Water Reservoirs In Tehran On Decline
As Iran’s water crisis continues, Tehran’s dams are experiencing massive declines.
As Iran’s water crisis continues, Tehran’s dams are experiencing massive declines.
According to official government statistics, the volume of reservoirs in five of Tehran's dams has experienced a sharp decrease of 31 million cubic meters.
The semi-official ISNA news agency published a report on Monday attributing the decline to a combination of reduced rainfall in Tehran and the impact of climate change. As a result, the dams in the city are now holding considerably less water than in the previous year.
Out of the five dams under scrutiny, only Amir Kabir dam in Karaj, west of Tehran, stands as an exception, boasting a substantial increase in water volume. The reservoir at Amir Kabir dam currently holds 154 million cubic meters of water, representing a 28% growth compared to the previous year when it contained 125 million cubic meters.
However, the situation is markedly different for other dams in Tehran, as they continue to grapple with declining water levels.
Iran's water shortage problem has reached critical levels, prompting the Minister of Energy to pledge to address water tensions in some Iranian cities. Regrettably, despite this promise, reports indicate that water scarcity has spread to a vast majority of provinces, leaving only seven provinces unaffected.
In an alarming revelation, the Ministry of Energy disclosed that as many as 10,000 villages across Iran are experiencing a shortage of drinking water. Among the worst-hit areas is Kerman province, where 669 villages are facing severe water shortages.
In an unattributed commentary earlier this month, Aftab News in Tehran said millions of Afghan immigrants consume at least $5b of around $90 to 100 billion annual subsidies that the government is spending to keep fuel, other energy and food prices down. The website suggested that this is only one of the ways in which the authorities are encouraging Afghans to stay in Iran.
The article suggested that the Islamic Republic might be facilitating Afghan immigration as a remedy to the problem of population decline. “We should not start to import a big population that lacks national and religious [conformity with the Iranian population] under the pretext that the country’s population may decline within the next few decades,” it said.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes efforts to increase the country's population are among the most urgent duties and essential policies of the Islamic Republic as the main Shia government in the Muslim world.
Aftab News is a website close to former President Hassan Rouhani and the moderate conservative Moderation and Development Party.
“It is not difficult to understand that the presence of foreign nationals is highly beneficial to some segments of the state who can use these immigrants to serve their political and ideological interests, [particularly] in areas where Iranians are less inclined to participate,” the commentary said.
Iranian authorities usually refer to Afghan immigrants and refugees as ‘foreign nationals’.
“This is a very vague statement, but it is probably suggesting that authorities are hoping that immigrants, Shiite Afghans in particular, will fight for the regime should there be a war as some of them, the Fatemiyoun brigade, fought for the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, because recruiting Iranians to fight in such wars in becoming more and more difficult,” a political analyst who asked not to be quoted by name told Iran International.
Thousands of Afghans fleeing the economic hardships under the Taliban enter Iran daily from official border points or illegally from other areas along the 900 km border to find work in Iran to support their families back home or to continue their journey towards Europe.
In April 2021 Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said one million more Afghans had entered Iran since the Taliban took power in August the previous year, bringing the number of refugees and economic migrant to five million. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Only 780,000 of Afghans residing in Iran are recognized as refugees. Most other Afghans are considered economic migrants who have been an important workforce in Iran.
The article also claimed that the number of Afghans has uncharacteristically increased in several Iranian cities including Qom where it said Afghans have been given the right to legally purchase property. Qom in central Iran is home to Iran's largest religious seminaries where many foreign nationals including Shia Afghans study.
Allowing Afghans to buy property in Qom, it suggested, is proof that there is no resolve in related government agencies to control the Afghan immigration to Iran.
The article also alleged that lack of control at eastern borders of the country, issuing thousands of tourist visas every day when applicants do not intend to return to their home country, automatic renewal of tourist, pilgrimage and other types of visas, elimination or reduction of cash fines for illegal entry and stay, illegal immigrants’ easy access to various services including education and healthcare “indicate targeted planning.”
Speaking on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS program, Blinken announced that “We’re now in a place where we’re not talking about a nuclear agreement. We are very clearly making it known to them that they need to take actions to de-escalate, not escalate, the tensions that exist in our relationship across a whole variety of fronts.”
Iranian officials and government media have yet to react to Blinken’s statement. Official and semi-official government media were silent on Monday but a ‘reformist’ website in Tehran, not directly controlled by the government, published the news about his remarks with a clear distortion.
Speaking about long negotiations in 2021 and 2022 that came to a deadlock last September, Blinken told CNN that “An agreement was on the table. Iran either couldn’t or wouldn’t say yes.” However, Etemad Online translated the sentence to, “Iran has not made a decision yet.”
Blinken did not explain what de-escalation means from the Biden administration viewpoint. Clearly, high levels of uranium enrichment and stockpiling fissile material for nuclear bombs is the most provocative policy Tehran currently pursues. But is the administration also telling the Islamic Republic they have to also de-escalate in their provocations in the region, such as attacks on US forces and open incitement of terror attacks on Israel?
There is also the issue of Iran supplying kamikaze drones to Russia that the administration has said is one of its pre-conditions for resumption of full nuclear talks. So far, Iran has shown no inclination to de-escalate in any of these areas.
Blinken also did not say what the United States is promising Iran in return for de-escalatory steps. Certainly, Tehran would demand the lifting of at least some sanctions. Already, the Biden administration has not been rigorously enforcing existing oil export sanctions that has allowed Iran to increase its exports to as high as 1.5 million barrels a day. Before former President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, Iran was shipping around two million barrels. One can argue that Iran has almost overcome the oil sanctions, although US banking sanctions are still deterring most banks in other countries from doing business with Iran.
But if we assume that de-escalation applies only to less enrichment or a cap of 60-percent uranium purity in exchange for lifting some critical sanctions, then that was Iran’s plan all along. In December 2020, the Iranian parliament passed legislation to enrich at higher levels to force the US to lift sanctions. In fact, the bill was called the ‘Strategic Action to Eliminate Sanctions and Defend Iranian Nation's Interests.’
That negotiating tactic was initiated a month earlier in November by parliament, when Joe Biden won the presidential election and Tehran was certain that his administration was determined to reverse Trump’s decision and revive the JCPOA.
Now, the administration just hopes for de-escalation while it knows that Iran will use every means of pressure to project power.
“We are continuing to work out, to develop, to flesh out every possible option for dealing with the problem if it asserts itself,” Blinken said.
Earlier this month Iran tried to seize to commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and the US Navy intervened to prevent it. Immediately plans were put in motion to reinforce the US naval presence in the region, dispatching more warplanes and warships.
Iran will not confront the United States where a clear deterrent signal has been issued. It most probably will hit back elsewhere or use new tactics.
