Iran-Backed Houthis Threaten More Attacks On US, UK Navies

Rouhani’s disqualification is primarily attributed by local media to his perceived low performance during his presidency, the complete removal of the reformists from the political arena by the authoritarian camp, and the regime’s preference for minimal electoral participation.

However, these explanations do not fully address the core reason behind his disqualification. To comprehend this story on a broader scale, one must consider three key realities unfolding at the pinnacle of the power structure within Iran's Islamic Republic:

First, Ali Khamenei, who is currently 84 years old, has undergone significant health issues, including a surgery a decade ago. Over the past ten years, observers have witnessed a noticeable decline in his physical and mental faculties during his televised speeches. The Leader's office and the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cannot afford to be indifferent to the question of succession. Additionally, during the later stages of leadership in dictatorial regimes, as was evident in the final years of Ayatollah Khomeini's rule, influential figures within the system tend to play a more pivotal role in determining the future leader.

Second, over the past decade, there have been four significant and somewhat unpredictable disqualifications in Iran. These include the disqualification of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for the presidency in 2013, Hassan Khomeini's exclusion from the Experts Assembly membership in 2015, Ali Larijani's disqualification for the presidency in 2021, and now Hassan Rouhani's disqualification from the Experts Assembly membership. These figures hold influential positions and have the potential to impact various aspects of the establishment, including the issue of succession. Their disqualification effectively marginalizes them and removes them from the political landscape.

Third, Both Hassan Khomeini and Sadegh Larijani emerged as serious contenders for leadership positions over the past decade, owing to their age, political profiles, and positions within the seminary. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder, currently teaches advanced jurisprudence courses and represents the reformist camp's candidate for the leadership role. Sadeq Larijani, the son of Mirza Hashem Amoli (a prominent Shia source of emulation) and the son-in-law of Vahid Khorasani (a high-ranking Shia authority in Qom Seminary), held influential positions within the traditionalist Islamist camp.

Nevertheless, individuals loyal to the Supreme Leader have sought to obstruct the ascent of these two figures over the past decade. Hassan Khomeini, in particular, has faced verbal attacks from Basij members and government insiders during official ceremonies, especially on the anniversary of his grandfather's death. Khamenei's supporters have accused him and his family of leading an aristocratic lifestyle. His disqualification has dashed the hopes of his followers to influence the Experts Assembly after Ali Khamenei's eventual passing.

Sadeq Larijani was abruptly removed from his position as head of the judiciary in 2021, prior to the end of his usual ten-year term. A high-profile corruption case involving one of his deputies was publicized at that time. Furthermore, he was ousted from the Guardian Council. Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the Qom's Instructors Association, publicly criticized Larijani for establishing an opulent office in Qom. Presently, he heads the Expediency Council but is largely sidelined by other institutions.

The perception of Ali Khamenei's impending demise has led to the elimination of potential rivals to Mojtaba Khamenei, his son and likely successor. Those who could have played a significant role in the Experts Assembly after Khamenei's demise have been sidelined. The establishment seeks individuals who will align with Mojtaba's vision and ensure a smooth transition to the throne, unopposed.

The existence of single-candidate elections, such as those in South Khorasan province during this term, where Ebrahim Raisi was the sole nominee, and numerous single-candidate elections in the past, underscores the process of reserving Experts Assembly seats for those loyal to Khamenei, his office, and the IRGC's intended successor.

Leadership succession within the Islamic Republic holds immense significance for the ruling elite, as it is a matter they cannot leave to chance. Over the past decade, they have carefully engineered individuals and institutions that could play a role in determining the future leader. The fate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime's expansionist agenda, and the future of the Shia clergy, invested in for five decades, hinge on the identity of the future leader. Trillions of dollars, either plundered or yet to be gained, hang in the balance.

The visit will take place just after Iran executed five prisoners it accused of collaborating with Israel in a sham trial. In recent weeks, the authorities have been hanging an average of three persons a day.

In a joint letter released Monday, these organizations underlined the responsibility of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights’ (OHCHR) to prevent its legitimate engagement with the Islamic Republic from becoming a tool to undermine critical mechanisms for advancing human rights in Iran.

They said they acknowledge the value of dialogue and engagement and the legitimate interest of OHCHR in engaging with authorities from all countries on human rights challenges but some factors including the timing of the visit which is only a few weeks before the start of the 55th session of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC “raise very serious concerns”.

“Informed by past experiences, we can anticipate that Iranian authorities will attempt to instrumentalise their formal engagement with your Office and use it as a propaganda tool to undermine support for these existing and very needed monitoring, reporting and investigative mechanisms established by the HRC,” the letter said while urging Al-Nashif to reconsider the timing of her visit and implement a robust strategy to mitigate this risk.

