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During the past week, an increasing number of analysts and political commentators in Iran have pointed out that some of Tehran's expectations including the lifting of all sanctions and demanding guarantees of a permanent US commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) might be farfetched.

It is not yet clear whether they are urging the government to make life easier for Iranians or it is the government that directs the commentators to make remarks politicians might want to use to justify a dramatic change in their positions once nuclear talks resume at the end of November.

Hardline analyst Mehdi Poursafa wrote in a commentary published by IRGC-linked Fars news agency on November 14 that "Negotiations only aiming at lifting the sanctions will not bear any particular fruit when looked at from a legal standpoint." He suggested that "instead, Iran should make sure that it has some verifiable financial gains."

Safapour argued that the United States has regularly awarded exemptions to Iran sanctions, allowing limited oil exports and natural gas sales. He implied that the same approach could apply to some of the current sanctions in the future.

It appears that analysts like Safapour would be happy with such exemptions. He also mentioned the example of US exemptions about trade with China regardless of sanctions imposed in the 1980s following the Tiananmen Square atrocities.

The biggest advantage Iranian negotiators can gain in the next round of negotiations with the West is "a framework that enables Iran to benefit from trade deals with the West", Safapour maintained, regardless of formal commitments.

Meanwhile, moderate conservative Khabar Online summarized debates on Clubhouse among Iranian analystsabout the same matter. Hassan Lasjerdi, one of the editors of the website said that negotiators from all sides normally brag about their expectations during the weeks before talks begin. He said most of the preconditions, including lifting all the sanctions before negotiations start are not achievable. Lasjerdi said he was sure negotiators' remarks will become more reasonable once the talks start.

Mehrdad Pashangpour, a political analyst also opined that the call for the lifting all the sanctions against Iran is "a good political bluff."

Political activist Hadi Mousavi said individuals around former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, including Bagheri, have begun thinking that the nuclear issue is not the main topic of the upcoming talks. It is a pretext based on which other matters could be discussed between Iran and the West.

He argued that the United States gave as many concessions to Iran as it could during the previous rounds of talks and now it is Iran that should be ready to give concessions. As a matter of fact, Mousavi said, because of opposition to the JCPOA in the US Senate, America might even take back some of the concessions it had previously offered.

Mohammad Mohajeri, another editor at Khabar online said that Zarif and his team were against the December 2020 legislation that called for the reduction of Iran's commitments under the JCPOA while hardliners at the time supported the bill. Mohajeri said that now the hardliners have also realized that the legislation is not in Iran's best interest, and it is likely to be overturned overnight with a decree from the Supreme Council of National Security.

Oddly enough, while reformists and conservatives alike highlighted Raisi’s shortcomings, his only defendant appears to be his father-in-law, the firebrand Friday Prayers Imam of Mashhad in northeastern Iran.

Reformist daily newspaper Sharq in its Twitter account quoted Alamolhioda as having said on Friday that "Problems cannot be sorted out within a hundred days, although one can begin to move toward an improvement." However, Alamolhoda did not say whether Raisi has made the move yet. Meanwhile, Tehran's Friday Prayers Imam Seddighi attributed all economic problems as well as water shortage to the "sins committed by young Iranians."

Reformist analyst Abbas Abdi, told conservative daily Sobh-e No in an interview that there were three positive points in Raisi's track record during the past 100 days: "His provincial visits, boosting nationwide vaccination against COVID-19, and refraining from badmouthing Iranian and foreign individuals and organizations."

However, Abdi warned that that the people might be soon disillusioned with the president’s provincial visits if they see no improvement in their situation. Meanwhile, many critics have pointed out that the progress in vaccination is being highlighted after months of delays in the purchase of vaccines from abroad.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banned American and British vaccines in January, thwarting the national vaccination effort until August, when Raisi took office.

Abdi criticized Raisi for his failure to define and pursue a clear a foreign policy, key to solving economic problems, and to sort out issues in the country's domestic politics which is most prominently evident in the appointment of officials' relatives to key posts in the government mindless of their lack of qualifications.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Noori, a conservative lawmaker in an interview with moderate website Rouydad24 said that "the country's economy is facing a major crisis and criticism of the Raisi administration is gaining momentum on a daily basis." He also criticized Raisi for his provincial visits saying that "It is good that he visits the provinces, but it is not good that he says he visits to find out about their problems." He added that it is regrettable the Raisi administration has started its fourth month in office failing to stabilize skyrocketing prices.

Noori added: "Every day if you listen to parliament proceedings on the radio you will hear conservative lawmakers complaining against the administration's shortcomings." He warned that "There is a limit to the lawmakers' patience."

A similar warning was made by Abdi who said Raisi should note that his honeymoon with the Majles (parliament) is going to end soon.

Like many other conservative and reformist critics, Noori charged that "Raisi has no plan to solve any problem." He added: "The administration has still not responded to lawmakers' questions about how it is going to tackle the budget deficit and how it is going to regulate the markets. And there is no indication that the government is going to take the initiative about problems such as the JCPOA and FATF."

The lack of a plan on the part of the government to solve the country's problems was also highlighted in reformist figure Ali Soufi's article about Raisi's 100 days in office. Soufi said that this will badly harm the government's credibility. Meanwhile, like many other critics affiliated with various political groups, Soufi also denounced nepotism in the government.

Earlier, another lawmaker, Massoud Pezeshkian had warnedthat if these problems are not solved within a reasonable period of time, the nationwide protests that shook Iran in 2018 and 2019 are likely to reoccur.

Massoud Mirkazemi’s statement on Sunday came after the legislature refused to give priority to a government budget amendment bill that would eliminate a subsidy in the form of cheap dollars for importing essential goods.

