Ex-Speaker and Presidential Wannabe Claims Massive Public Support

Reform Front Spokesman Javad Emam on Friday nominated the Front's candidates as former Roads and Urban Planning Minister Abbas Akhundi, Member of parliament from Tabriz Massoud Pezeshkian, and former vice president Es'haq Jahangiri. Eman said that two thirds of the Front members voted for the three candidates. Now it all hinges on which one these candidates, if any, will be approved by the non-elected Guardian Council and be allowed to compete in the vote.

Earlier, the Reform Front and leading ‘reformist’ figure Former President Mohammad Khatami had said that they will not take part in the election if the Guardian Council does not endorse the qualifications of at least one of those nominated by the Reform Front.

The Reform Front is an umbrella organization of two dozens of reformist groups and political parties.

Meanwhile, conservative father figure former Majles Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, who leads one of the conservative coalitions, told Entekhab News website that "If the conservatives follow the same strategy as in the 2013 presidential election, they will bring about their own defeat by dividing into different rival groups.

In 2013, moderates and reformists joined hands and won the election while several conservative candidates who refused to form a coalition lost the presidential election to moderate Hassan Rouhani who was backed also by the Reform Camp.

Haddad-Adel warned that all the conservative candidates should try to reach an agreement over one single candidate for the entire conservative camp. He was referring to "revolutionaries" such as Roads Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash, several candidates including Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili from within the incumbent government, which is the legacy of the Raisi administration. Other conservatives include former member of Supreme Leader AIi Khamenei's office Vahid Haghanian, Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, his predecessor Ali Larijani and several other low-key conservative figures.

During a speech to the coalition of the "Revolutionary Forces," Haddad-Adel defended Ghalibaf against his political rivals who had accused him of financial corruption. Meanwhile he called for the unity of the conservative front in the aftermath of the death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May and echoed Khamenei's call for electing a revolutionary, hard-working insider as Iran's new President. He added that the presence of candidates from various political groups showed "religious democracy" in action.

Interestingly, ultra-hardliner newspaper editor Hossein Shariatmadari also backed Ghalibaf on Sunday against hardliners. He is usually seen as reflecting the thinking of Khamenei’s headquarters.

In another development, a former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi said in an interview that either Ghalibaf or Larijani are going to win the presidential election. He added that the candidacy of five of the incumbent government officials in this election is disgraceful. He also characterized the candidacy of two brothers from the same family, deputy Majles Speaker Ali Nikzad and his brother, as laughable.

Conservative political activist Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, on the other hand, said that the main competition will be between ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Majles Speaker Ghalibaf. He opined that it is unlikely the Guardian Council would endorse Larijani's qualifications.

Moghaddam argued that the Guardian Council faces a serious challenge, as disqualifying most of the 80 registered candidates is difficult, given that many are incumbent and former officials. Unlike many Iranian politicians who criticize Ghalibaf for running in the presidential election just one week after becoming Majles Speaker, Moghaddam noted that around 200 members of the Iranian parliament have backed Ghalibaf's candidacy. Nevertheless, his decision to run came as a surprise to many others.

UK maritime agencies reported on Sunday that two ships caught on fire after being hit by projectiles off Yemen's Aden, showing that Houthis controlling northern Yemen and supported by Tehran are determined to launch multiple attacks each day against international shipping.

The attacks began in mid-November after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on Muslim nations to blockade Israeli trade.

Hezbollah, controlling the southern region of Lebanon bordering northern Israel, has also intensified its rocket and missile attacks on Israel, prompting fears of an all-out war, as Israeli patience runs out with the worsening security situation.

The twin flare-ups coincided with a Western initiated censure of Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna.

A resolution tabled by Britain, France and Germany, and reluctantly backed by the United States, demanded Tehran to cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog. Such a resolution could be the prelude to a move by Western powers to refer Iran’s case back to the UN Security Council, which could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions.

Days before the censure resolution, the three European powers had written to the Security Council detailing Iran's violations of its 2015 nuclear deal, a step diplomats said aimed to pressure Tehran to resolve the issue diplomatically and to avoid reimposing UN sanctions.

The British, French and German letter did not explicitly threaten to "snap back" United Nations sanctions, but it noted that UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided that power, expires on Oct. 18, 2025.

Amidst Iran's snap presidential election campaign, the reaction to the Western move has been largely controlled. However, many outside the circle of ruling hardliners are concerned about the ramifications of the IAEA resolution.

Kourosh Ahmadi, a former Iranian diplomat based in New York, told Entekhab newspaper in Tehran, that the European move could be a prelude to tabling Iran’s case in the Security Council, because that will become impossible after Resolution 2231 expires in 2025. However, Ahmadi added that at this juncture he believes the West is simply applying pressure on Iran.

As Iran’s presidential campaign kicks off in earnest following the Guardian Council's announcement of approved candidates in the coming days, the elephant in the room remains the nuclear issue and the urgent need to lift US sanctions.

