Iranian Hardliner Saeed Jalili Declares Presidential Candidacy

This time, the Guardian Council has very little time for the usual machinations it is often accused of, as the law requires that a president be elected within 50 days. Unlike previous elections, there are currently no pieces on the board to arrange for the desired outcome.

The significance of which past approach the Council is likely to adopt regarding diversity of candidates is more important than which particular politicians are likely to run, moderate conservative Asr-e Iran news website wrote Sunday.

Some speculate that the Council may eliminate all candidates capable of mobilizing the electorate, including certain hardliners and ultra-hardliners, to ensure the victory of their most preferred candidate.

Another possible approach, according to media analysts, is allowing various hardliner and ultra-hardliner factions to compete relatively freely, which could result in an unpredictable outcome.

The last and least likely scenario is allowing all political groups within the establishment, including some from among the spectrum of reformists, to field their candidates and to ensure a high turnout.

The five-day period of registration is to begin on May 30 after which the Guardian Council has a week to vet candidates. So far, some controversial figures such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, once Khamenei’s favorite who fell from his favor during his second term, have implied they are ready to run. Ahmadinejad was barred from running in the past two elections.

The dilemma facing the Khamenei-appointed jurists of the Guardian Council is how to orchestrate the election so that the "desired" future president emerges from the ballot boxes while also ensuring "maximum participation" of the electorate, or at least a level of participation that does not call the legitimacy of the next president into question.

According to official figures, only 48 percent of the electorate went to the ballots in the presidential election of 2021 in which the arrangement of candidates, which included one low-profile reformist, Abdolnaser Hemmati, was meant to guarantee Raisi’s win.

Disqualified candidates included moderate former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, reformist former Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, and Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker from East Azarbaijan Province who could potentially bring some reluctant voters to the ballots. Pezeshkian on Sunday again announced his candidacy.

Turnout was 73% in the 2017 election and over 72% in the 2013 election, both of which saw Hassan Rouhani winning with over 50% and 57% of the vote, respectively.

In an unprecedented move, 13 percent of eligible voters cast blank and void votes in 2021. This was higher than votes cast for the second runner up, Mohsen Rezaei, who got 11.8 percent of the vote against Raisi’s 62 percent.

Blank and void ballots were cast by those who did not find any of the four approved candidates to their liking or were coerced into voting. Lawyers, physicians and other health workers, for instance, are intimidated into voting by being threatened with loss of their licenses.

In 2017 and 2013 elections, blank and void ballots respectively made up just 2.9 and 3.39 percent of all votes. In both elections various factions within the political establishment had their own candidates.

Khamenei and the hardliners have not appeared overly concerned about voter turnout in the past three elections since 2020. Despite a consistent decline in turnout, they continue to describe each election as "epic."

Besides behind-the-scenes instructions, Khamenei has the power to overturn the Guardian Council’s decisions with so-called “state edicts”. He reinstated two reformist candidates disqualified by the Council, Mohsen Mehralizadeh and Mostafa Moeen, with such edicts in the controversial presidential elections of 2005 which brought hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. He also reinstated Pezeshkian in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

Arash Najafi, a member of the Energy Commission at the Chamber of Commerce, told ILNA news agency that "We are easily losing our skilled and specialized workforce, and if serious action is not taken, we may face a problem in the oil human resources area."

"For every skilled worker that leaves, we lose 35 years of life," he remarked, emphasizing the severity of the brain drain. He also highlighted the vast disparity in wages that is exacerbating the situation, pointing out that a top manager in Iran earns about $1,700 a month, whereas the same role would command around $5,000 in even the most average global companies.

The disparity in living costs compared to income, especially when contrasted with places like the Emirates where expenses are similar but incomes are significantly higher, has prompted a range of professionals from nurses to technical specialists to seek better opportunities abroad, particularly in Persian Gulf countries and neighboring states.

The situation is compounded by soaring inflation rates in Iran and a disparity between income and household expenses, leading to widespread unrest.

