Iran faced consequences where it showed "indecisiveness" and brought the "proud American to his knees" when exerting authority. The outlet asserted that Trump withdrew from the JCPOA because he saw it as the "endpoint, the only way out, and the only irreplaceable solution for Iran." It further argued that Trump's decision to "commit the crime of Baghdad," that is, killing IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani by US drones, was a sign of "Iran's perceived vulnerability" following the protests of November 2019.

In 2019, Iran witnessed a series of nationwide protests, referred to as Bloody November, that rapidly evolved into demands for the overthrow of the government and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran Online asserted that should Donald Trump be re-elected, he would confront Iran with “limited available options."

The semi-official Mehr News Agency also echoed a similar sentiment, stating that "if Donald Trump wins in the upcoming US presidential elections, there is almost nothing left to impose sanctions on our country." Adding that "However, our country's efforts to neutralize sanctions are expanding day by day."

Although other outlets did not share this optimism.

Amirali Abolfath, an international relations expert, told Etemaad newspaper in Tehran that US sanctions will persist regardless of who is in the White House, noting they will "continue" and potentially "increase in numbers".

He asserted that any incoming president in Iran would be unable to effect significant changes in Iran-US relations or the nuclear issue, emphasizing the "continuity in Iran's foreign policy" due to the structure of the Iranian constitution, implying that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the ultimate decision-maker.

Abolfath also highlighted the possibility of the "snapback mechanism" being activated, irrespective of whether Jalili or Pezeshkian becomes president, mainly as the JCPOA expires in October 2025. Without a relative agreement by then, Abolfath warned that "UN sanctions will return," potentially escalating tensions between Iran and the US.

The snapback mechanism, part of JCPOA, allows any participant to restore all UN sanctions on Tehran if it deems Iran violating the agreement.

During their first televised debate on Thursday night, US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump clashed over their respective records on Iran, each accusing the other of weakness while failing to provide any clear insight into their future policy towards the Islamic Republic.

President Biden's Iran policy has faced widespread criticism for being too lenient. Critics say that the Biden administration has not enforced the oil export sanctions by reversing Trump's maximum-pressure approach to pursue a nuclear agreement. Additionally, prisoner swaps and waivers have freed $16 billion in previously frozen Iranian funds, funneling tens of billions of dollars into the regime's coffers.

Nevertheless, despite differences in outlook and style, both candidates seemed intent on appearing tough on Iran during their Thursday debate, particularly in the wake of the October 7 attack on Israel, which many believe would not have occurred without Tehran's support for Hamas.

“The Iranian regime has an orderly plan for the conventional destruction of the State of Israel,” said Smotrich speaking at a conference co-sponsored by the national-religious Makor Rishon newspaper and the Jerusalem College of Technology on Sunday.

According to the report of Ashkan Safaei, Iran International’s correspondent in Israel, Smotrich stated that this plan does not involve nuclear weapons. Smotrich stated that Iran wants nuclear weapons to ensure its survival.

In his speech, Smotrich detailed the strategy, which includes launching tens of thousands of missiles and rockets from various Middle Eastern locations where Iran has established military bases over the years. He indicated that this initial bombardment would be followed by coordinated ground attacks from multiple fronts, including internal fronts.

To counteract this threat, Smotrich proposed a multifaceted approach. He stated that Israel's response should be to strive to overthrow the Islamic Republic and, concurrently, neutralize all of its proxy forces in the region. He added that the response should be pursued on both political and military fronts.

Specifically, Smotrich pointed to Hamas and Hezbollah as Iran’s key proxies. He argued that Israel must first destroy Hamas "in a way that it cannot stand up and be a threat to Israel for a long time."

Additionally, he advocated for a swift and forceful strike against Hezbollah in northern Israel to incapacitate the group for at least a few years, so that it would not be a threat to Israel within Iran's broader regional ambitions.

Since the beginning of the current war in Gaza, Iran-backed Hezbollah has had daily clashes with Israeli forces along the southern borders of Lebanon.

Smotrich acknowledged that a war with Hezbollah would come at a high cost to Israel, but said “Any price we pay today will be much smaller than what we will be forced to pay in the future if we don't act."

Smotrich stated that the creation of a Palestinian state was a part of Iran's plan to destroy Israel. He emphasized that the Israeli government should fight this issue as well.

According to Ynetnews, in recent weeks, Iran has recently increased its weapons smuggling to Hezbollah, including critical air defense systems used to counter Israeli Air Force strikes in southern Lebanon.

In recent months, Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by Israel and the United States, has attempted to target Israeli army drones, achieving some success. In response, the Israeli Air Force has targeted the intercepting systems or their parent units.

On Monday, the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) reported that Hezbollah is collaborating with Iran to establish a new front against Israel in the Mediterranean to neutralize Israel’s air force capabilities. According to the report, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah fears a preemptive Israeli Air Force (IAF) strike from bases in Cyprus, a scenario IAF practiced in recent military exercises in the last year.

On June 19, Nasrallah threatened Cyprus for the first time, accusing the country of assisting Israel: “The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war.”