For the average Iranian citizen, the prolonged economic crisis has made the main question whether there will be a reduction in sanctions. This would require Iran to demonstrate real flexibility, a decision that ultimately lies with Khamenei rather than the future president. However, the outcome of the highly regime-controlled election could provide hints about his thinking.

Commentators in Tehran tell the local media that former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, is a strong candidate because he enjoys the backing of hardliners. Two other strong candidate are Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former Speaker Ali Larijani, both enjoying the backing of the wider conservative circle.

While Jalili is seen as a risky persona because of his staunch opposition to any deal with the West, Ghalibaf and Larijani are perceived as more ‘moderate’ figures. All three, however, are loyal to Khamenei.

If the election is managed in a way that Jalili becomes president, it would send a more negative message regarding relations with West, while the election of Ghalibaf or Larijani might be interpreted as a less provocative choice. The election of a hardliner other than Jalili is also possible, but overall, the new president must follow what is decided in Khamenei’s headquarters.

Bagheri, speaking to CNN TÜRK, said, "They [Israel] should not forget the defeat in 2006. If they want to fall from the Gaza swamp into the Lebanese well, we do not recommend it," he stated, referring to the second Lebanon war which came to an end after UN Resolution 1701. 

Bagheri's comments were made at the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Economic Cooperation Organization of the Eight Developing Countries (D-8), during which he called for an outright boycott of Israel and levied heavy accusations against Western nations, particularly the USA and Europe, accusing them of abetting what he referred to as a "massacre" in Gaza. 

The Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, Iran's largest and most powerful proxy, has recently intensified its conflict with Israel, which was triggered after the October 7 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, the Lebanese proxy joining the bombardment of Iran's archenemy. Rising numbers of drones and missiles are being launched towards Israeli territory with mass fires being ignited across northern Israel. The conflict in the north has left 100,000 Israelis displaced and similar numbers displaced from southern Lebanon.

In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Wednesday morning that Israel is "prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north" to counter the escalating assaults.

Israeli intelligence estimates indicate that Hezbollah has stockpiled approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles in southern Lebanon, all poised to target Israel.

The ministry said the revelations of plots on Swedish soil and abroad using Swedish crime gangs are being taken "very seriously".

"It is deeply concerning that a foreign power, in this case Iran, has allegedly used criminal networks to commit or instigate crimes in Sweden. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs has summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires to stress how seriously we are taking this information," Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs’ Press Office told Iran International.

It follows recent reports from the Swedish Security Service (SÄPO), which revealed that Iran-backed terror plots aim to target Iranian dissidents in addition to Sweden's Jewish and Israeli community.

In January, an explosive device, said to be a hand grenade, was found inside the grounds of the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm and destroyed by the Swedish national bomb squad. The suspects were found to be part of a gang known as Foxtrot, hired under the behest of Tehran, according to Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.

In retaliation to the Swedish revelations, Iran summoned Sweden's temporary charge d'affaires last Saturday, denouncing the claims as "baseless" and influenced by Israel.

Last month, Mossad exposed a string of European plots funded by Tehran against Jewish and Israeli targets, including recent terror attacks at the Israeli embassy in Belgium. 

According to pro-bono Dadban Legal Group, Farhad will be serving a one-year sentence simply for advocating for justice for his brother Milad.

In April, Babol’s Revolutionary Court convicted Farhad to one year in prison.

Milad was shot by security forces at the back of his head on September 20, 2022, during Iran’s Woman, Life, Freedom, uprising in Babol, and reportedly died in hospital. Milad was killed only days before his birthday.

Farhad Zare had been repeatedly summoned and threatened by security agencies following his brother’s death.

Last month, the Babol Revolutionary Court sentenced him to one year in prison.

The charge against Farhad was reportedly “propaganda against the Islamic Republic”, a charge commonly used by the Iranian authorities against slain protestors’ families and activists.

Iran’s authorities have increasingly placed pressure on slain protestors' families, often building cases against them to stop them from seeking justice.

Moreover, on Thursday, Reza Babrnejad, the brother of another slain protestor of the 2022 protests, Mehdi Babrnejad, was arrested again after only days of being released on bail. In May Reza was reportedly arrested for allegedly posting stories on Instagram following Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter crash.

Many such families have been arrested since the uprising. Last year, at least 70 family members of slain protestors, including nine children under the age of 18 were detained between March - September 2023, according to Human Rights Organization Hengaw. Farhad was among those arrested in September 2023.

Farhad’s family has been subject to ill-treatment and harassment at the hands of the Iranian authorities. Following Milad’s death, videos emerged online of heavy state security forces at a mourning ceremony for the 40th day after Milad’s death.

Amnesty International has condemned the harassment of slain protestors' families, urging the International community to call on Iranian authorities to respect the rights of freedom of expression of the victim’s families, and “quash all unjust convictions and sentences against them and drop all charges against those facing reprisals for speaking out.”