Other civil society groups, political figures, and human rights activists have also made similar appeals to Al-Nashif.

In a message addressed to Al-Nashif on her Instagram Thursday, Iranian Peace Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi pointed out that ahead of her visit to Iran at least four prisoners including a protester, Mohammad Ghobadlou, and a Kurdish political prisoner, Farhad Salimi, were executed last week after unfair trials and in violation of the Islamic Republic’s own laws.

Ebadi urged Al-Nashif to cancel her visit in protest to “extra judicial and increasing executions to prevent the regime from taking advantage of it and using it for propaganda.

Some have also urged the UN official to refuse to wear the hijab during her visit as Iranian authorities require.

“Remember that dozens of women were killed in the struggle against compulsory hijab, and dozens of men who stood up together with Iranian women lost their lives in the hands of the Islamic Republic when you wear a headscarf to please the officials of the Islamic Republic,” some family members of the victims of the downing of Flight PS752 by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) wrote in an open letter to Al-Nashif.

The Campaign to Free Political Prisoners in Iran urged Al-Nashif to set four preconditions for her visit to Iran, namely, independent visits to prisons, independent meetings with political prisoners sentenced to death, and to publicly announce that she will not wear the hijab during her visit.

UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Marta Hurtado told Radio Farda, the Persian Service of Radio Free Europe in Prague on Tuesday, that the aim of Al-Nashif’s visit to Iran is investigating the possibility of chances for improvement of human rights situation in Iran. She added that it is important to look for ways to discuss these concerns, she said.

In June 2023 Al-Nashif presented a report to the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Wednesday saying that the situation in the Islamic Republic is aggravated against the backdrop of continuously worsening socio-economic conditions and sanctions. However, Tehran always engaged in serious rights violation even during better economic periods.

The report examined developments since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini in September in the custody of the morality police that sparked widespread protests throughout the country and said there had been a spike in death sentences and executions during that period.

The group said in a statement that its decision aimed at preventing "embarrassment" to the Iraqi government, as President Joe Biden said he had made up his mind about responding to those who were behind a deadly attack on US troops.

The decision follows the killing of three US troops in a drone attack near the Jordan-Syria border - an attack that the Pentagon said bore the "footprints" of Kataib Hezbollah, though a final assessment had not yet been made. However, after three days, the White House is yet to order a military response.

Founded in the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah is one of the elite Iraqi armed factions closest to Iran.

It is the most powerful armed faction in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of hardline Shi'ite armed groups that have claimed more than 150 attacks on US forces since the Gaza war began in early October.

Iraq's government is backed by parties and militias close to Iran, though not directly by the hardline groups that have been firing on US forces, Western and Iraqi officials say.

Baghdad has condemned the attacks while also saying regional escalation would continue as long as the Gaza war went on.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin vowed on Monday the US would take "all necessary actions" to defend its troops after the deadly drone attack, even as President Joe Biden's administration stressed it was not seeking a war with Iran.

Iranian sources told Al-Jazeera Arabic that “The US sent more than one message to Tehran over the past two days via third parties.”

The report adds that Tehran rejected Washington's threats and said targeting its territory is a red line, and crossing the line would be met with an appropriate response.

“Tehran's message said that it does not want a war with Washington either, but it will forcefully confront any American adventure.”

Iranian-backed militants carried out a drone attack on US troops in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border, resulting in the deaths of three US service members and injuring over 40 others with five suffering from traumatic brain injuries.

Since October, there have been over 160 recorded attacks targeting American soldiers in Iraq and Syria. However, less than ten percent of the attacks have been retaliated against. Critics of Biden argue that it is precisely such an imbalance in aggression that has resulted in the loss of three soldiers' lives.

The incident marked the first deadly strike against US forces since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October, signaling a significant escalation in the tensions gripping the Middle East.

Biden, speaking to reporters as he left the White House on a campaign trip to Florida, did not elaborate on his decision, which came after consultations with top advisers at the White House.

On Sunday, Biden blamed Iran-backed militant groups for the attack, but it is not clear if he intends to retaliate directly against Iran or its proxy forces. Many lawmakers and former officials have urged a direct response to deter Tehran from further attacks. Since mid-October, the militant groups have launched 160 attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria.

He said the United States does not need a wider war in the Middle East, echoing comments from other officials on Tuesday that the United States does not want a war with Iran.

Three days after the drone attack that killed three and injured 40 US service members, Biden has been weighing his options and the expectation has been that there will be retaliatory strikes, but the timing of the response has been unclear.

"I don't think we need a wider war in the Middle East. That's not what I'm looking for," said Biden.

Biden replied "yes" when asked if he had decided how to respond to the attacks.

Asked if Iran was responsible, Biden added: "I do hold... them responsible in the sense that they're supplying the weapons" to those who carried out the attacks.