Last week, Nasrallah stated that the fate of the "Resistance Front"—an alliance of militant groups sponsored by Iran, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi Shiite militias—is closely tied to that of its main sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Additionally last week, amid escalating tensions, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged Iran to take all necessary measures to prevent further escalation in the Middle East.

"I promise that I will never lie and will never make a promise that I cannot keep. I will make every effort to solve the problems of poverty, unemployment, discrimination, and injustice," said Pezeshkian.

The June 28 election, now proceeding to a runoff between two candidates, recorded the lowest presidential voter turnout in the Islamic Republic's history. Over 60 percent of the electorate abstained, a 9 percent drop from the 2021 election won by the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.

Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's June 25 call for "maximum" turnout to legitimize the system, many Iranians remain apathetic. The Guardian Council, a 12-member body with the power to disqualify candidates, maintains stringent control over the electoral process.

Pezeshkian emphasized the need for economic reforms and international engagement, but he did not address how he plans to achieve these under the eyes of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate power over Iran's foreign policy.

Iran's trade is hampered by international sanctions, particularly from the United States, aimed at curbing its nuclear program and addressing its support for terror activities and its human rights abuses. The sanctions restrict Iran's access to global markets, technology, and foreign investment, further isolating its economy.

Pezeshkian further stated, "We will ensure that those who cannot afford to pay taxes are not burdened," but he again failed to provide concrete plans or resources to support his promises.

"We sell our oil wherever we want to," Owji said in a video shared by Mehr News Agency, defying sanctions which are in place to limit Iran's nuclear program. Others are in place for its support for Russia's war on Ukraine and human rights abuses at home.

Iran's oil exports plummeted from more than two million barrels per day to less than 300,000 by 2019, drastically reducing its primary source of foreign currency income.

However, following President Joe Biden's indication of a potential return to the nuclear agreement, China began purchasing large quantities of Iranian oil, with shipments reaching 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023.

Owji refrained from providing further details regarding the amounts sold or the identity of the buyers, the sales a key way to bypass sanctions and generate income for the country which is amid a dire recession.

The disclosure coincides with revelations from Majid Ansari, a member of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council who said on Monday that a clandestine group, reportedly evading sanctions, offers substantial discounts to sell Iranian oil.

He revealed that the group claims to bypass sanctions using "diversionary paths," selling 1.3 million barrels daily at discounts ranging from $15 to $30 per barrel, averaging a $20 discount.

Ansari emphasized the financial loss to the Iranian people due to such discounts, stating that the sale of 1.3 million barrels per day at a $20 discount results in a daily loss of $26 million, or over $9 billion annually, exacerbating the country's shortage of hard currencies for essential imports.

Washington re-imposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018 after exiting a 2015 nuclear pact that allowed Iran to sell its oil in exchange for constraints on its nuclear program. Consequently, Iran's list of crude buyers dwindled, with most exports directed to China and smaller amounts to regional ally Syria.

Jalili's campaign posts old videos of Pezeshkian that show him making statements about his role in hijab enforcement and purging the universities during the so-called cultural revolution of the 1980. Those close to Pezeshkian's campaign run articles to prove that Jalili is supported by one of the most fundamentalist clerics in Iran.

A specific article links Jalili to hardline cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, who was reportedly behind the chemical attacks on girls' schools in 2022 and 2023. It also claims that the ideology Jalili subscribes to is detrimental to the country's development.

Those opposed to the government-controlled election doctor and merge the pictures of the two candidates alleging that the two men are part and parcel of the same system, calling them "the two halves of the same apple."

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned the candidates against engaging in smear campaigns more than once. While groups close to their campaigns are clearly involved in these tactics, a larger political force appears to be at play. Election boycotters and foreign-based opposition forces are trying to persuade voters to stay away from the polls on Friday. According to official numbers, at least 60 percent of voters stayed home during the first round on June 28, and the opposition is aiming for an even more extensive boycott this time.

Referring to the serious divide between the majority of voters and the government, former lawmaker Gholamali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi said that even some deeply religious people are refusing to take part in the election.

Meanwhile, a report on moderate conservative Khabar Online website also highlighted the link between Jalili and Mirbagheri, dubbing Mirbagheri as the new Mesbah Yazdi, the founding father of the ultraconservative Paydari Party. Mirbagheri, who has endorsed Jalili, is known for his belief in conspiracy theories and the clash of civilizations theory.

Their ideology, the article charged, that the fundamentalist group believes it is the mission of the Islamic Republic to to change the nature of the world and to take it back to the "Islamic civilization." They call moderate Islam the "American Islam."

In another development, former President Hassan Rouhani warned "officials," presumably including Khamenei and his aides that "the coming to power of a radical government in Iran will drag the country to the brink of war, more sanctions, poverty and misery. The forming of such a government will be a loss for everyone, whether they vote or not."

Rouhani also warned the boycotters that they would bear full responsibility for the consequences of their actions. He further cautioned those who are passively observing the situation that this is a matter of war and peace, life and death, and that inaction will not protect anyone.

He described the runoff election as a choice between Pezeshkian and Jalili, framing it as a decision between realistic progress and a "wishful U-turn" that could impact the fate of the Iranian nation for at least a decade.