Cheap dollars are provided to importers at 42,000 rials, instead of the current free market rate of 280,000 rials to one US dollar. The government has spent an average of $8 billion a year since April 2018 to finance the subsidized essential imports. The elimination of the subsidy would lead to higher food prices, which already average a more than 60-percent inflation compared to last year.

A further jump in food prices might have political consequences for the Islamic Republic’s government that has so far failed to contain the economic damage from US sanctions imposed by former president Donald Trump, who withdrew form the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is called.

Mirkazemi told parliament that drought has upended the government budget plan to appropriate enough money for essential imports. Food production in Iran has seriously declined this year, requiring more grain and animal feed imports.

“We were supposed to buy 11.5 million tons of wheat from Iranian farmers, but so far just 4.6 million tons has become available, and we need to import another 8 million tons until March to have the needed reserves,” Markazemi told lawmakers.

He added that in addition to drought, higher global inflation has also raised the cost of subsidizing food prices. “Oil seeds that we were buying for $433 a ton last year, cost $697 now. Cooking oil base that was $746 last year costs $1,450 now.” The same applies to corn feed and wheat that has jumped from $206 per ton to $340.

The head of the budget office said that while Iran planned to spend $8 billion on subsidized essential imports in the current Iranian year, the cost has jumped to $18 billion, “which is an impossibility for the government.”

Mirkazemi pleaded with lawmakers that the government needs to phase out the subsidy and instead pay a direct handout of 1.1 million rials (around $4) per person to 60 million Iranians monthly.

The difference for the government is that subsidizing imports needs foreign currency while paying rials to people simply needs printing more money. That would worsen inflation but the government can try to muddle its way through.

Iran has lost most of its oil revenues due to US sanctions and although it manages to sell around 500,000 barrels a day to China through intermediaries, that is a far cry from more than 2 million barrels it was exporting before the sanctions. Iran’s economy and government operation have remained heavily reliant on oil income, with little foreign investment and limited non-oil exports.

The only salvation for the Islamic Republic is to reach a quick deal with the United States over its nuclear program and have sanctions lifted. Talks are set to resume in two weeks but Iranian negotiators seem to have hardened their position.

The quakes measured 6.3 and 6.4 magnitude, jolting the province of Hormozgan, state TV said, and the tremors were felt across the gulf in Dubai. The first tremor occurred at 15:36 local time, and the second one followed after one minute, Fars news website said.

The head of Iran’s Red Crescent in the region was quoted as saying that they were strong tremor with potentially devastating damage.

"The quake was felt in several southern Iranian cities in the Hormozgan province," a local official told state TV.

The European Mediterranean Seismological Centre put the magnitude of one of the quakes at 6.5 at a relatively shallow depth of 10 km (6 miles).

Mehrdad Hassanzadeh, director of Hormozgan’s emergency services said telephone and internet services have been disrupted in the region. The tremor was felt in a wide area of southern Iran.

"It was felt in northern and eastern side of the United Arab Emirates without any effect," the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology said in a tweet.

With reporting by Reuters

The bill proposed by President Ebrahim Raisi is an amendment to the current year's budget law to allow the government to stop allocating cheap dollars for importing basic commodities. These include cooking oil, animal feed, medicine and medical equipment.

The government has said that instead, it is planning to pay a direct monthly cash handout of 1.1 million rials (less than $4) to 60 million Iranians whose income level is considered low.

The subsidy started when the national currency began to lose value in early 2018, raising food prices. The cheap dollars were provided to importers at 42,000 rials, instead of the current free market rate of 280,000 rials to one US dollar.The government has spent an average of $8 billion a year since April 2018 to finance subsidized essential imports.

Before the parliament took vote on the urgency of the controversial bill Sunday morning, a member of the Planning and Budget Committee, Ehsan Arkani, claimed that the government had retracted its bill.

The parliament, however, voted to decide the urgency of the bill. Lawmakers voted against not only the bill’s double-urgency but also single-urgency. Double-urgency, if approved, meant the bill would have been debated and put to vote within 24 hours while single-urgency would have given the bill priority over other bills and motions on parliament's agenda. To kick back the bill means it might languish until April, after the start of the Iranian new year.

Eliminating the “cheap dollar’ subsidy would raise prices of essential goods by five to six times but would also help make up for some of the huge budget deficiency the government is grappling with and somewhat slow down inflation.

The main reason for the government's insistence on doing away with the scheme is remedying the budget deficit, conservative Alef website argued. "All other reasons offered by administrations [in the past and now] are secondary."

Alef also argued that although reforming the exchange rate for importing basic commodities is defendable, those who oppose it now are worried about when and how such a reform should be carried out to prevent undesirable consequences such as cash flow problems for importers.

Higher prices can also push down consumption of protein and dairy products, the article said, and affect production, employment, and even people's health. Payment of cash handouts, also, could backfire and push up the annual inflation rate which now stands at around 45%.

Putting the budget law amendment bill on the back burner means the government will have to resort to other measures, such as borrowing from the Central Bank, to remedy the current year's budget deficit. The Central Bank in turn has no reserves and has to print money, fueling inflation.

Meanwhile, the national currency has continued to plunge against the dollar as the country awaits the resumption of nuclear talks with world powers in Vienna on November 29. The rial fell to the lowest point in the past twelve months Saturday by crossing the 285,000 mark against the US dollar.

The official news agency IRNA's tweet 11 November about unfreezing of $3.5 billion of Iran's funds blocked in other countries has done very little to reassure the market and stop the further depreciation of the rial. An officials of the Iran-Iraq trade chambers said Sunday that Iraq has not released any funds. The head of Iran-South Korea chamber also said Saturday that South Korea has not released any of the Iranian funds frozen in that country.