As Iran's Reform Front finally named its candidates for the June 28 presidential election, leading conservative figures fear a coalition of reformists may overwhelm the fragmented conservative camp, as in 2013.
Reform Front Spokesman Javad Emam on Friday nominated the Front's candidates as former Roads and Urban Planning Minister Abbas Akhundi, Member of parliament from Tabriz Massoud Pezeshkian, and former vice president Es'haq Jahangiri. Eman said that two thirds of the Front members voted for the three candidates. Now it all hinges on which one these candidates, if any, will be approved by the non-elected Guardian Council and be allowed to compete in the vote.
Earlier, the Reform Front and leading ‘reformist’ figure Former President Mohammad Khatami had said that they will not take part in the election if the Guardian Council does not endorse the qualifications of at least one of those nominated by the Reform Front.
The Reform Front is an umbrella organization of two dozens of reformist groups and political parties.
Meanwhile, conservative father figure former Majles Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, who leads one of the conservative coalitions, told Entekhab News website that "If the conservatives follow the same strategy as in the 2013 presidential election, they will bring about their own defeat by dividing into different rival groups.
In 2013, moderates and reformists joined hands and won the election while several conservative candidates who refused to form a coalition lost the presidential election to moderate Hassan Rouhani who was backed also by the Reform Camp.
Haddad-Adel warned that all the conservative candidates should try to reach an agreement over one single candidate for the entire conservative camp. He was referring to "revolutionaries" such as Roads Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash, several candidates including Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili from within the incumbent government, which is the legacy of the Raisi administration. Other conservatives include former member of Supreme Leader AIi Khamenei's office Vahid Haghanian, Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, his predecessor Ali Larijani and several other low-key conservative figures.
During a speech to the coalition of the "Revolutionary Forces," Haddad-Adel defended Ghalibaf against his political rivals who had accused him of financial corruption. Meanwhile he called for the unity of the conservative front in the aftermath of the death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May and echoed Khamenei's call for electing a revolutionary, hard-working insider as Iran's new President. He added that the presence of candidates from various political groups showed "religious democracy" in action.
Interestingly, ultra-hardliner newspaper editor Hossein Shariatmadari also backed Ghalibaf on Sunday against hardliners. He is usually seen as reflecting the thinking of Khamenei’s headquarters.
In another development, a former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi said in an interview that either Ghalibaf or Larijani are going to win the presidential election. He added that the candidacy of five of the incumbent government officials in this election is disgraceful. He also characterized the candidacy of two brothers from the same family, deputy Majles Speaker Ali Nikzad and his brother, as laughable.
Conservative political activist Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, on the other hand, said that the main competition will be between ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Majles Speaker Ghalibaf. He opined that it is unlikely the Guardian Council would endorse Larijani's qualifications.
Moghaddam argued that the Guardian Council faces a serious challenge, as disqualifying most of the 80 registered candidates is difficult, given that many are incumbent and former officials. Unlike many Iranian politicians who criticize Ghalibaf for running in the presidential election just one week after becoming Majles Speaker, Moghaddam noted that around 200 members of the Iranian parliament have backed Ghalibaf's candidacy. Nevertheless, his decision to run came as a surprise to many others.
UK maritime agencies reported on Sunday that two ships caught on fire after being hit by projectiles off Yemen's Aden, showing that Houthis controlling northern Yemen and supported by Tehran are determined to launch multiple attacks each day against international shipping.
The attacks began in mid-November after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on Muslim nations to blockade Israeli trade.
Hezbollah, controlling the southern region of Lebanon bordering northern Israel, has also intensified its rocket and missile attacks on Israel, prompting fears of an all-out war, as Israeli patience runs out with the worsening security situation.
The twin flare-ups coincided with a Western initiated censure of Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna.
A resolution tabled by Britain, France and Germany, and reluctantly backed by the United States, demanded Tehran to cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog. Such a resolution could be the prelude to a move by Western powers to refer Iran’s case back to the UN Security Council, which could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions.
Days before the censure resolution, the three European powers had written to the Security Council detailing Iran's violations of its 2015 nuclear deal, a step diplomats said aimed to pressure Tehran to resolve the issue diplomatically and to avoid reimposing UN sanctions.
The British, French and German letter did not explicitly threaten to "snap back" United Nations sanctions, but it noted that UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided that power, expires on Oct. 18, 2025.
Amidst Iran's snap presidential election campaign, the reaction to the Western move has been largely controlled. However, many outside the circle of ruling hardliners are concerned about the ramifications of the IAEA resolution.
Kourosh Ahmadi, a former Iranian diplomat based in New York, told Entekhab newspaper in Tehran, that the European move could be a prelude to tabling Iran’s case in the Security Council, because that will become impossible after Resolution 2231 expires in 2025. However, Ahmadi added that at this juncture he believes the West is simply applying pressure on Iran.
As Iran’s presidential campaign kicks off in earnest following the Guardian Council's announcement of approved candidates in the coming days, the elephant in the room remains the nuclear issue and the urgent need to lift US sanctions.
For the average Iranian citizen, the prolonged economic crisis has made the main question whether there will be a reduction in sanctions. This would require Iran to demonstrate real flexibility, a decision that ultimately lies with Khamenei rather than the future president. However, the outcome of the highly regime-controlled election could provide hints about his thinking.
Commentators in Tehran tell the local media that former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, is a strong candidate because he enjoys the backing of hardliners. Two other strong candidate are Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former Speaker Ali Larijani, both enjoying the backing of the wider conservative circle.
While Jalili is seen as a risky persona because of his staunch opposition to any deal with the West, Ghalibaf and Larijani are perceived as more ‘moderate’ figures. All three, however, are loyal to Khamenei.
If the election is managed in a way that Jalili becomes president, it would send a more negative message regarding relations with West, while the election of Ghalibaf or Larijani might be interpreted as a less provocative choice. The election of a hardliner other than Jalili is also possible, but overall, the new president must follow what is decided in Khamenei’s headquarters.