In response to the economic pressures, energy and oil workers in Iran have organized numerous protests in recent months, demanding better working conditions such as wage increases, timely payment, insurance, transportation, food, hygiene, and accommodation facilities. 

Fattah, a former IRGC officer, is currently the head of the multi-billion-dollar economic empire controlled by Iran's Supreme Leader.

Bazrpash is the current transport minister who was aboard one of the other helicopters flying with Raisi's doomed chopper.

Zakani is also the current mayor of Tehran who dropped out of 2021 presidential race and backed Raisi.

The activists condemned the action as an "insult to those who rose chanting Woman Life Freedom to overthrow the Islamic Republic."

They emphasize that such gestures of sympathy are a betrayal to the Iranian people, particularly women and the LGBTQ+ community, who have been fighting against the Islamic Republic's brutal policies.

“Raisi's role in the execution and killing of homosexuals and queers who were unjustly killed by the judicial system of the Islamic Republic cannot be hidden,” the letter read.

The activists call on governments to take a firm stand against the Islamic Republic and cease appeasement policies, and designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

The letter includes endorsements from organizations such as Azad Queer, which is a network of Iranian queers in the Netherlands, the Organization of Iranian Rainbows, and 6rang, as well as numerous individual activists from around the world.

Following the deaths of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, western leaders have issued condolence messages that have provoked immediate and harsh criticism from Iranians and others.

According to critics, offering condolences to such a regime implicitly legitimizes its actions, such as suppressing dissent, supporting terrorism, and violating human rights in the present.

Ebrahim Raisi served on a "Death Panel" responsible for the execution of at least two thousand Iranian political prisoners during the 1980s.

As president, he was also in office at the time of the 2022 Woman Freedom Movement in Iran that was sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

According to a UN fact-finding mission in March, the Iranian regime committed crimes against humanity in its crackdown on the protests, including killings, imprisonment, torture, and sexual assaults.

On Thursday, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi requested that the UN General Assembly cancel its scheduled tribute to Raisi.

She asked UN chiefs to call Raisi by the same term that "Iranians call him: Butcher of Tehran."

At the UN Security Council meeting on Monday, a minute of silence was observed for Raisi and his delegation, and the UN flag was flown at half-mast at its New York headquarters.

Gilad Erdan, Israel's ambassador to the UN, condemned the observance and asked the council, "What's next? Will there be a vigil for Hitler? We wouldn’t be surprised.”

On Thursday, Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a former Australian hostage held in Iran for over two years, also criticized Western governments for their condolences over the death of Iran’s president, saying they lack leadership in denouncing “a man widely regarded to be complicit in mass murder.”

“Ninety-nine percent of the missiles, drones,” Biden highlighted, never reached their targets “because of the quality of our forces.”

Biden was referring to the unprecedented attack of April 13 when Iran initiated an unprecedented offensive from its territory against Israel, deploying over 350 killer drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. In response, a coalition of jets from the US, UK, France, and Jordan effectively formed a defensive barrier, thwarting the Iranian offensive.

“Thanks to the US Armed Forces, we’re doing what only America can do as the indispensable nation, the world’s only superpower,” Biden stated.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) detailed that US forces neutralized over 80 one-way attack drones, accounting for 47% of the drones launched by Iran. This marked the first-ever direct attack from Iranian soil on Israel, an action that shifted global attention from the ongoing Gaza conflict towards Iran, rallying international support for Israel and sparking widespread condemnation of Iran.

The attack was an alleged retaliation to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Following the Iranian bombardment, Israel conducted a precise counterstrike aimed at preventing further escalation into a full-scale conflict. This included targeting and destroying a component of the S-300 air defense system at the Isfahan base, a fact revealed through satellite imagery analysis.

Iran, seemingly cautious of igniting a larger regional conflict, played down the damage inflicted on its airbase and declared it would not pursue further retaliation.